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  #2341 (permalink)  
Old 06-10-2011, 11:09 PM
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Talking You gotta be a donor for that. ;)

Quote:
Originally Posted by mechanical13 View Post
There seems be an issue with this thread -- I can't seem to go past page 157.

Are others experiencing the same problem ? Has this thread grown too long?
You have to be donour to see those top secret pages where there is a date when you get current and GC, and also a tip on how to get it sooner. (Just trying to pour some more money into IV )

IV, Please consider this as my indirect contribution apart from those 200$ from me.

Just kidding, Please refresh it.

Hope we all reach there sooner. It ijs frustating, nail biting (No more nails now to bite even) but hang in there, we will get there.
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  #2342 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2011, 02:30 AM
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Smile Question for Teddy

Hello Teddy,

I just filed my I-485 application yesterday.Do you think I could get greened by October 2011? My PD is Sept 06 but did not file I-485 in the July chaos since I was not married then.
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  #2343 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2011, 09:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_peshwa View Post
TK
Did you mean 2007 above?? The more I think about gc_on_demand's analysis about NVC driving the future I485 pipeline, the more convincing it sounds....
August 2011 VB should move the dates to 08 Aug 2007 for EB2IC.(~35% possibility per your estimation)
In any case we need to push USCIS for advancing the dates. Just like there is no law mandating a building of a pipeline there is no law preventing USCIS from advancing the dates and accepting pending I485 demand.
Genuinely interested volunteers may wish to inquire with IV admins on this efforts.
Yes sorry that was a typo I meant 2007 here is the revised table and post.


Let me list down the probability for all dates by Sep 2011. The gate opening or new intake is purely hypothetical this is just based on the numbers.

01-JUN-2007 - 100%
15-JUN-2007 - 90%
01-JUL-2007 - 80%
15-JUL-2007 - 65%
01-AUG-2007 - 50%
15-AUG-2007 - 35%
01-SEP-2007 - 20%
15-SEP-2007 - 10%
01-OCT-2007 - 0%

The chart above is purely out of my gut feeling. They may push the dates to 15th Aug to get each and every preadjudicated case. To push till 15th Sep by the Sep bulletin is hard / less likely but not impossible. Have your hopes high what has happened till now also was considered impossible but happened.

Quote:
Originally Posted by maverick2010 View Post
Hello Teddy,

I just filed my I-485 application yesterday.Do you think I could get greened by October 2011? My PD is Sept 06 but did not file I-485 in the July chaos since I was not married then.
I think you should be able to get you GC by Sep 2011 or if they can fully adjudicate your cass by September so that its eligible for a cap number latest could be October when all the formalities are completed. This is based on few examples from last year.
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  #2344 (permalink)  
Old 06-11-2011, 11:44 AM
SVS SVS is offline
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Default

Teddy,

I first want to thank you for the great work and for the time you've put in. In light of the effort by you and others, I thought I'd help and look at some demand numbers based on PERM filings for the year 2007. However, I'm stuck at these items:

1. I can't seem to find a received date. There's only a decision date.
2. Does the PERM data not show which category the filing is for EB1/2/3?

I got the data from flcdatacenter.com

Thanks,
SVS
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  #2345 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2011, 01:40 AM
hbk hbk is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Let me list down the probability for all dates by Sep 2011. The gate opening or new intake is purely hypothetical this is just based on the numbers.

01-JUN-2007 - 100%
15-JUN-2007 - 90%
01-JUL-2007 - 80%
15-JUL-2007 - 65%
01-AUG-2007 - 50%
15-AUG-2007 - 35%
01-SEP-2007 - 20%
15-SEP-2007 - 10%
01-OCT-2007 - 0%

The chart above is purely out of my gut feeling. They may push the dates to 15th Aug to get each and every preadjudicated case. To push till 15th Sep by the Sep bulletin is hard / less likely but not impossible. Have your hopes high what has happened till now also was considered impossible but happened.
Thanks a lot Teddy.

Is there any chance in next year or so by Sep-2012 that date will cross 15-Sep-2007 for EB2-India ? If Yes then during which timeframe this may happen ?

Thanks.
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  #2346 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2011, 01:53 AM
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Default Thanks to Teddy

Many many thanks to Teddy for his great analysis work and giving us such a great insight.

Also not to forget VDLRao who has also given very valuable info from time to time.

This thread is truly amazing and will always stay in my memory.

Once again great work guys and thank to all. I pray to the Almighty that let everybody get their green cards soon.

IV is amazing!!!!!!
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  #2347 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2011, 01:59 AM
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Is this the latest I-485 Inventory or is the old one. USCIS website says its the inventory of Greencards as of June 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

Does this give any insight into some future numbers
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  #2348 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2011, 02:02 AM
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Default can you update the 1st page of this thread with this data

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Yes sorry that was a typo I meant 2007 here is the revised table and post.


Let me list down the probability for all dates by Sep 2011. The gate opening or new intake is purely hypothetical this is just based on the numbers.

01-JUN-2007 - 100%
15-JUN-2007 - 90%
01-JUL-2007 - 80%
15-JUL-2007 - 65%
01-AUG-2007 - 50%
15-AUG-2007 - 35%
01-SEP-2007 - 20%
15-SEP-2007 - 10%
01-OCT-2007 - 0%

The chart above is purely out of my gut feeling. They may push the dates to 15th Aug to get each and every preadjudicated case. To push till 15th Sep by the Sep bulletin is hard / less likely but not impossible. Have your hopes high what has happened till now also was considered impossible but happened.



