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  #31 (permalink)  
Old 01-09-2008, 11:45 PM
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IMO Us won't fall into a recession.

Reasons:
1. In a recession, no one would know the actual reason for slowdown in spending. The current slowdown is caused primarily by sub-prime mortgage mess up. Since the reason is known, government is in a position to take preventive steps to a certain extend.

2. Recession follows a cycle of around 10 years.
Last recession was in 2000-2001. There won't be another recession before 2010.

3. Real estate cycle is not necessarily tied to recession cycle.
Housing sector was very strong all through the last recession. It remained strong till the recent sub-prime mess.

Rule of thumb: Don't say the "R......" word. Many a time recession is induced by loss of confidence by the utterance of R word than economic reasons. Consumer spending is closely related to consumer confidence.

NB: I am not an economist/finance expert. These are just my observations.
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  #32 (permalink)  
Old 01-09-2008, 11:57 PM
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If the about situations are forecasted then USCIS should decline H1B quota for this year, if not it would be messy and also lots of people trying to switch to EAD aswell.
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  #33 (permalink)  
Old 01-10-2008, 12:42 AM
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Default Consumer spending is tied to consumer confidence

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc28262 View Post
IMO Us won't fall into a recession.

Reasons:
1. In a recession, no one would know the actual reason for slowdown in spending. The current slowdown is caused primarily by sub-prime mortgage mess up. Since the reason is known, government is in a position to take preventive steps to a certain extend.

2. Recession follows a cycle of around 10 years.
Last recession was in 2000-2001. There won't be another recession before 2010.

3. Real estate cycle is not necessarily tied to recession cycle.
Housing sector was very strong all through the last recession. It remained strong till the recent sub-prime mess.

Rule of thumb: Don't say the "R......" word. Many a time recession is induced by loss of confidence by the utterance of R word than economic reasons. Consumer spending is closely related to consumer confidence.

NB: I am not an economist/finance expert. These are just my observations.
which in turn affects the economy.

To save money, you stop subscribing to a newspaper. The company has to cut jobs due to lower subscription. The folks who lost jobs at the news paper company will be affected by foreclosure. The cycle continues.
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  #34 (permalink)  
Old 01-10-2008, 01:04 AM
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Default Right..

I've already postponed new car and big tv purchase. I'm sure there are others who will do the same and collectively consumer spending will go down. I work in Telecom and survived more than 10 rounds of lay-off between 2001-2004. Hope the dark days are not coming back
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  #35 (permalink)  
Old 01-10-2008, 01:32 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by guyfromsg View Post
I've already postponed new car and big tv purchase. I'm sure there are others who will do the same and collectively consumer spending will go down. I work in Telecom and survived more than 10 rounds of lay-off between 2001-2004. Hope the dark days are not coming back
Why did you postpone ? Hearing the "R" word too frequently I guess. That is the power of this negative word. Many of the so called financial analysts don't have much clue about the economics, R cycle or even the stock market. However they keep publishing "Research" about how stock market will bottom out, how US will fall into recession etc. It is a way of keeping the spotlight on them.

Even on this forum, most of the people tend to lean towards the "R" side. This is a self fulfilling prophecy.

After all what is consumer confidence ?
It is the way you and me think about the prospects of economy.

I would recommend reading the book "The power of positive thinking"

http://www.amazon.com/Power-Positive.../dp/0449911470
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  #36 (permalink)  
Old 01-10-2008, 08:43 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by guyfromsg View Post
I've already postponed new car and big tv purchase. I'm sure there are others who will do the same and collectively consumer spending will go down. I work in Telecom and survived more than 10 rounds of lay-off between 2001-2004. Hope the dark days are not coming back
There was an old story I forgot the name and author..

A town will be in economic depression. One guy walks into the local car dealer and orders a very expensive car. The dealer goes to the jeweler and orders a diamond ring or something, the jeweler in turn orders something...it triggers the whole economy and after a week, the car dealer will find out that the guy who ordered the car is a lunatic who escaped from asylum. We are better than lunatics. So, let us order those nice little things that keeps our life enjoyable.

Just go and buy your new car and TV. Enjoy when you can..Buy buy something you can repay...that way we will not contribute to mortgage crisis :-))


(or am I going to be the famous lunatic who is bring out US out or R :-)
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  #37 (permalink)  
Old 01-10-2008, 10:06 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc28262 View Post
IMO Us won't fall into a recession.

