Immigration Voice - Forums
Register Get Involved Contact Lawmakers Advocacy Discussion Image Image Image Image

Go Back   Immigration Voice > Immigration Voice Issues and Congressional updates > All other Green Card Issues
Click to log in with Facebook
All other Green Card Issues I-140/I-485, Family Based Green Card

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1501 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 01:18 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Aug-09
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 40
imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Teddy - this is a request from all of us with PD after 07/07. You will soon be green - but your insights have been invaluable here and I hope you will continue to spend some time here at IV and guide people following in your footsteps.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1502 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 01:20 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
N/A
Category
:
N/A
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
N/A
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 141
rodnyb has a reputation beyond repute rodnyb has a reputation beyond repute rodnyb has a reputation beyond repute rodnyb has a reputation beyond repute rodnyb has a reputation beyond repute rodnyb has a reputation beyond repute rodnyb has a reputation beyond repute rodnyb has a reputation beyond repute rodnyb has a reputation beyond repute rodnyb has a reputation beyond repute rodnyb has a reputation beyond repute
Default

New info from June VB
1. Retrogression. Since DOS/CIS both know future demand is high, and want to build buffer for next year (they have to, as there will be 20K spillover. If not, they have to make it C for EB2 later 2012). The only time to do it is either in Aug. or Sept. as they can take in apps without approval (no use of visa number). When that happens, and since demand and supply are about equal now for EB2 I/C, it will almost immediately retrogress in the next month.

Say, DOS do that in Aug. and announcing PD of Dec.07 to Dec.08 (they need one year at least, buffer), CIS could use up all numbers (spillover) and retrogress in Sept.
The issues is DOS has to save some numbers for EB1 in Sept, and shouldn't use up all numbers.

DOS will more likely do it in Sept. when
a. EB1 could still have some numbers to use
b. EB2 IC can use all remaing numbers without wasting
c. New apps won't get approved, but give CIS to process after Sept.
To do this, they have to move PD carefully in July and Aug, to not exhaust all visa numbers for EB2 (as if exhausted, they cannot move PD ahead per law). So move to jan07 in July VB, and March07 in August in probably DOS will do.

The real issue for DOS/CIS and ppl who have PD between March07 to July07 is WHEN Sept comes
1. Who gets the GC? probably spillover is not enough for everyone before July07. I doubt CIS can do FIFO perfectly
2. Can CIS issue RFE for those pre-adjudicated cases and how much to defer some GC issuance to balance visa number?

As those ppl who missed Sept to get GC will probably wait till 07/2012, there will be lots of heated discussion and debate, shouts and cries...




Quote:
Originally Posted by MacX View Post
Teddy,

Do you think they will move 3 months each in Jul and Aug and move big like 6-9 months in Sep. This movement is all for this year from what i understand from the discussion s yesterday. Will they be moving again in Q1 2012 (Oct-Dec) so that they get more cases, in that case how many numbers they usually want to keep and how many months we can expect. You said they might take new applications, what happens Q4 2012 then, is there any chances of retrogress?

I know i have a long way to go :-(

-Mac
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1503 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 01:23 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Aug-09
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 40
imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute
Default Mac - You are close

Mac - you are not too far at all. You will be filing 485 latest by Sept 2012 and perhaps as soon as Oct 2011.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacX View Post

I know i have a long way to go :-(

-Mac
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1504 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 01:29 PM
Donor
Priority Date
:
Oct-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 283
gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
When the big bang will happen is a little bit speculative however the precondition would be atleast 16K worth of movement in the Jul & Aug bulletins, that way the dates will come over till Apr - May 2007. After that it is really their discretion if they want to have it in September or a little later. So lets hope the pre-conditions hold true in the coming 2 months. They may not retrogress however they may not approve the new cases (Just leave the dates at the further point) as well we don’t know what will happen as there is no precedent for that, we may see quarterly spillover also happening nobody knows for sure.
How many visas till now have been consumed by EB-2 category from a possible pool of 30K supply (including spillover?)
If consumption is ~10K they will very certainly move the dates to Mid-2007 by July 2011.
The VO seems to have finally arrived at the same conclusion as the (Senior VB) Analystsp?) with IV that porting demand is likely less than 10K for FY 2011.