I think you should be able to get you GC by Sep 2011 or if they can fully adjudicate your cass by September so that its eligible for a cap number latest could be October when all the formalities are completed. This is based on few examples from last year.

Hello Teddy,

Can you please update the 1st page/1st post of this thread with this new data as you always do :-)

Thanks
-M
__________________
contributed $100 so far more to come

I WAS THERE IN DC, WERE YOU?
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  #2349 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2011, 02:28 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Yes sorry that was a typo I meant 2007 here is the revised table and post.


Let me list down the probability for all dates by Sep 2011. The gate opening or new intake is purely hypothetical this is just based on the numbers.

01-JUN-2007 - 100%
15-JUN-2007 - 90%
01-JUL-2007 - 80%
15-JUL-2007 - 65%
01-AUG-2007 - 50%
15-AUG-2007 - 35%
01-SEP-2007 - 20%
15-SEP-2007 - 10%
01-OCT-2007 - 0%

The chart above is purely out of my gut feeling. They may push the dates to 15th Aug to get each and every preadjudicated case. To push till 15th Sep by the Sep bulletin is hard / less likely but not impossible. Have your hopes high what has happened till now also was considered impossible but happened.



I think you should be able to get you GC by Sep 2011 or if they can fully adjudicate your cass by September so that its eligible for a cap number latest could be October when all the formalities are completed. This is based on few examples from last year.
Thanks Teddy.Appreciate your response.
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  #2350 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2011, 03:08 PM
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What happens if cis not able to process apps on time for recently applied cases of eb1 and eb2 that r current . Do they spilled to retro categories?.right now they are processing apps from q1 & q2
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  #2351 (permalink)  
Old 06-12-2011, 11:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vijay226 View Post
What happens if cis not able to process apps on time for recently applied cases of eb1 and eb2 that r current . Do they spilled to retro categories?.right now they are processing apps from q1 & q2
These visas should spill to the retrogessed countries like EB2I / C otherwise they would end up wasting the visas and in current situation if they watse visas there would be a hue and cry.
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  #2352 (permalink)  
Old 06-13-2011, 10:35 AM
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This looks like the latest EB I-485 Inventory as of June 2011.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

Does this give any insight into some future numbers or date movement
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  #2353 (permalink)  
Old 06-13-2011, 10:58 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SVS View Post
Teddy,

I first want to thank you for the great work and for the time you've put in. In light of the effort by you and others, I thought I'd help and look at some demand numbers based on PERM filings for the year 2007. However, I'm stuck at these items:

1. I can't seem to find a received date. There's only a decision date.
2. Does the PERM data not show which category the filing is for EB1/2/3?

I got the data from flcdatacenter.com

Thanks,
SVS
Actually here is what you will need to do.
- The case number is like A-XXXXX-YYYYY
In the case number the first 2 - X positions represent the year and the next 3 represent the Julian date. So something like A-10201-YYYYY is the 201st day of 2010.
- Now unfortunately perm data is not broken by category this issue has been extensively researched. the ROW split is 50-50 while India / China are closer to 75-25 because for I/C EB3 is severely retrogressed.
Please count only certified and certified expired cases.
Thanks to you for taking this up in the absence of 485 data now perm will be the basis for sometime.
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  #2354 (permalink)  
Old 06-13-2011, 11:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mrdelhiite View Post
Hello Teddy,

Can you please update the 1st page/1st post of this thread with this new data as you always do :-)

Thanks
-M
This is the current picture for now I will adjust this information at the header of the thread, seems like the space for the post has run out, so I have updated this information on post # 3.

Let me list down the probability for all dates by Sep 2011. The gate opening or new intake is purely hypothetical this is just based on the numbers; there is a possibility of another 12K SOFAD at maximum, but most likely 8K to happen in the coming 2 bulletins. The 12K maximum can bring the preadjudicated numbers very close to exhaustion with PWMB cases providing the buffer. The chart below is purely out of my gut feeling. The agencies may push the dates to 15th Aug to get each and every preadjudicated case. Have your hopes high what has happened till now also was considered impossible as late as a few months back but has happened.

01-JUN-2007 - 100%
15-JUN-2007 - 90%
01-JUL-2007 - 80%
15-JUL-2007 - 65%
01-AUG-2007 - 50%
15-AUG-2007 - 35%
01-SEP-2007 - 20%

I believe that most of the movement will be seen in the Aug bulletin itself with the September bulletin being more of finishing touches it may just have the excess numbers which they had buffered for EB2 ROW / EB1 just in case so that any of the cases from these categories does not miss approval. My guess is that the date in the Aug bulletin will be between 15th May to 01-Jun 2007.

Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 06-13-2011 at 11:25 AM.
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  #2355 (permalink)  
Old 06-13-2011, 11:21 AM
Senior Member/Moderator
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11/01/2011
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by vijay226 View Post
What happens if cis not able to process apps on time for recently applied cases of eb1 and eb2 that r current . Do they spilled to retro categories?.right now they are processing apps from q1 & q2
They are doing exactly that, since the scrutiny is higher its taking more time to process also denials are increasing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by voicerj View Post
This looks like the latest EB I-485 Inventory as of June 2011.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20C...une%202011.pdf

Does this give any insight into some future numbers or date movement
The latest inventory is normal does not change the situation significantly, based on that we can however justify that PD porting is well under control.

Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 06-13-2011 at 11:25 AM.
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