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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #61 (permalink)  
Old 07-05-2007, 07:15 PM
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murali77 can only hope to improve
Default EB-2 will worse than EB3

I agree , a lot of people stuck in PBEC applied EB2 in PERM and later ported their dates over.
Mine in Dec 2005 EB2...good only knows when it will be current again. I am guessing June-July 2009.

EB2 - PD Dec 2005.
I-140- Approved in Sep-2006.

Earlier
EB3 - July 2003 LC approved
I-140 denied coz the company sucked.
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  #62 (permalink)  
Old 07-05-2007, 07:37 PM
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mrow is on a distinguished road
Unhappy I was a victim of that retrogression phase

When that happened the USCIS was about 2 months away from processing my EB3 485. Then it got stuck for 2 years when the DOS made it Unavailable and the USCIS wasted tens of thousands of EB numbers for the subsequent 2 years due to poor estimation. If there is a lawsuit then maybe there will be better accountability from them.
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  #63 (permalink)  
Old 07-05-2007, 07:56 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gondalguru
Do u really think the EB-2 india will be around March 2005 when new quota opens? My guess is that it will be around June 2003.
You must remember that until this may it was at January 2003 and it stayed there for almost 8 months. Plus now as BEC working hard many new I-140s with older PD will be in line.

I am in EB2 catagory with PD of September 2004.
Nut quite true Gondalguru. The following are oversights on your part in this analysis.

1) Current H1bs are 65k plus 20K(US masters) plus another 25-30K(Non profits). These are also unfortunately mostly Indians and Chinese.

2) There is a route from L1 visa to green card as well. I don't need to tell you the origin of most people who comes here on L1s.

3) O1 visas, NIWs, ORs etc are alternative routes also heavily dominated by people from Asia.

As someone did say, the H1b bulge in 2001-2 was not followed up with a corresponding increase in green card numbers. In addition the flows in the alternative categories has certainly increased over the last 3-4 yrs. The inefficient EB visa use, and the siphoning off of some numbers/processing resources for schedule A workers are additional issues. The issues of Labour Subs, and people switching EB catogories further complicates the issue.

This is clearly a complex issue, but in my view, I would be thrilled if we get an EB2 India cut off date imposed in Oct. 2007 of anything later than Jan 2003. And I don't think we can expect anything earlier than a year earlier for EB3 India.

Last edited by alterego; 07-05-2007 at 08:02 PM.
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  #64 (permalink)  
Old 07-05-2007, 08:13 PM
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Default No they did not!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ck_b2001
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bu...etin_2539.html

Look at Jul 05 VB. They did the same thing and made all categories current. I guess they need 3 months to use all numbers. They must have recieved many applications and hence in Oct 05 it severly retrogressed and moved slow from there on. It took almost 2 yrs to come out of that and i guess uscis did not want to make same mistake of retrogretting the dates even further than what it is in Jun 07 and look worse in FY2008. However the are responsible for creating emotional trauma for many of us.

We should expect much better now. since no number will be used in next 3 months and no new backlog will be created, i am pretty sure it will come out "C" or significantly moved forward for many categories around Sep 15.

Hang in there.

Look again. They made all EB2 current, and all EB3 Unavailable. I remember that very well. That was before EB2 retrogression became an issue about 2 months later.
The current development is completely different.
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  #65 (permalink)  
Old 07-05-2007, 11:06 PM
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Thumbs up

We must take into account that as far as EB2 India is concerned the dates remained virtually stuck for 8 months around the Jan03 cutoff. Now from Jan03 to Mar05 were the pre-PERM days a.k.a BEC people who could not apply due to retrogression.

Of those it is very fair to assume that by Jun07 most of the people stuck in BEC with EB2 India PD's from Jan03 to Apr04 had their labor cleared (as per BEC stats). These are precisely the people, (the number of these people actually) who applied in Jun07 which would decide the demand for the Oct 07 bulletin.

As a lot 40 to 60k were already approved in Jun07, the queue moves ahead and their place taken by the above "out of BEC but newly current in Jun07" guys.

It is very pertinent to note here that the apparent deluge of applicants and the unpredictability of the flow kept the DoS from advancing the cutoff dates. When the BEC was almost done with about 15% remaining in May, DoS made the move (that is also what the DoS said). This unpredictability now does not exist in Oct ! making the picture even clearer for DoS

So, in a nutshell it all depends on the number of BEC folks who applied past month in June to come to any definite conclusion...any guess there ?



Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_chahiye
Let me guess, your PD is around march 2005?
EB-2 was jan-2003 until May. Even with 60K visas used up since then, its fairly optimistic to think there will be a 2 year jump to March-05, especially since BECs will also be all done by october, adding to the demand. mid-2004 seems more reasonable guess for EB2-India

Last edited by InTheMoment; 07-05-2007 at 11:11 PM.
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  #66 (permalink)  
Old 07-05-2007, 11:21 PM
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Default

Kinda confused. How does this portability work ? Can someone please explain ?

Thanks
rxrajamo
Quote:
Originally Posted by murali77
I agree , a lot of people stuck in PBEC applied EB2 in PERM and later ported their dates over.
Mine in Dec 2005 EB2...good only knows when it will be current again. I am guessing June-July 2009.

EB2 - PD Dec 2005.
I-140- Approved in Sep-2006.

Earlier
EB3 - July 2003 LC approved
I-140 denied coz the company sucked.
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  #67 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 03:08 AM
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seeking_GC will become famous soon enough
Default my calculations..