Reasons:
1. In a recession, no one would know the actual reason for slowdown in spending. The current slowdown is caused primarily by sub-prime mortgage mess up. Since the reason is known, government is in a position to take preventive steps to a certain extend.

2. Recession follows a cycle of around 10 years.
Last recession was in 2000-2001. There won't be another recession before 2010.

3. Real estate cycle is not necessarily tied to recession cycle.
Housing sector was very strong all through the last recession. It remained strong till the recent sub-prime mess.

Rule of thumb: Don't say the "R......" word. Many a time recession is induced by loss of confidence by the utterance of R word than economic reasons. Consumer spending is closely related to consumer confidence.

NB: I am not an economist/finance expert. These are just my observations.
1. Sub-prime is just one of the reasons for the current slowdown. There might be more. Most of the recessions are caused by panic and consumer sentiments.

2.Not really. There is no such trend.

3.I agree. That was during the last recession. During this one Energy and Infrastructure is going to stay strong.
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  #38 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2008, 02:10 AM
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ingenix will become famous soon enough
Default Recession and working in india

As I understand that we as AOS(485) pending - u can remain in the country and look for job indefinitely on EAD

I would want to know - if i can work in India for lets say 6 months and then come back to the US? How long can i stay out of US and come back to US on AP/EAD.

What the documents that are needed for EAD/AP renewal? This is important to know since EAD renewal will be needed to be done each year.
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  #39 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2008, 03:17 AM
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mojo_jojo is infamous around these parts mojo_jojo is infamous around these parts
Question

if the usa slips into recession,

there will be less people applying for visas etc

hence the visa bulletin will jump faster every month

is this true?
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  #40 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2008, 03:48 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mojo_jojo View Post
if the usa slips into recession,

there will be less people applying for visas etc

hence the visa bulletin will jump faster every month

is this true?
why do you think this? Already 20-50k EAD (dependent spouses) would be ready for new jobs, 65k visas approved in October 2007, will be in a position to take up position at a lower salary. This excludes the L1 visas which are not within the 65k limit and are more. Additionally companies will ship more work outside (even if its same as doing in US, bcos they reduce their FTE - full time employee/equivalents).

I dont know which visa you are refering too? Is that AOS? Well those would had to apply have already done it during the black-hole.
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  #41 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2008, 04:35 AM
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Siddharta will become famous soon enough
Default Recession is here

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc28262 View Post
IMO Us won't fall into a recession.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mojo_jojo View Post
if the usa slips into recession,
We are already in a recession.
Consensus is that the Fed will definitely cut 50bps next meeting. Infact 43.9% of traders are predicting a 75bps rate cut. That is a very BIG rate cut and there is a reason why the fed will do that -- the economy has slowed down drastically in the last 2 months.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the dollar if 75bps rate cut happens.

Fed Futures Data: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research.../11/excel1.xls

Last edited by Siddharta; 01-13-2008 at 04:39 AM.
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  #42 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2008, 06:16 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Siddharta View Post
We are already in a recession.
Consensus is that the Fed will definitely cut 50bps next meeting. Infact 43.9% of traders are predicting a 75bps rate cut. That is a very BIG rate cut and there is a reason why the fed will do that -- the economy has slowed down drastically in the last 2 months.
It will be interesting to see what happens to the dollar if 75bps rate cut happens.

Fed Futures Data: http://www.clevelandfed.org/research.../11/excel1.xls
and also Gold. Here comes $1000/oz.
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  #43 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2008, 09:53 AM
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Norristown is an unknown quantity at this point
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I believe that we are already in recession. Govt will announce only after it is too late.
Very soon politicians will talk about putting limits on outsourcing jobs!
Politicians in US are puppets in lobbyists which is a nice name for corruption.
Even IV has to go through a lobbyist to push our case in legislature.
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  #44 (permalink)  
Old 01-13-2008, 09:03 PM
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mojo_jojo is infamous around these parts mojo_jojo is infamous around these parts
Default

so if the usa were to be hit with a recession,

would the visa bulletin dates

jump faster

or

slow down?

??
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  #45 (permalink)  
Old 01-14-2008, 12:04 AM
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It would be good if outsourcing decreases. It is hurting everyone.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Norristown View Post
I believe that we are already in recession. Govt will announce only after it is too late.
Very soon politicians will talk about putting limits on outsourcing jobs!
Politicians in US are puppets in lobbyists which is a nice name for corruption.
Even IV has to go through a lobbyist to push our case in legislature.
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