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  #2986 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2011, 06:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iyer View Post
USCIS do not have mechanics to determine 'I140 approved but I-485 not filed'.
With respect to approving I485 applications USCIS seems to operate efficiently in the past 2 years. So I assume they might have already crunched I140 approved numbers.

People in forums are speculating another july-2007 fiasco for the past 1+ years. But after seeing smooth PD movements in past several visa bulletin, I don't expect any fiasco.
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  #2987 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2011, 07:46 PM
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Default How could they get FOIA response so fast?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
There are 2 main points in the MITTBS – Chinese forum discussion the information has come out of a FOIA request.

同学们,又忍不住打了个O的电话。 - 未名空间(mitbbs.com)
NIU政府公关组获取审批数据取得进展 - 未名空间(mitbbs.com)

1) 52,475 is 1st 7 month’s consumption - Logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin. Another coincidence is 33K is the exact SOFAD that we calculated as well.

2) 19K more numbers available – This part is disputed, the FOIA request outcome says that 19K numbers are available post Aug. Most of the posters believe that 19K is available for September itself if this is true (Personally Iam not optimistic about it) then we could see another 8-10K SOFAD in September for EB2 I/C and this can easily push the dates to the Jul / Aug 2007 range. Realistically if these numbers are for Aug and Sep then we would see only 2-3K additional SOFAD which puts the dates between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.
Thanks TQ for posting the info.
What I am wondering is "How did the Chinese guys get the FOIA request on Visa Utilization responded so quickly from the agencies"?
Why did they feel like checking the visa utilization just now? Why wasnt it done earlier? To me this kind of rumour-mongering sounds more like gimmick to pull in the visitors to generate Ad-revenue.
There might not be many visas remaining, just ~5K at max including all SOFAD and what not.
I would love to be proven wrong.
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  #2988 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2011, 07:53 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by pd052011 View Post
Thanks Mr. Brown for the insight. I am confident about the PERM (I think ). I have MS+4 yrs in Information Security and work for an MNC. I was asking about the I-485 stage. If PD doesnt become current, what are the options for someone who has PERM and I-140 approved and whose H1B is about to expire in 2013? I am a newbie to this so pardon me if the questions seem infuriatingly ignorant

If you have approved I-140, then you will have 3 year extension eligible on H1B under AC21.
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  #2989 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2011, 08:34 PM
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Default

From my Chinese friend, it seems O is clear about the need for new take-in (letter below)
I was wondering how they can access O, and I was told several guys on Chinese forum have his direct line and email I am asking for EB2 info and will update. Have a great weekend

==========
Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to
begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur. I will be
consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40
s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the
advancement of the China/India cut-offs. That information will then be
compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for
use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.
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  #2990 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2011, 10:16 PM
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Default I have filed FOIA for family based pending app and it has been almost year and waitin

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_peshwa View Post
Thanks TQ for posting the info.
What I am wondering is "How did the Chinese guys get the FOIA request on Visa Utilization responded so quickly from the agencies"?
Why did they feel like checking the visa utilization just now? Why wasnt it done earlier? To me this kind of rumour-mongering sounds more like gimmick to pull in the visitors to generate Ad-revenue.
There might not be many visas remaining, just ~5K at max including all SOFAD and what not.
I would love to be proven wrong.
DOS mostly manages family based petition ( USCIS share is very less) and I have n't got any response for my FOIA filled a year ago. I wonder how did they get it so early ? Also agree with Teddy that 19k might be for August / Sep. I think anything is possible for Sep bulletin and all those sites try to generate traffic in these days.
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  #2991 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2011, 11:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_on_demand View Post
DOS mostly manages family based petition ( USCIS share is very less) and I have n't got any response for my FOIA filled a year ago. I wonder how did they get it so early ? Also agree with Teddy that 19k might be for August / Sep. I think anything is possible for Sep bulletin and all those sites try to generate traffic in these days.
Thats the only valid reason...
__________________
When you come across any immigration Frauds
# Contact the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ice.gov) by telephone at (866) DHS-2-ICE. The hotline is designed specifically to accept immigration violation reports. You can complain anonymously.

Fraud Detection and National Security (FDNS) Directorate
111 Massachusetts Ave., NW Suite 7002,
Mail Stop 2280 Washington,
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FDNS@dhs.gov
filing without current PD
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  #2992 (permalink)  
Old 07-15-2011, 11:58 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by rodnyb View Post
From my Chinese friend, it seems O is clear about the need for new take-in (letter below)
I was wondering how they can access O, and I was told several guys on Chinese forum have his direct line and email I am asking for EB2 info and will update. Have a great weekend

==========
Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to
begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur. I will be
consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40
s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the
advancement of the China/India cut-offs. That information will then be
compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for
use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.
Man...looks like Google Ad-sense is the most heavily used product during Visa Bulletin "prediction" times.
With each new "translated" post that I come across, a sense of disbelief is crawling over my hapless mind.
Either the Chinese guys are lying through their teeth or Charlie O is a very "open" personality.
I wonder why the other usually 'well informed folks' (AILA) are not able to extract the same information from CO?
We'll find out next month if these 'Chinese' sources are more reliable than other 'Made In China' stuff (no offense intended!)

