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  #1666 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2011, 12:04 AM
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How will it be bonus for EB3?
If they move the EB2 dates to Mid 2008 say in a controlled manner, and they do not get enough applications, then they will have to move EB2 dates further untill they make it current before thinking about EB3 for spillover.

For any SOFAD to drill down to EB3 EB2 across the board has to be current. Otherwise they risk las suits from people like you and me who are waiting.

Good Luck!
S

Quote:
Originally Posted by immigrant0809 View Post
rodnyb,

TBH any view expressed might happen, because it is entirely uncharted territory!

I think that DOS will advance the dates to about mid 2008 not later than the May 2010 VB, although they might not do it all at once.

If they don't, then not enough applicants cases will be ready for approval during July - September 2012.

It's an equal chance whether they begin that process in September 2011.

Although it is possible, the one thing I don't think they will do is make it EB2 Current. That invites too many applications and DOS have not done that previously when they wanted more FB cases, so I think it will be push it forward in a controlled manner followed by retrogressing it back.

If they happen to get less numbers than they expect, it will be a bonus for EB3. I don't see DOS getting it that wrong.

But, my guess is only as good as anybody else's!
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  #1667 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2011, 03:16 AM
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Default Disconnect?

Hi Greenisgood,

But Teddy and others say for 2010 - SOFAD is ~20k and ~6K is EB2 (I + C) quota = 26k
As per your calculation, SOFAD is ~ 26k and ~6K is EB2 (I + C) quota = 32k

I think there is some kind of disconnect here!



Quote:
Originally Posted by greenisgood View Post
Break down of 26K is as below...
10K - FB-Spillover
8K - EB5
6K - EB2-ROW
2K - EB1

As per Teddy.. this year may get ~34K

0 - FB-Spillover
20K - EB1
8K - EB5
6K - EB2-ROW
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  #1668 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2011, 07:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
How will it be bonus for EB3?
If they move the EB2 dates to Mid 2008 say in a controlled manner, and they do not get enough applications, then they will have to move EB2 dates further untill they make it current before thinking about EB3 for spillover.

For any SOFAD to drill down to EB3 EB2 across the board has to be current. Otherwise they risk las suits from people like you and me who are waiting.

Good Luck!
S
In my personal opiniion moving EB2 beyond 2007 for EB2- India is not going to help EB2-I use those numbers except that some of my friends will be able to apply for 485s and EADs.
FOr POst July 2007 cases (new 485 filers, USCIS will have to process 485 applications in record time of 3 months, especially when all the ifnormation will be new). There are chances if spillover is more than 40000, it will go to EB3 this year.
BTW does anyone have numbers of EB2s and EB3s used for this year so far (not just india but worldwide).
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  #1669 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2011, 07:45 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
I have updated the header of the thread with these acronyms these were all devised in the last thread.

Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).
Thanks Pal...more than that I hope all your efforts (and the ones who have been consistently doing analysis are rewarded soon with GCs ).....

Last edited by immigrant2007; 05-20-2011 at 11:24 AM.
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  #1670 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2011, 09:08 AM
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Default maybe all there is from 'EB1` is 12K

I would think that EB1 was going to give only 12K for the entire year. 28K EB1 seems a decent number of EB1 filers for the FY. Just my gut feeling......
The reason why they started the quaterly spillover earlier was probably based on last year's circumstance where they waited till the last quarter to do SOFAD-the result of which they had a lot of backlog to deal with in terms of processing....so this year, instead of doing just one quarter spillover, they are doing the spillover in two quarters.....

we all complained about the DOS/CIS not doing quarterly spillover-maybe they heard and they are slowly moving to quarterly spillover instead of waiting till the last quarter....


Has anyone done an analysis of the dates if this were true, ie only 12K from EB1....?

Quote:
Originally Posted by nishant2200 View Post
......I also have a gut feeling that the reason for doing the EB-1 12k earlier, was that they do think, this is in addition to usual spillover they get from EB1.