Joining the party a little late but I decided to do some digging based on the data posted on the DOL website.
I downloaded the 2005 and 2006 data and I filtered based on 3 criteria
1) Country = India
2) Status = Certified
3) Certified Date less than 08/23 (yes you guessed it - my PD)

I came up with approx 1100 cases.Assume around 75% of these are EB2 then thats approx 825

Now note I dont have 2004 or prior data but this doesnt look too bad does it or am I missing something BIG?? Now I know the number of people who ported their PD after PERM was introduced is an unknown but whats an approx number that we can plug in? any ideas?
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  #68 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 03:31 AM
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adde72 is an unknown quantity at this point
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by seeking_GC
Joining the party a little late but I decided to do some digging based on the data posted on the DOL website.
I downloaded the 2005 and 2006 data and I filtered based on 3 criteria
1) Country = India
2) Status = Certified
3) Certified Date less than 08/23 (yes you guessed it - my PD)

I came up with approx 1100 cases.Assume around 75% of these are EB2 then thats approx 825

Now note I dont have 2004 or prior data but this doesnt look too bad does it or am I missing something BIG?? Now I know the number of people who ported their PD after PERM was introduced is an unknown but whats an approx number that we can plug in? any ideas?
is it 05 or 06 you of 08/23 ? Can you post number of approvals for 2005 and 2006 monthly by India ,ROW

Thanks
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  #69 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 03:39 AM
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amsgc has a brilliant future amsgc has a brilliant future amsgc has a brilliant future amsgc has a brilliant future amsgc has a brilliant future amsgc has a brilliant future amsgc has a brilliant future amsgc has a brilliant future amsgc has a brilliant future amsgc has a brilliant future amsgc has a brilliant future
Default Apologize for posting it again, but this i what i found

I was looking at the PERM data, for 2005-06, and here is what I found - perhaps someone posted already:

Total cases with PD in: March 28 - Sept of 2005
-------------------------------------------
Certified: 6133.
Of these:
India: 1349
China: 868


Total cases with PD in Oct - Dec of 2005
----------------------------------------
Certified: 28980
Of these:
India: 7290
China: 2627


So, of the total cases with PD in 2005:
India: 8639
China: 3495

Has anybody looked at '04 numbers? Anybody here who can make an educated guess of how many of these are EB2?
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  #70 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 03:55 AM
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Default Here is my analysis

I am not sure amsgc how you got the 2005 Data since total record in it is just 14253 (for all status). (In the MDB file)

Here is my analysis:
FOR:
Country: India
Status: Certified


TOTAL RECORDS (2006) :22298

TOTAL RECORDS (2005) :1350

TOTAL RECORDS (2004) :43582
for ALL the COUNTRIES
(since 2004 doesn't have data for applicant country.)

Also DOL doesn't provide info for EB2 or EB3 category.

Last edited by manishs7; 07-06-2007 at 04:33 AM.
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  #71 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 04:12 AM
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Priority Date
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Jan-06
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I140 Mailed Date
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Default Including 2003 Data

For:
Country: India
Status: Certified

TOTAL RECORDS (2006) :22298 (for Country: India)

TOTAL RECORDS (2005) :1350 (for Country: India)

TOTAL RECORDS (2004) :43582 for ALL the COUNTRIES

TOTAL RECORDS (2003) :62912 for ALL the COUNTRIES


(2003 and 2004 don't have data for applicant country.)

Any Idea why there is retrogression when total quota is 1,40,000 and Country Cap is 7% (9800 for India) every year...
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  #72 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 04:18 AM
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Default More ...

For:
Country: ALL
Status: Certified

TOTAL RECORDS (2006) :79782

TOTAL RECORDS (2005) :6133

TOTAL RECORDS (2004) :43582

TOTAL RECORDS (2003) :62912


It's always less than 1,40,000 each year (at least for last 4 years)..

Why there is retrogression ???

Why AC21 is not coming into effect ???

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  #73 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 04:31 AM
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Priority Date
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Default Here is the complete for Certified Cases

For:
Country: All
Status: Certified

2006: 79782

2005: 6133

2004 :43582

2003 :62912

2002 :79784

2001: 77921

2000: 70204


It looks like artificial retrogression to me how this is possible when certified cases are always less than visa numbers available for the year (1,40,000)..

Please let me know if I am missing anything or data available in the site (http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx) is incomplete...

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  #74 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 04:40 AM
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qvadis will become famous soon enough qvadis will become famous soon enough
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by manishs7
For:
It looks like artificial retrogression to me how this is possible when certified cases are always less than visa numbers available for the year (1,40,000)..

Please let me know if I am missing anything or data available in the site (http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx) is incomplete...

First, these are only primary applicants. I guess DOL/USCIS calculates with a factor 2.5 to include all dependents. Secondly, not all of EB2 and none in EB1 (not sure about that, though) needs an LC.

Not sure what all this means in terms of numbers, though ...
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  #75 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 04:46 AM
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Priority Date
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Default Few Points

Quote:
Originally Posted by qvadis
First, these are only primary applicants. I guess DOL/USCIS calculates with a factor 2.5 to include all dependents. Secondly, not all of EB2 and none in EB1 (not sure about that, though) needs an LC.

Not sure what all this means in terms of numbers, though ...
Thanks for clarification..
Few things:
1. Not sure for EB1 but for EB2 you need LC.
2. Numbers doesn't look as scary as I earlier thought.
3. If we can get relief for dependents (no visa numbers required); a big chunk of problem can be resolved..
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