Last edited by gc_peshwa; 07-16-2011 at 12:02 AM.
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  #2993 (permalink)  
Old 07-16-2011, 12:46 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by iyer View Post
My guess is EB2 would get current in the next 12 months. Currently the cut-off dates are determined based on pending I-485 applications. These would be wiped out very soon. USCIS do not have mechanics to determine 'I140 approved but I-485 not filed'. In the absence of this data, they got make EB2 current as soon all pending I485's are cleared (a similar situation to July 2007 fiasco). After they make this current, they would be able to measure all I485's received, and then the dates would retrogress.
I hope that happens. That is the BIG Question. Will they make it C, or just move it by a few months to get the demand and then move the dates forward or retrogress
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  #2994 (permalink)  
Old 07-17-2011, 09:39 AM
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Default EB3 Feb'03 -question

Hi Gurus,

My brothers I-485 is filed under EB3 with cut-off date is Feb'03. He treid to convert to EB2 but got rejected. His son is now 19.5 years old. He could not file I-485 during 2007 as he was waiting for his labor filed in old way(not perm). Now he is worried whether he can file beofre his son completes the age of 21 years.

Can anyone say when his date for EB3 (Feb'03) will become current? Thanks
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  #2995 (permalink)  
Old 07-17-2011, 10:26 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by weasley View Post
Got my green card and welcome notice today. It was approved on 7/8/11. No email/sms notification. I did not open SR or called USCIS or got Infopass.

NSC
PD:10/30/2006
RD:09/10/2007
LUD:09/10/2010

Same employee since 2006, I relocated on 04/11 and have no plans to change. Filed AR11 as soon as I relocated. I only had concern of USCIS having correct address in their files. Seems they had it .
Many congratulations, enjoy your green life.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rb_newsletter View Post
Out of 5 years 3 years had low demand due to recession. Think if the economy was doing good and there were lots of demand.
You are correct the situation can be much worse, right now are getting 30K SOFAD if things were to normalize we might start getting 10K SOFAD and it will really slow everything down. The likelihood of this happening in a year or two is less but we should move year by year only for all predictions and calculations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pod1 View Post
Hello Everyone,

I applied for I-485/I-140 on June 1st and got the finger printing date of 7/25. I am wondering how long does it take for EAD and green card after finger printing?

Thanks.
EAD / AP you should get within 90 days of filing, hopefully your GC will come also by Oct. All the best.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pod1 View Post
Hello Everyone,

I applied for I-485/I-140 on June 1st and got the finger printing date of 7/25. I am wondering how long does it take for EAD and green card after finger printing?

Thanks.
After Jul 2007 ther are 80K EB2 I/C cases. There are roughly 3K cases from Aug 2007 to Sep 2008. This will be the tough one to cross. After late 2008 to till date the density is far less. All depends what kind of SOFAD we see, we should take it year by year only because we don抰 know what factors would change.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iyer View Post
Is there a database that shows how many I-140s approved since July 2007 in EB2 - I category?
You can look at the USCIS dashboard for I140.
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  #2996 (permalink)  
Old 07-17-2011, 10:34 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by iyer View Post
My guess is EB2 would get current in the next 12 months. Currently the cut-off dates are determined based on pending I-485 applications. These would be wiped out very soon. USCIS do not have mechanics to determine 'I140 approved but I-485 not filed'. In the absence of this data, they got make EB2 current as soon all pending I485's are cleared (a similar situation to July 2007 fiasco). After they make this current, they would be able to measure all I485's received, and then the dates would retrogress.
There is another posting on the Chinese forum to suggest that they may not make th dats current but there will be gradual movement once the dates cross 15th Aug.

Quote:
Originally Posted by forever_waiting View Post
So the other "prediction" forums are abuzz with this info from the chinese where they claim to have heard from charles oppenheim (as they have claimed in the past...with several incorrect pieces of information).
Rumor being spread is that 19K or so spillover is still left over for the entire EB category.
Lets hope that this news is true. There are strong arguments either way whether the 19K is for Sep only or Aug + Sep.

Quote:
Originally Posted by easygoer View Post
Hi Gurus,

My brothers I-485 is filed under EB3 with cut-off date is Feb'03. He tried to convert to EB2 but got rejected. His son is now 19.5 years old. He could not file I-485 during 2007 as he was waiting for his labor filed in old way(not perm). Now he is worried whether he can file before his son completes the age of 21 years.