The wording in the May 11 VB that "no prediction for July-Aug-Sept 11 VB is possible at this time" was a dead giveaway that USCIS is quickly running out of a predictable visa demand pool and that DOS will have to act to prevent visa numbers wastage.
Another encouraging sign in the previous 2 VBs was a clearcut mention of the "gauging pipeline" terminology. This indicates that IV members and the VO is on the same page. We also know that USCIS will need SOME mechanism to provision the resources to handle the cases in any calendar year.
One way for them to help resources planning is to advance the dates, get new applications, preadjudicate those and retrogress back again. The DOS-USCIS has been doing this effectively with FB immigration and have done in the past with EB tool. (Look for July-Sept 09 VB).
It appears that USCIS will certainly come close to exhausting the preadjudicated pool of EB2 applicants (~35k pre-2007 filers) with this year's supply (~30-40K).
Based on this information it almost looks certain that DOS will have to advance dates well into 2008-2009 to "gauge the pipeline", but not making the EB2 dates current.
Based on the possible EB1 spillover of 20K visas it almost looks like DOS will advance EB2 dates by Dec 2011 VB for sure.
But one surprising aspect is their mention of Eb2 cutoff may "stagnate, or even retrogress due to heavy demand".
What factors could contribute to this warning? Just extreme conservatism?

Last edited by gc_peshwa; 05-13-2011 at 01:37 PM.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1505 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 01:36 PM
Banned
Priority Date
:
Jan-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
04/12/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
N/A
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/02/2011
Compare
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,219
gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_peshwa View Post
How many visas till now have been consumed by EB-2 category from a possible pool of 30K spillover?
If consumption is ~10K they will very certainly move the dates to Mid-2007 by July 2011.
The VO seems to have finally arrived at the same conclusion as the (Senior VB) Analystsp?) with IV that porting demand is likely less than 10K for FY 2011.

The wording in the May 11 VB that "no prediction for July-Aug-Sept 11 VB is possible at this time" was a dead giveaway that USCIS is quickly running out of a predictable visa demand pool and that DOS will have to act to prevent visa numbers wastage.
Another encouraging sign in the previous 2 VBs was a clearcut mention of the "gauging pipeline" terminology. This indicates that IV members and the VO is on the same page. We also know that USCIS will need SOME mechanism to provision the resources to handle the cases in any calendar year.
One way for them to help resources planning is to advance the dates, get new applications, preadjudicate those and retrogress back again. The DOS-USCIS has been doing this effectively with FB immigration and have done in the past with EB tool. (Look for July-Sept 09 VB).
It appears that USCIS will certainly come close to exhausting the preadjudicated pool of EB2 applicants (~35k pre-2007 filers) with this year's supply (~30-40K).
Based on this information it almost looks certain that DOS will have to advance dates well into 2008-2009 to "gauge the pipeline", but not making the EB2 dates current.
Based on the possible EB1 spillover of 20K visas it almost looks like DOS will advance EB2 dates by Dec 2011 VB for sure.
But one surprising aspect is their mention of Eb2 cutoff may "stagnate, or even retrogress due to heavy demand".
What factors could contribute to this warning? Just extreme conservatism?
Two factors

(1) If they advance date to Early - Mid 2008 , date can retrogress in Oct 2011 with supply of 250 visas.


(2) We might have all together 12k visas in spill over. out of which 8k are used before July and only left over is 4k if they move date ahead or even stay at Oct 2006 ,, they may still have fear of Porting or sudden demand increase from Dis office that it will make date stop or retro.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1506 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 01:37 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Sep-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
09/11/2009
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
01/03/2012
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 30
la_2002_ch has a reputation beyond repute la_2002_ch has a reputation beyond repute la_2002_ch has a reputation beyond repute la_2002_ch has a reputation beyond repute la_2002_ch has a reputation beyond repute la_2002_ch has a reputation beyond repute la_2002_ch has a reputation beyond repute la_2002_ch has a reputation beyond repute la_2002_ch has a reputation beyond repute la_2002_ch has a reputation beyond repute la_2002_ch has a reputation beyond repute
Default

With all the Predictions (Estimations) and calculations of all the expert people here, what are the chances (if any), of me filing the 485 in 2012 (with my PD of Late Sep 2008), or will have to wait till 2013?

