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  #1636 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by MacX View Post
@voicerj:
I am not sure on what basis you are able to tell there is 70% chance that EB2 Oct 08 is going to be current in 2012. I think there is 20-30% chance.

ramasubbareddy- not to discourage you. Even mine is Oct 2008 EB2 but i think its better not to be too optimistic sometimes.

-Mac
Sorry but the way things are going you are wrong, 70% chance you will get EAD, Not so sure about the GC, may be after a year you get EAD
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  #1637 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted by frustratingGC View Post
What is the chance on PD (Jul 2008) current in 2013?
I'm thinking of switching to full time, is it really worth to do now?
your response is highly appreciated.
Wait till Sep Bulleting and then go for the switch.
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  #1638 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 03:36 PM
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Default EB2 India Predictions for Q4 2011 and 2012

Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on the other site, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September.
c) EB1 I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VBs must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmbs will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.
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  #1639 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 03:47 PM
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Default EB3 India Spillover Question

Friends I believe that the answer to who gets the spillover in case there is spillover from EB2 to EB3 is very important for all. This has been really disputed however most people believe that it will be EB3 ROW because they have not reached 7%. I think if this is clarified by some competent attorney or Pappu if you can clarify for the benefit of everybody it will be a great help. The answer to this question once and for all can help to clear a lot of misgivings.

On another note both EB3 ROW and EB2 India will not become current anytime soon so the best bet is PD porting absolutely for anyone whose PD is beyond 2002. This year EB3-I will reach 15th May 2002 however it will take another 1.5 - 2 years for it to cross into 2003.
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  #1640 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 04:07 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on the other site, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September.
c) EB1 I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VBs must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmbs will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.
Thanks for Very Good Analysis. Just wondering if there will be any spillover from eb4 also. From the uscis inventory data from Jan average eb4 usuage is 300 to 400 per month.
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  #1641 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 04:09 PM
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Default

Thanks for your analysis Teddy.
So say we get enough SOFAD for the year to assign visa numbers to folks until May 2007 PD. If this happens do you not think that DOS will still need to move the dates to may be late 2007 to have a buffer? I was of the impression that they can move the dates only in the last quarter so I think they will have to move the dates in September to potentially avoid making dates current during fiscal 2012 and causing a July 2007 type scenario
Any thoughts?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Friends many of you have asked on when your specific dates will be current. For now on the strength of numbers following is the current situation.
- The current cap consumed is 6K of regular I/C cap and around 9K of the 12K visas that came up at the time of the May bulletin this would make it ~ 15K consumption. We should be cognizant to the fact that last year SOFAD which includes I/C regular cap was 26K and this year the cap itself is les due to lack of family spillover by 10K.
- Now the next critical fact is how of much of SOFAD is left and how much is required to effectively cross the 01-Aug-2007 line, something like having the next batch of intake can only happen if there is a chance of coming really close to this point. For this calculation we should exclude the PWMB's for now, I believe last VB saw an additional 6.5 cases being current so the revised demand data should show ~ 24K. Following is what we can expect.
a) 8K from EB5 appears to be almost certain.
b) 7-8K from EB2 ROW appears to be quite likely this is based on the rate of approvals on the other site, however a note of caution that the USCIS dashboard was recently updated an it shows a surge of applications in March it was a similar trend last year but it does not augur well because it could mean that there will be more EB2 ROW applications and even if they file in regular processing they have a decent chance of approval in September.
c) EB1 I believe that we did not receive 3K out of the 12K figure from May and we can possibly get another 5K.
All in all if all of a), b) & c) add up then totaling upto 24K is possible and we may come very close to the 01-Aug-2007 line. But realistically we will likely end up 5-6K short of this mark and the dates might be somewhere between late April and early May lets put it as 01-May-2011.
If the 01-Aug 2007 mark has to be reached he is how he VBs must progress we should see ~ 8K movement every time if any of the bulletins does not show sufficient progress we will miss the mark
Jul - 15th Jan 2007
Aug - 15th Apr 2007
Sep - 1st Aug 2007
Now coming to next year. I think a very important thing will be how much SOFAD happens this year. In the most optimistic case it will be 40K. So the next intake should be able to safely cover 40K. However we should consider the fact if we reach say 01-May 2007 then ~10K of preadjudicated cases + pwmbs will be left and we can expect another 6K of porting. So what is left really is an intake of 24K. This is I believe will be very easily satisfied by moving the dates barely into 2008, the chances for anyone in Q2 2008 for next year are a little optimistic as of now it might take Sep 2012 to clear ot the heavy demand from year 2007. I would say that the fresh intake would peg the date somewhere between 01-Jan-2008 to 28th Feb 2008 as all they need is a maximum of 24K cases beyond 01-Aug-2007 to cover a contingency of 40K. However if there is a grand gate opening that is completely hypothetical and their discretion it could be a great news to everyone waiting.
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  #1642 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 04:19 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by vijay226 View Post
Thanks for Very Good Analysis. Just wondering if there will be any spillover from eb4 also. From the uscis inventory data from Jan average eb4 usuage is 300 to 400 per month.
That is an interesting piece of information, however historically EB4 has not given any SOFAD. Can you provide a link where you saw the trend about the EB4 usage?
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_vbin View Post
Thanks for your analysis Teddy.
So say we get enough SOFAD for the year to assign visa numbers to folks until May 2007 PD. If this happens do you not think that DOS will still need to move the dates to may be late 2007 to have a buffer? I was of the impression that they can move the dates only in the last quarter so I think they will have to move the dates in September to potentially avoid making dates current during fiscal 2012 and causing a July 2007 type scenario
Any thoughts?
This year looks like they will be able to safely manage within the pre-adjudicated cases. Iam not sure about the rule but if such a rule is there it will really be terrible for those who miss to file 485 this year as potentially they will be able to file 485 next year and then wait for GC for another year. I feel if this year was a precedent they should really evaluate the demand by say May 2012 bulletin latest and open the gate ideally much earlier. This is why it is definitely important to for everyone to know who gets the spillover by default for now the likely answer is EB3 ROW.
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  #1643 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 04:37 PM
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If they don't do the intake before Oct1 this year, per law, they cannot move PD beyond Aug.1st 2007 (as the demand is greater than supplier) in 2012 until Aug2012 when it is too late for CIS to even process those apps. The real tricky part is the PD in Sept 2011, are they going to set pass Aug1.2007? I am certain, demand before Aug.1st, 2007 is greater than the supply. If that is the case, and , who gets GC as CIS has not strictly follow FIFO. It could be another fiasco as everyone wants in, and call congressman/woman, etc.