Can anyone say when his date for EB3 (Feb'03) will become current? Thanks
Its an unfortunate situation I assume for your elder brother. The latest demand data still showed 6400 cases for 2002. So it will take more than 2 years for your brother’s date to be current.

Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 07-17-2011 at 10:48 AM.
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  #2997 (permalink)  
Old 07-17-2011, 10:43 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by forever_waiting View Post
So the other "prediction" forums are abuzz with this info from the chinese where they claim to have heard from charles oppenheim (as they have claimed in the past...with several incorrect pieces of information).
Rumor being spread is that 19K or so spillover is still left over for the entire EB category.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_peshwa View Post
Thanks TQ for posting the info.
What I am wondering is "How did the Chinese guys get the FOIA request on Visa Utilization responded so quickly from the agencies"?
Why did they feel like checking the visa utilization just now? Why wasnt it done earlier? To me this kind of rumour-mongering sounds more like gimmick to pull in the visitors to generate Ad-revenue.
There might not be many visas remaining, just ~5K at max including all SOFAD and what not.
I would love to be proven wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rodnyb View Post
From my Chinese friend, it seems O is clear about the need for new take-in (letter below)
I was wondering how they can access O, and I was told several guys on Chinese forum have his direct line and email I am asking for EB2 info and will update. Have a great weekend

==========
Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to
begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur. I will be
consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘
s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the
advancement of the China/India cut-offs. That information will then be
compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for
use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_on_demand View Post
DOS mostly manages family based petition ( USCIS share is very less) and I have n't got any response for my FOIA filled a year ago. I wonder how did they get it so early ? Also agree with Teddy that 19k might be for August / Sep. I think anything is possible for Sep bulletin and all those sites try to generate traffic in these days.
Quote:
Originally Posted by snathan View Post
Thats the only valid reason...
Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_peshwa View Post
Man...looks like Google Ad-sense is the most heavily used product during Visa Bulletin "prediction" times.
With each new "translated" post that I come across, a sense of disbelief is crawling over my hapless mind.
Either the Chinese guys are lying through their teeth or Charlie O is a very "open" personality.
I wonder why the other usually 'well informed folks' (AILA) are not able to extract the same information from CO?
We'll find out next month if these 'Chinese' sources are more reliable than other 'Made In China' stuff (no offense intended!)
Friends this is just my personal take whether India or Chinese it does not matter at the end of the day it is individuals and their families who are all stuck up. I just hope people post responsibly on all the forums because any information affects many lives, people getting relief at the end via GC is more important than which forum getting traffic. Let’s hope that the information they give is true because if it turns out to be true we will hit the 01-AUG-2007 line in the September bulletin almost for sure. I would urge all to post any news they hear from all forums based on their judgment if they feel it maybe accurate (There can be no guarantees) and it helps other readers.

Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 07-17-2011 at 10:49 AM.
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  #2998 (permalink)  
Old 07-17-2011, 11:16 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Many congratulations, enjoy your green life.



You are correct the situation can be much worse, right now are getting 30K SOFAD if things were to normalize we might start getting 10K SOFAD and it will really slow everything down. The likelihood of this happening in a year or two is less but we should move year by year only for all predictions and calculations.



EAD / AP you should get within 90 days of filing, hopefully your GC will come also by Oct. All the best.



After Jul 2007 ther are 80K EB2 I/C cases. There are roughly 3K cases from Aug 2007 to Sep 2008. This will be the tough one to cross. After late 2008 to till date the density is far less. All depends what kind of SOFAD we see, we should take it year by year only because we don’t know what factors would change.



You can look at the USCIS dashboard for I140.
Hey TK,

Dashboard has a trend chart. It shows from may 09 only. Also it does not have country wise totals. How do we get the data for IC from June 07 to Sep 08?

thanks in advance
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Last edited by manchala; 07-17-2011 at 11:23 AM.
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  #2999 (permalink)  
Old 07-17-2011, 11:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by manchala View Post
Hey TK,

Dashboard has a trend chart. It shows from may 09 only. Also it does not have country wise totals. How do we get the data for IC from June 07 to Sep 08?

thanks in advance

If you look at the data it has the completions which are approvals + denials. Based on Perm data people have inferred that 50% is ROW and 50% is I/C. The within I/C 50% is EB2.
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  #3000 (permalink)  
Old 07-17-2011, 12:05 PM
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Join Date: Jul 2008
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manchala has a reputation beyond repute manchala has a reputation beyond repute manchala has a reputation beyond repute manchala has a reputation beyond repute manchala has a reputation beyond repute manchala has a reputation beyond repute manchala has a reputation beyond repute manchala has a reputation beyond repute manchala has a reputation beyond repute manchala has a reputation beyond repute manchala has a reputation beyond repute
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Is there a way to specify date range?? I didnt see any there.
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