As I said, it's my gut feeling, not because I will benefit from this, but just an instinct. Even earlier, when the 12k EB1, they only moved by 2 months earlier, I knew they would move till october in next month ( I had seen the demand data pdf, and it indicated they should have gone till october to consume 12k), since they had two months before Q4, they would want to move cautiously and not just release all in one month.
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  #1671 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2011, 11:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenisgood View Post
Break down of 26K is as below...
10K - FB-Spillover
8K - EB5
6K - EB2-ROW
2K - EB1

As per Teddy.. this year may get ~34K

0 - FB-Spillover
20K - EB1
8K - EB5
6K - EB2-ROW
Hi

Where can we check the number of GCs already issued this year for all categories irrespective of countries
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  #1672 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2011, 12:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by immigrant2007 View Post
Hi

Where can we check the number of GCs already issued this year for all categories irrespective of countries
I don't think you can. This information is released by USCIS yearly only after the year is over.
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  #1673 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2011, 01:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by immigrant2007 View Post
Hi

Where can we check the number of GCs already issued this year for all categories irrespective of countries
No where. If we know that it would have been very easy to make predictions. In my opinion, DOS should also release this data (consumption data for current FY) with the demand data.
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  #1674 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2011, 01:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
How will it be bonus for EB3?
If they move the EB2 dates to Mid 2008 say in a controlled manner, and they do not get enough applications, then they will have to move EB2 dates further untill they make it current before thinking about EB3 for spillover.

For any SOFAD to drill down to EB3 EB2 across the board has to be current. Otherwise they risk las suits from people like you and me who are waiting.

Good Luck!
S
They could give the visa to EB3 and not tell anyone. How can we sue CIS when we don't know what they have done?
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  #1675 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2011, 01:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by meraNumberKabAayega View Post
No where. If we know that it would have been very easy to make predictions. In my opinion, DOS should also release this data (consumption data for current FY) with the demand data.
Adding more features will increase the fees we pay for applications. Fees already increased after we asked for more data and information. USCIS runs on application fees and so if we ask for more , they have to get funds from somewhere
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  #1676 (permalink)  
Old 05-20-2011, 05:38 PM
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talking about fees - since new 485 filing don't need to have AP/EAD paid for renewal, CIS is losing big. For current pre-adjudicated cases, they get constant 2 year EAD/AP renewal fees. I am sure they haven't calculated those effects yet once all pre 07/2007 PD GC are approved.

DOS has to follow INA which is very rigid. Precedence has shown that they are very liberal in interpreting those. So all our guess could be all wrong.

Adding to the mess, CIS is not doing FIFO and has a big black box in processing/approving.

I can only say for Sept2011 Eb2I PD
Feb 2007 is certainty
March-October 2007 all possible
and Nov2007-June2008 is low probability

How they move July August PD is interesting as well.





Quote:
Originally Posted by waitingnwaiting View Post
Adding more features will increase the fees we pay for applications. Fees already increased after we asked for more data and information. USCIS runs on application fees and so if we ask for more , they have to get funds from somewhere
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  #1677 (permalink)  
Old 05-21-2011, 12:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fall1998 View Post
I don't think you can. This information is released by USCIS yearly only after the year is over.
Cant we keep on filing FOIA for the same?
Where can I get information on the demand data from Oct-2010 onwards?
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  #1678 (permalink)  
Old 05-21-2011, 11:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by immigrant2007 View Post
Cant we keep on filing FOIA for the same?
Where can I get information on the demand data from Oct-2010 onwards?
EB2-I USCIS Data - Immigration Wiki
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  #1679 (permalink)  
Old 05-21-2011, 09:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
WASHINTON: An American employee of Infosys has filed a case against the company accusing it of visa and tax fraud.


Court case against Infosys accuses it of visa and tax fraud - The Economic Times

Infosys booked for visa and tax fraud - Bangalore - DNA


Theres no guarentee that these companies don't do fraud in GC process. Especially filing more than 1000 GC applications(Labour filings) in EB2 and EB3 (Don't know homany filed in EB1) by Cognizant in 2010 itself, even when the US economy didn't recover completely?

Top 100 Green Card(PERM) Sponsors -2011 Employment Based Green Card Report | MyVisaJobs.com

.
Almost everyone working in cognizant are eligible for EB3 and many are eligible for EB2, No complaints when applied in EB2/EB3.

Only concern is EB1, we don't know how many applied in EB1.
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  #1680 (permalink)  
Old 05-22-2011, 12:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by immigrant2007 View Post
Cant we keep on filing FOIA for the same?
Where can I get information on the demand data from Oct-2010 onwards?
Well, FOIA may not help, since USCIS does release visa usage data yearly (FOIA helps when information is not made available). Every year, once the financial year for USCIS ends, they do release this data.
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