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  #16 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 06:34 PM
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whereismygclost will become famous soon enough
Default Oct'07 EB2-I

gcwait2007,teddy and others ..what is your estimate for Oct'07 EB2-I priority date? Do you think I will be able to at least file 485 and get EAD in the 2012 spillover season ( July - Sept 2012) ?
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  #17 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 07:25 PM
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ddanait will become famous soon enough ddanait will become famous soon enough
Default What about EB2 PD August 10 2007

Any idea if August 2007 will become current this year? if not then atleast early 2012, going per calculations looks like I will be missing by few days..

Guys gear up for advocacy day, let's get numbers there and we will help us and the entire community. It's really difficult to continue living in uncertainity.

Cheers,
DD
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  #18 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 07:54 PM
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omnipresence is infamous around these parts omnipresence is infamous around these parts omnipresence is infamous around these parts omnipresence is infamous around these parts omnipresence is infamous around these parts
Default Any predictions for March bulletin?

My PD is May 17th 2006, any chances of movement in March bulletin?
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  #19 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 08:08 PM
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Thumbs up

Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
Given below is the present position:

Comparison of cumulative demand data for EB2 India, since Oct 2010:

Source: EB2-I USCIS Data - Immigration Wiki

Month Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11

CY-2006 13125 13150 13125 13150 13175
CY-2007 22850 22850 22825 22900 22975
CY-2010 22925 23000 22925 23000 23025

The availability spillover visas: 8K+4K+10K = 22K

USCIS will try to split the spillover over 3 months, each month allocating 8K visas.

For July 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Sep-2006 (about 8K visas)

For August 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Dec-2006 (about 8K visas).

For Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be either end of Feb 2007 (about 4.5K visas) or end of March 2007 (about 6.5K visas).
Great work man. I have one question though. As per Teddy's calculation, 22k of spillover will take us to Oct. 2006. I am wondering how come in your calculation the same spillover is taking us all the way to Feb/Mar 2007?
GCWait/Teddy please share your thoughts.
Thanks in advance.

Last edited by GC_1000Watt; 02-10-2011 at 08:10 PM.
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  #20 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 09:11 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by omnipresence View Post
My PD is May 17th 2006, any chances of movement in March bulletin?
Brother just wait till july.

MC
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  #21 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 09:22 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GC_1000Watt View Post
Great work man. I have one question though. As per Teddy's calculation, 22k of spillover will take us to Oct. 2006. I am wondering how come in your calculation the same spillover is taking us all the way to Feb/Mar 2007?
GCWait/Teddy please share your thoughts.
Thanks in advance.
Teddy has his own way of calculation with his own assumptions, while I have my own.

Teddy has added 8K as cushion before May 2006 as Offset, while I have not taken this offset figure.

What I tried to was to calculate/ forecast the cut-off Priority date as closely as possible to the expected reality, knowing the available factors.

Last edited by gcwait2007; 02-12-2011 at 08:39 PM.
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  #22 (permalink)  
Old 02-11-2011, 01:00 AM
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Default

Is that we had total EB2-I 18K last year per DOS report? I couldn't find it, but it was published like a few weeks ago.

So I would say this year will be similar, about total 18-20K EB2I approval, suggesting about 15-17K spillover

Still, my prediction
100% 12-2006
60% 02-2007
20% 04-2007
0% 05-2007
-100% Current
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  #23 (permalink)  
Old 02-11-2011, 04:53 AM
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Default Annual cap assumption is incorrect

Very good analysis. One discrepancy though
Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
Every month USCIS allocates 249 visas each to EB2 India and EB2 China, as part of normal quota. So there will be 1000 visas issued each to India and China in next 4 months from March 2011 to June 2011.
In this FY, there is no FB spill over and the annual limit is 140K E visas. The annual EB1/2/3 cap is 40K each. , which brings the monthly cap to 233.

Absence of 10 FB spill also means EB1 will eat into EB5 spill over.
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  #24 (permalink)  
Old 02-11-2011, 08:29 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by glimmerOfHope View Post
Very good analysis. One discrepancy though


In this FY, there is no FB spill over and the annual limit is 140K E visas. The annual EB1/2/3 cap is 40K each. , which brings the monthly cap to 233.

Absence of 10 FB spill also means EB1 will eat into EB5 spill over.
I agree. Sorry for the typo error. I edited my post to reflect this correct picture. Thanks.
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  #25 (permalink)  
Old 02-11-2011, 11:09 AM
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immig4me has a brilliant future immig4me has a brilliant future immig4me has a brilliant future immig4me has a brilliant future immig4me has a brilliant future immig4me has a brilliant future immig4me has a brilliant future immig4me has a brilliant future immig4me has a brilliant future immig4me has a brilliant future immig4me has a brilliant future
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Since this thread gets a high viewership, thought I will mention the advocacy efforts IV is undertaking this April. It is important that in addition to predicting when you will get the green card, to actively participate in efforts that may get the green card much faster than the one you are currently hoping for.....

You can contribute for this event in many ways...through your participation, through monetary contributions and through donating miles to fellow IV members who will be speaking on your behalf.
Please check my signature for the links.
Thanks guys!
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Contribute for Advocacy 2011
Donate Air Miles, Carpool, Host/Sponsor Stay
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  #26 (permalink)  
Old 02-11-2011, 12:33 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
The porting from EB3I to EB2I is in the range of 270 to 275 visas each month, in the last few months..
Thanks for the analysis, could you tell me how did you come up with the number as 270 for EB3I to EB2I porting
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  #27 (permalink)  
Old 02-11-2011, 02:50 PM
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EB2-buddy is a splendid one to behold EB2-buddy is a splendid one to behold EB2-buddy is a splendid one to behold EB2-buddy is a splendid one to behold EB2-buddy is a splendid one to behold EB2-buddy is a splendid one to behold
Default March Bulletin Out - EB3I: 03/15/2002 EB2I:No Change

March Bulletin is Out.
Good news for EB3 and no movement for EB2.
Is Porting impact concrete here??
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  #28 (permalink)  
Old 02-11-2011, 02:51 PM
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Default Bulletin Out

Bulletin Out....no Change for EB2-I

EB2-I needs to wait till July...people like me.
__________________

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My post is NOT legal advice and it's my personal opinion.
Take Advise from Immigration Attorney.
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  #29 (permalink)  
Old 02-11-2011, 02:54 PM
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Default March VB

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulleti...etin_5337.html
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  #30 (permalink)  
Old 02-11-2011, 02:56 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by vishwak View Post
Bulletin Out....no Change for EB2-I

EB2-I needs to wait till July...people like me.
these EB3 people are changing lines and creating problems, why cant they stay where they belong. now you all will start attacking me. thats ok.

MC
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Last edited by Michael chertoff; 02-11-2011 at 03:00 PM.
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