CIS could cooperate by pausing processing new EB1/EB2ROW/OWMB in July-Sept by soley processing EB2I/C pre-adjudicated.. trying to use up all visa numbers.. that could save some visas and could possibly let everyone pre-adjudicated get GC. The chance is 50% as my calculation points to an even scenario for EB2I/C based on demand and supply


Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_vbin View Post
Thanks for your analysis Teddy.
So say we get enough SOFAD for the year to assign visa numbers to folks until May 2007 PD. If this happens do you not think that DOS will still need to move the dates to may be late 2007 to have a buffer? I was of the impression that they can move the dates only in the last quarter so I think they will have to move the dates in September to potentially avoid making dates current during fiscal 2012 and causing a July 2007 type scenario
Any thoughts?
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  #1644 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 04:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
That is an interesting piece of information, however historically EB4 has not given any SOFAD. Can you provide a link where you saw the trend about the EB4 usage?

This year looks like they will be able to safely manage within the pre-adjudicated cases. Iam not sure about the rule but if such a rule is there it will really be terrible for those who miss to file 485 this year as potentially they will be able to file 485 next year and then wait for GC for another year. I feel if this year was a precedent they should really evaluate the demand by say May 2012 bulletin latest and open the gate ideally much earlier. This is why it is definitely important to for everyone to know who gets the spillover by default for now the likely answer is EB3 ROW.
most of the people say the making cuurent during 2007 was a mistake by USCIS and they will not do it again. Byt. I really wish they make the dates current for just one month. So that most of us atleast file I485. Now all we can do it wait for next bulletin.

@Teddy - Your analysis always good. I was wondering where do you get all the data to analyze? Anyways, thanks for all the effort.
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  #1645 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 04:50 PM
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Default So what is the answer ?

If EB2 is current spillover will go to EB3 ROW or EB3 India ?
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  #1646 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 04:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MacX View Post
most of the people say the making cuurent during 2007 was a mistake by USCIS and they will not do it again. Byt. I really wish they make the dates current for just one month. So that most of us atleast file I485. Now all we can do it wait for next bulletin.

@Teddy - Your analysis always good. I was wondering where do you get all the data to analyze? Anyways, thanks for all the effort.
USCIS does not publish the dates- DOS does. The reason DOS did that was because of immense wastage of visa's by USCIS and incompetence on their part in providing the correct data.

Case be told when they made the dates "C" CIS went crazy as they knew they were no where near capable of handling the case load hence they forced DOS to retract the dates. But due to the legal ramifications they held the VB as it was published.
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  #1647 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 04:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EBX-Man View Post
If EB2 is current spillover will go to EB3 ROW or EB3 India ?
Will go to EB3- India. Since the most retrogressed state is automatically given the extra visa's!
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  #1648 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 05:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
That is an interesting piece of information, however historically EB4 has not given any SOFAD. Can you provide a link where you saw the trend about the EB4 usage?

This year looks like they will be able to safely manage within the pre-adjudicated cases. Iam not sure about the rule but if such a rule is there it will really be terrible for those who miss to file 485 this year as potentially they will be able to file 485 next year and then wait for GC for another year. I feel if this year was a precedent they should really evaluate the demand by say May 2012 bulletin latest and open the gate ideally much earlier. This is why it is definitely important to for everyone to know who gets the spillover by default for now the likely answer is EB3 ROW.
Here is the monthly inventory from uscis. The data is from Jan 5 2011:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistic...05,%202011.pdf

If we take the max value for eb4 which is between 300 to 400, lets assume 400 * 12 = 4800
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  #1649 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 05:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vijay226 View Post
Here is the monthly inventory from uscis. The data is from Jan 5 2011:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistic...05,%202011.pdf

If we take the max value for eb4 which is between 300 to 400, lets assume 400 * 12 = 4800
For categories that are current the inventory does not give the true picture of the demand for them most of the cases may get approved even before being inventoried so we just get to see part demand only.
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  #1650 (permalink)  
Old 05-19-2011, 05:18 PM
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snathan has a reputation beyond repute snathan has a reputation beyond repute snathan has a reputation beyond repute snathan has a reputation beyond repute snathan has a reputation beyond repute snathan has a reputation beyond repute snathan has a reputation beyond repute snathan has a reputation beyond repute snathan has a reputation beyond repute snathan has a reputation beyond repute snathan has a reputation beyond repute
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Originally Posted by vijay226 View Post
Here is the monthly inventory from uscis. The data is from Jan 5 2011:

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistic...05,%202011.pdf

If we take the max value for eb4 which is between 300 to 400, lets assume 400 * 12 = 4800
Means we are going to get around another 24K spill over from EB4 ?
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