Last edited by la_2002_ch; 05-13-2011 at 01:42 PM.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


0 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
  #1507 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 01:38 PM
Banned
Priority Date
:
Jan-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
04/12/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
N/A
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/02/2011
Compare
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,219
gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute gc_on_demand has a reputation beyond repute
Default wake up 2010 is gone

Quote:
Originally Posted by la_2002_ch View Post
With all the Predictions (Estimations) and calculations of all the expert people here, what are the chances (if any), of me filing the 485 in 2010 (with my PD of Late Sep 2008), or will have to wait till 2013?
its 2011 gc wait is so long people don't realize even year or two is huge time..
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1508 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 01:43 PM
Donor
Priority Date
:
Oct-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Jun 2009
Posts: 283
gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute gc_peshwa has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_on_demand View Post
Two factors

(1) If they advance date to Early - Mid 2008 , date can retrogress in Oct 2011 with supply of 250 visas.


(2) We might have all together 12k visas in spill over. out of which 8k are used before July and only left over is 4k if they move date ahead or even stay at Oct 2006 ,, they may still have fear of Porting or sudden demand increase from Dis office that it will make date stop or retro.
Well thats why I asked can we estimate the visa numbers consumption till end of June 2011. If the USCIS has used 12K visas till June 2011, with an estimated 20K supply still intact, why would DOS worry about "unexpected" demand?
DOS needs to worry only if district demand will exceed 10K or so. Thats a possibility but hasnt happened before.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1509 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 02:06 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Aug-09
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 40
imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute
Default

In my opinion you will be able to file 485 in late summer 2012. You might not get a GC until 2013 but you will be part of the build-a-pipeline-for-next-year effort at the end of summer 2012.

Quote:
Originally Posted by la_2002_ch View Post
With all the Predictions (Estimations) and calculations of all the expert people here, what are the chances (if any), of me filing the 485 in 2012 (with my PD of Late Sep 2008), or will have to wait till 2013?
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1510 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 02:08 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Aug-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
02/01/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 79
eyeswe has a reputation beyond repute eyeswe has a reputation beyond repute eyeswe has a reputation beyond repute eyeswe has a reputation beyond repute eyeswe has a reputation beyond repute eyeswe has a reputation beyond repute eyeswe has a reputation beyond repute eyeswe has a reputation beyond repute eyeswe has a reputation beyond repute eyeswe has a reputation beyond repute eyeswe has a reputation beyond repute
Default Notes in VB

"At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011"

Let us not get all excitied and perked up with this unexpected movement in June VB. The statement above tells me there is some fishing expedition going on. I am not ready to believe that there will be so few upgrdaes with the window opening to Oct 2006. My guess is at max the Sep VB will take India to Jan 2007. Dont also forget China. Upgrade is not done by India alone; China is also part of this equation. They have now brought both the countries on parity and so going forward in the spill quarter they have to make sure both countries maintain the Priority dates. So if India can go to Aug 2007 etc as some of you are speculating China also has to reach there and I am not sure there will be so many visas to spillover in the last quarter.. Just my thought w/o putting fingers to the calculator
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1511 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 02:14 PM
Banned
Priority Date
:
Category
:
N/A
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
Processing Stage
:
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 41
EB-VoiceImmigration is infamous around these parts EB-VoiceImmigration is infamous around these parts EB-VoiceImmigration is infamous around these parts EB-VoiceImmigration is infamous around these parts EB-VoiceImmigration is infamous around these parts EB-VoiceImmigration is infamous around these parts EB-VoiceImmigration is infamous around these parts EB-VoiceImmigration is infamous around these parts EB-VoiceImmigration is infamous around these parts EB-VoiceImmigration is infamous around these parts
Default In my opinion

Quote:
Originally Posted by rag1232 View Post
Thank you Teddy. My PD is January 2007 and we booked tickets to India on June 8 and returning on July 15. We will postpone our tickets until we see July VB. If my date is not current then we will go with our plans else we will cancel the India trip.

Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.

I suggest dont disappoint your parents, relatives by delaying. Even if you are current in July bltn, it wont be effective until July 1st. Anyway you are coming back on 15th. Since your I 485 is already filed, you have nothing to do I guess.

