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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #76 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 03:52 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jul-06
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
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Join Date: Feb 2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manishs7
For:
Country: All
Status: Certified

2006: 79782

2005: 6133

2004 :43582

2003 :62912

2002 :79784

2001: 77921

2000: 70204


It looks like artificial retrogression to me how this is possible when certified cases are always less than visa numbers available for the year (1,40,000)..

Please let me know if I am missing anything or data available in the site (http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx) is incomplete...

wow! this is good useful data; thanks for collecting it. Wish we could break it up by country or category, but this is still useful.

For 2000-2005 this is only the number of approved labors, it does not include the ones that are still pending in BECs. On the other hand this also includes lots of cases where 485s have already been filed; so the pending labors are hopefully much lesser...
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  #77 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 04:01 AM
Member
Priority Date
:
Jan-06
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
05/30/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/03/2007
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 48
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_chahiye
wow! this is good useful data; thanks for collecting it. Wish we could break it up by country or category, but this is still useful.

For 2000-2005 this is only the number of approved labors, it does not include the ones that are still pending in BECs. On the other hand this also includes lots of cases where 485s have already been filed; so the pending labors are hopefully much lesser...

See my earlier post:

For Country: India

2006 :22298

2005 :1350


Data for 2004 to 2000 don't have country specific classification..

DOL doesn't provide EB categories; it gets classified in USCIS.
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  #78 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 04:06 AM
Member
Priority Date
:
Sep-05
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/21/2006
Chargeability
:
Germany
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/27/2007
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manishs7
Thanks for clarification..
Few things:
1. Not sure for EB1 but for EB2 you need LC.
2. Numbers doesn't look as scary as I earlier thought.
3. If we can get relief for dependents (no visa numbers required); a big chunk of problem can be resolved..
Seems, you don't need LC for EB1 and EB2(NIW), but I guess NIW's are comparably small.

However, looking at some statistics, roughly 20%-25% seem to be from Indian origin with a 7% ceiling!

(For disclosure, I am EB3/ROW)
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  #79 (permalink)  
Old 07-06-2007, 12:59 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jul-06
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,120
gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute gc_chahiye has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by manishs7
For:
Country: All
Status: Certified

2006: 79782

2005: 6133

2004 :43582

2003 :62912

2002 :79784

2001: 77921

2000: 70204


It looks like artificial retrogression to me how this is possible when certified cases are always less than visa numbers available for the year (1,40,000)..

Please let me know if I am missing anything or data available in the site (http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx) is incomplete...

The reasons for retrogression seem to be:
- as someone pointed out: with dependents, every year (except 2005) you end up nearly hitting or exceeding the 140K number. There has typically been a 1-2 year backlog anyway for people from India and China, back in the 90s (see the archived bulletins). those people have also been using up numbers.
- this data does not include categories where LC is not needed. In 2005 for instance >50K EB1 485s were filed. Every year that number seems to be between 40K-60K
- USCIS wasted a ton of numbers (89K in 2003, 48K in 2004).
- per country limits are hit when demand across the board is high, and a lot people end up in backlogs (or unable to file)


one nice thing with this forced usage of all 60K numbers this year is that across 2005,2006,2007 a total of just 10k visas have been wasted (all last year). Per ombudsmans report this last happened (lost <=10k across three years) only in 1993-94-95. So we should hopefully start seeing some ripple effect of this backlog reduction soon.
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  #80 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2007, 06:13 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Nov-05
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
04/10/2006
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/25/2007
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Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 121
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considering the following three facts

1.There has been lot of approvals in the month of june (60K)
2.There were not a lot of labor being filed in 2005 bcoz of perm compared to previous years
3.Out of the applications that uscis recieves almost 40% takes 2 years to finish FBI name check, so uscis needs to take much more applications than available visa numbers so that visas are not wasted

The EB2 india has very good chance to land somewhere in the end of 2005..
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  #81 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2007, 07:02 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Dec-05
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
12/12/2006
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
Compare
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 51
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Why is the Visa bulletin still showing C for EB2 for all categories. EB3 has been updated to U.
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  #82 (permalink)  
Old 07-08-2007, 07:17 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Dec-05
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
12/12/2006
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/02/2007
Compare
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 51
theMan is a jewel in the rough theMan is a jewel in the rough theMan is a jewel in the rough
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Actually I clicked on the link in the first post. There has been an update that this bulletin must be read in conjunction with their advisory on July 2nd. Yeah, there are no miracles, yet
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  #83 (permalink)  
Old 07-09-2007, 01:59 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Apr-04
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
United Kingdom
Processing Stage
:
I485 Mailed Date
:
06/01/2007
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 800
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theMan
Actually I clicked on the link in the first post. There has been an update that this bulletin must be read in conjunction with their advisory on July 2nd. Yeah, there are no miracles, yet
The link in the first post, like the title of this thread, is looking at the July 2005 bulletin
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