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Retrogression, priority dates and Visa bulletins Issues surrounding the retrogression of the priority dates for the various employment based categories

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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 07-02-2007, 05:05 PM
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Default Look at Jul 2005 VB

http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bu...etin_2539.html

Look at Jul 05 VB. They did the same thing and made all categories current. I guess they need 3 months to use all numbers. They must have recieved many applications and hence in Oct 05 it severly retrogressed and moved slow from there on. It took almost 2 yrs to come out of that and i guess uscis did not want to make same mistake of retrogretting the dates even further than what it is in Jun 07 and look worse in FY2008. However the are responsible for creating emotional trauma for many of us.

We should expect much better now. since no number will be used in next 3 months and no new backlog will be created, i am pretty sure it will come out "C" or significantly moved forward for many categories around Sep 15.

Hang in there.
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 07-02-2007, 05:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ck_b2001
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bu...etin_2539.html

Look at Jul 05 VB. They did the same thing and made all categories current. I guess they need 3 months to use all numbers. They must have recieved many applications and hence in Oct 05 it severly retrogressed and moved slow from there on. It took almost 2 yrs to come out of that and i guess uscis did not want to make same mistake of retrogretting the dates even further than what it is in Jun 07 and look worse in FY2008. However the are responsible for creating emotional trauma for many of us.

We should expect much better now. since no number will be used in next 3 months and no new backlog will be created, i am pretty sure it will come out "C" or significantly moved forward for many categories around Sep 15.

Hang in there.
that sounds like a positive thing. the only problem with this prediction for India is that approx 200K/yr ppl from India came on H1Bs for many years, and a very small fraction of that equals the quota for India in a given year. Clearly, retorgression will not go away so soon. Fortunately, the H1B quota is back to 65K. But for India, in the near future, the retrogression will be severe. when the VB comes out in Sept, Eb-2 will probably move to March 2005, but Eb-3 will be in 2003. China should be C in all categories in Sept.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 07-02-2007, 08:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rimzhim
that sounds like a positive thing. the only problem with this prediction for India is that approx 200K/yr ppl from India came on H1Bs for many years, and a very small fraction of that equals the quota for India in a given year. Clearly, retorgression will not go away so soon. Fortunately, the H1B quota is back to 65K. But for India, in the near future, the retrogression will be severe. when the VB comes out in Sept, Eb-2 will probably move to March 2005, but Eb-3 will be in 2003. China should be C in all categories in Sept.
Do u really think the EB-2 india will be around March 2005 when new quota opens? My guess is that it will be around June 2003.
You must remember that until this may it was at January 2003 and it stayed there for almost 8 months. Plus now as BEC working hard many new I-140s with older PD will be in line.

I am in EB2 catagory with PD of September 2004.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 02:18 AM
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Default Ummm.... no they didn't

July 05 bulletin had all EB3 categories as Unavailable, not Current. This is the same as Aug 05, Sept 05 and Oct 05 was when the retro dates kicked in.
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 07:21 AM
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2005 is key for EB2. Thats when Perm started.

There were only about 2200 Perm approvals till Oct2005.

I think either dates will move to either pre 2005 or up till jan 2006.

on querying the 2006 data it looks like 7290 perm apps were approved prior to priority date 1/1/2006 from India. The priority dates however range from 1st day of perm 03/28/2005-12/31/2005

further query-cases approved india prior to 01/01/2006

Priority date (month grouping):
March 05 -1
April 05 -13
May 05 -72
June 05 -324
July 05 -351
Aug 05 -833
Sept 05 -1172
Oct 05 -1212
Nov 05 -1541
Dec05 -1771

the main thing is will suspension of AC21 rules be in effect?

Last edited by yabadaba; 07-03-2007 at 07:24 AM.
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 07:27 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by franklin
July 05 bulletin had all EB3 categories as Unavailable, not Current. This is the same as Aug 05, Sept 05 and Oct 05 was when the retro dates kicked in.
EB3 looks pretty bad looking at that. I hope I am wrong.
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yabadaba
2005 is key for EB2. Thats when Perm started.
Hey, where did you get this information from? I would like to see the PERM approvals for 2006.

Thanks
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 09:58 AM
DSJ DSJ is offline
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http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

If you know your case number, then you can even look at salary/job/title information which could be use full information for the use of AC21.

Quote:
Originally Posted by brahmam
Hey, where did you get this information from? I would like to see the PERM approvals for 2006.

Thanks
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 10:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by yabadaba



the main thing is will suspension of AC21 rules be in effect?
what do you mean?
which rules?
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  #10 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 10:57 AM
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AC21 allows for opening up the trickle factor. unused visas from eb1 flow to eb2 down to eb3. country caps are also not enforced.

this is only possible if eb3 ROW is current... if not.. then legally they can suspend ac21...thats the reason our priority dates were moving so slowly for the last 2 years.
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 10:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DSJ
http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

If you know your case number, then you can even look at salary/job/title information which could be use full information for the use of AC21.
Thanks for the link. that was very helpful. Do you know how to make out EB2 or EB3 from that txt file? I noticed that for FY2006, there were 11,003 PERM approvals from India.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 11:00 AM
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i downloaded the perm access database from the flc website and then ran a number of queries to get the results. I then grouped it by month in order to get an understanding of how many perm approvals were there in 2005.

do remember that this dataset includes everything . i saw about 400 perm approvals for pipe fitters and welders. occupations included everything from cooks to associate professors.
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 11:02 AM
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you cannot figure out what category it is in. remember DOL just approves the labor. USCIS makes the determination for category (eb2, 3, etc)
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 11:06 AM
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True, forgot that.

seems like 1350 PERM approvals in 2005 from may through september. 11003 in 2006. for INDIA. No data for 2007 yet.

Assuming a good 30% for EB2, I think we may see significant movement in October from the current Apr 2004. The only unknown is the current labors in the backlog centers. If that's a lot and they will all be approved by Sep 2007we may not see much movement.
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 07-03-2007, 11:17 AM
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BRAHMAN...went back to the data..looks like they were 22000+ approvals for India and Certified in 2006

Also i looked at one of my older posts where i had downloaded 2005 data and that showed only 1350 approvals.
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