Also please take attorney suggestion
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


0 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
  #1512 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 02:16 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Aug-09
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 40
imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute imdeng has a reputation beyond repute
Default

I think its just legalese to cover any unexpected scenario. We know the demand till 07/07, we also know based on PERM data that potential demand after 07/07 is weaker, and now we know that porting is well within the projected range - so there really are no source of unexpected demand at this point.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_peshwa View Post
But one surprising aspect is their mention of Eb2 cutoff may "stagnate, or even retrogress due to heavy demand".
What factors could contribute to this warning? Just extreme conservatism?
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1513 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 02:25 PM
Junior Member
Priority Date
:
Jan-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
03/16/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
06/30/2007
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 13
rag1232 is infamous around these parts rag1232 is infamous around these parts rag1232 is infamous around these parts rag1232 is infamous around these parts rag1232 is infamous around these parts rag1232 is infamous around these parts rag1232 is infamous around these parts
Default

I agree with you eyeswe.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1514 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 02:37 PM
Junior Member
Priority Date
:
Feb-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
05/25/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 22
bratramm has a brilliant future bratramm has a brilliant future bratramm has a brilliant future bratramm has a brilliant future bratramm has a brilliant future bratramm has a brilliant future bratramm has a brilliant future bratramm has a brilliant future bratramm has a brilliant future bratramm has a brilliant future bratramm has a brilliant future
Default maybe they know exactly how many visas they have now....

....and they know the deamnd till june 2007. Maybe they have more visas than demand exists, and are concerned about having to repeat july 2007 scenario. To avoid that they have to open the gates (very very very slowly) to about a week beyond june/july 2007 in july 2011 and see the demand in aug and adjust for september-which means they would either have to stop movement or even pull back a bit). The visas should keep the officers working for the rest of the year-and in case the demand does dry up, they can always open the tap by a couple of weeks-not a year as some have suggested. they already know on an average they get about 1500 visas from india EB2 a month-so a weeks movement will give them enough cases for a quarter at least.

But I agree-we should not get too excited-I beleive we will see a lot of movement in July, and little or none in Aug/Sep 2011.

Quote:
Originally Posted by eyeswe View Post
"At this time the amount of new "upgrade" demand has been minimal; this has allowed the Employment Second preference cut-off date governing the use of the Section 202(a)(5) numbers to advance significantly for June. Cut-off date movement for upcoming months cannot be guaranteed, and because of the variables involved, no assumptions should be made until the dates are formally announced. Should there be a sudden or significant increase in India and China Employment Second preference demand it may be necessary to slow, stop, or retrogress that cut-off date as we approach the end of fiscal year 2011"

Let us not get all excitied and perked up with this unexpected movement in June VB. The statement above tells me there is some fishing expedition going on. I am not ready to believe that there will be so few upgrdaes with the window opening to Oct 2006. My guess is at max the Sep VB will take India to Jan 2007. Dont also forget China. Upgrade is not done by India alone; China is also part of this equation. They have now brought both the countries on parity and so going forward in the spill quarter they have to make sure both countries maintain the Priority dates. So if India can go to Aug 2007 etc as some of you are speculating China also has to reach there and I am not sure there will be so many visas to spillover in the last quarter.. Just my thought w/o putting fingers to the calculator
__________________
"The one eyed man is king in a blind village"
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #1515 (permalink)  
Old 05-13-2011, 02:54 PM
Senior Member/Moderator
Priority Date
:
Jul-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
10/15/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
11/01/2011
Compare
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 1,512
TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by MacX View Post
Teddy,

Do you think they will move 3 months each in Jul and Aug and move big like 6-9 months in Sep. This movement is all for this year from what i understand from the discussion s yesterday. Will they be moving again in Q1 2012 (Oct-Dec) so that they get more cases, in that case how many numbers they usually want to keep and how many months we can expect. You said they might take new applications, what happens Q4 2012 then, is there any chances of retrogress?

I know i have a long way to go :-(

-Mac
What I believe is that 3 months plus movement in Jul and Aug is required to have big movement in September something like intake of new numbers. However if Jul and Aug movement is less then there is no risk of the preadjudicated numbers being exhausted and September will also be conservative. So Jul & Aug are really key and critical.


Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
Teddy - this is a request from all of us with PD after 07/07. You will soon be green - but your insights have been invaluable here and I hope you will continue to spend some time here at IV and guide people following in your footsteps.
I will be here my friend, you are my drivers, thanks for your appreciation. For me it’s a still a long road ahead the first milestone really is being able to file for 485.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rodnyb View Post
New info from June VB
1. Retrogression. Since DOS/CIS both know future demand is high, and want to build buffer for next year (they have to, as there will be 20K spillover. If not, they have to make it C for EB2 later 2012). The only time to do it is either in Aug. or Sept. as they can take in apps without approval (no use of visa number). When that happens, and since demand and supply are about equal now for EB2 I/C, it will almost immediately retrogress in the next month.

Say, DOS do that in Aug. and announcing PD of Dec.07 to Dec.08 (they need one year at least, buffer), CIS could use up all numbers (spillover) and retrogress in Sept.
The issues is DOS has to save some numbers for EB1 in Sept, and shouldn't use up all numbers.

DOS will more likely do it in Sept. when
a. EB1 could still have some numbers to use
b. EB2 IC can use all remaing numbers without wasting
c. New apps won't get approved, but give CIS to process after Sept.
To do this, they have to move PD carefully in July and Aug, to not exhaust all visa numbers for EB2 (as if exhausted, they cannot move PD ahead per law). So move to jan07 in July VB, and March07 in August in probably DOS will do.

The real issue for DOS/CIS and ppl who have PD between March07 to July07 is WHEN Sept comes
1. Who gets the GC? probably spillover is not enough for everyone before July07. I doubt CIS can do FIFO perfectly
2. Can CIS issue RFE for those pre-adjudicated cases and how much to defer some GC issuance to balance visa number?

As those ppl who missed Sept to get GC will probably wait till 07/2012, there will be lots of heated discussion and debate, shouts and cries...
I think your points are very valid even I have been trying to say the same thing we do not have sufficient numbers in terms of spillover to green everybody till 01-Aug-2007 even if we exclude PWMB, there is still a large ground to cover. The key here is how much more will EB1 provide.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_peshwa View Post
How many visas till now have been consumed by EB-2 category from a possible pool of 30K supply (including spillover?)
If consumption is ~10K they will very certainly move the dates to Mid-2007 by July 2011.
The VO seems to have finally arrived at the same conclusion as the (Senior VB) Analystsp?) with IV that porting demand is likely less than 10K for FY 2011.

The wording in the May 11 VB that "no prediction for July-Aug-Sept 11 VB is possible at this time" was a dead giveaway that USCIS is quickly running out of a predictable visa demand pool and that DOS will have to act to prevent visa numbers wastage.
Another encouraging sign in the previous 2 VBs was a clearcut mention of the "gauging pipeline" terminology. This indicates that IV members and the VO is on the same page. We also know that USCIS will need SOME mechanism to provision the resources to handle the cases in any calendar year.
One way for them to help resources planning is to advance the dates, get new applications, preadjudicate those and retrogress back again. The DOS-USCIS has been doing this effectively with FB immigration and have done in the past with EB tool. (Look for July-Sept 09 VB).
It appears that USCIS will certainly come close to exhausting the preadjudicated pool of EB2 applicants (~35k pre-2007 filers) with this year's supply (~30-40K).
Based on this information it almost looks certain that DOS will have to advance dates well into 2008-2009 to "gauge the pipeline", but not making the EB2 dates current.
Based on the possible EB1 spillover of 20K visas it almost looks like DOS will advance EB2 dates by Dec 2011 VB for sure.
But one surprising aspect is their mention of Eb2 cutoff may "stagnate, or even retrogress due to heavy demand".
What factors could contribute to this warning? Just extreme conservatism?
I believe that ~ 24K demand remains till 2007 this excludes PWMB and similar amount of spillover remains 8K from EB2 ROW and EB5 seems to be sure we have to have another 8K from EB1 out of which 5K has to be additional and we still have 3K remaining from the 12K from May. So if we see good movement say 3-4 months in Jul and Aug VB's then it will setup a very interesting stage for Sep. In September we should come fairly close to the 01-Aug-2007 mark then its really discretion and speculative when the gate opens for the next batch.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
Reply

Bookmarks


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 2 (0 members and 2 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:58 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
(c)ImmigrationVoice.org