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  #3001 (permalink)  
Old 07-17-2011, 11:26 AM
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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Its an unfortunate situation I assume for your elder brother. The latest demand data still showed 6400 cases for 2002. So it will take more than 2 years for your brothers date to be current.
Teddy, Thanks!
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  #3002 (permalink)  
Old 07-17-2011, 03:34 PM
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Originally Posted by manchala View Post
Is there a way to specify date range?? I didnt see any there.
If you download the raw data its broken by the month. Then you can apply the rates for India and EB2 on that. A rough approximation could be 1/4th. People have arrived at 80K for I/C using perm as that tags it to a PD Refer to earlier posts on this blog). With I140 we should compare the relative rates of approval it may not give a true picture because different pictures are in play at different times right now Kazarian memo has slowed things down.
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  #3003 (permalink)  
Old 07-18-2011, 04:02 PM
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Default Only 4K applied in August bulletin?

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
There is another posting on the Chinese forum to suggest that they may not make th dats current but there will be gradual movement once the dates cross 15th Aug.



Lets hope that this news is true. There are strong arguments either way whether the 19K is for Sep only or Aug + Sep.



Its an unfortunate situation I assume for your elder brother. The latest demand data still showed 6400 cases for 2002. So it will take more than 2 years for your brothers date to be current.

So assuming that the 19K is for Aug+Sept, they have only applied 4K right? Since the August visa bulletin only advanced the dates by a month.
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  #3004 (permalink)  
Old 07-18-2011, 05:40 PM
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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
There are 2 main points in the MITTBS Chinese forum discussion the information has come out of a FOIA request.

ͬѧǣ̲ס˸Oĵ绰 - δռ(mitbbs.com)
NIUȡȡýչ - δռ(mitbbs.com)

1) 52,475 is 1st 7 months consumption - Logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin. Another coincidence is 33K is the exact SOFAD that we calculated as well.

2) 19K more numbers available This part is disputed, the FOIA request outcome says that 19K numbers are available post Aug. Most of the posters believe that 19K is available for September itself if this is true (Personally Iam not optimistic about it) then we could see another 8-10K SOFAD in September for EB2 I/C and this can easily push the dates to the Jul / Aug 2007 range. Realistically if these numbers are for Aug and Sep then we would see only 2-3K additional SOFAD which puts the dates between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.
I'm feeling a little challenged right now. If 81K cases should have been approved and only 52,475 reflects the actual consumption, then how did you get 19K as SOFAD?

Thanks!
SVS
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  #3005 (permalink)  
Old 07-18-2011, 06:19 PM
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Default USCIS performance report published

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

USCIS published report for first two quaters of FY 2011.

Teddy and others,

Pls check and let us know your feedback.
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  #3006 (permalink)  
Old 07-18-2011, 07:05 PM
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Originally Posted by SVS View Post
I'm feeling a little challenged right now. If 81K cases should have been approved and only 52,475 reflects the actual consumption, then how did you get 19K as SOFAD?

Thanks!
SVS
Wondering the same. 29k from the first 7 months then we should get around 20k from the remaining 5 months, so around 49k total SO? what am i missing here, Teddy?
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  #3007 (permalink)  
Old 07-18-2011, 07:19 PM
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Is there any consensus on whether the 19K pending spillover reported on other forums is for Aug/Sep or will be for Sep alone?
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  #3008 (permalink)  
Old 07-18-2011, 07:57 PM
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Thumbs up PLZ comment on this

Quote:
Originally Posted by vijay226 View Post
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

USCIS published report for first two quaters of FY 2011.

Teddy and others,

Pls check and let us know your feedback.
TK,

Requesting your comment on Vijay's report. This seems to support the 19k remaining spillover news.
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  #3009 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2011, 12:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by silveroaks View Post
So assuming that the 19K is for Aug+Sept, they have only applied 4K right? Since the August visa bulletin only advanced the dates by a month.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SVS View Post
I'm feeling a little challenged right now. If 81K cases should have been approved and only 52,475 reflects the actual consumption, then how did you get 19K as SOFAD?

Thanks!
SVS
Quote:
Originally Posted by vijay226 View Post
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf

USCIS published report for first two quaters of FY 2011.

Teddy and others,

Pls check and let us know your feedback.
Quote:
Originally Posted by forever_waiting View Post
Is there any consensus on whether the 19K pending spillover reported on other forums is for Aug/Sep or will be for Sep alone?
Quote:
Originally Posted by shouldIwait View Post
TK,

Requesting your comment on Vijay's report. This seems to support the 19k remaining spillover news.
Friends thanks for all your postings. Here are my thoughts.

- The document shows an interesting impact of the Kazarian memo I140 receipts are higher than the approvals there is no talk about denials as such but the numbers seem to suggest a 20% denial rate. I485 backlog is coming down and approvals exceed receipts.

- The document validated the part # 1 of the mittbs news about approvals in the first 7 months the figures bear a very close correlation.

- With regards the second part of the mittbs news Iam definitely more inclined to believe that the 19K is for both Aug and Sep, here is why a) If its for September only the best of the most optimistic scenario can justify that; SOFAD may well exceed 40 K in that scenario b) In that case the Aug bulletin would have been far more positive than conservative. c) logically as well in the last 2 months there should be 17-19K left in terms of visa numbers and because of PWMB filings happening the agencies may have needed some buffer. My personal take is that there will be 3-4K SOFAD in the September bulletin. There is some chance that pipeline building might happen in September but this is something totally hypothetical and at the discretion of the agencies.

Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 07-19-2011 at 12:30 AM.
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  #3010 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2011, 09:22 AM
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Teddy,
I'm still stuck with the math. If 52,475 is the actual consumption instead of 81K, then the difference is 28,525. Would n't that be the spill over? Why do you have 19K at 7 months and extrapolated to 33K at 12 months?

Thanks in advance for the response.
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  #3011 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2011, 10:05 AM
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Default senators

Teddy / Anyone:

Do you know how to contact Senators for our cases? Is there any sample letter? How to contact them? Any Idea?

About my case:
Initially filed at TSC and got transfeered to NSC. Current as of July bulletin.
Contacted USCIS on 6th and yesterday 18th. both time same response saying case is pre-adjudicated please wait 2 weeks.

I am just cluless. Should I wait till this month end or contact senators?

Your help is appriciated.

Thanks
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  #3012 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2011, 10:26 AM
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Default

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Many congratulations, enjoy your green life.



You are correct the situation can be much worse, right now are getting 30K SOFAD if things were to normalize we might start getting 10K SOFAD and it will really slow everything down. The likelihood of this happening in a year or two is less but we should move year by year only for all predictions and calculations.



EAD / AP you should get within 90 days of filing, hopefully your GC will come also by Oct. All the best.



After Jul 2007 ther are 80K EB2 I/C cases. There are roughly 3K cases from Aug 2007 to Sep 2008. This will be the tough one to cross. After late 2008 to till date the density is far less. All depends what kind of SOFAD we see, we should take it year by year only because we dont know what factors would change.



You can look at the USCIS dashboard for I140.

Teddy, I looked at the PERM data for FY 2008 (Oct 1st 2007 and Sept 30, 2008). And i found only 22625 cases during that time for India as well as China. It also included Denied cases. So it's realistically lot lesser. how are you coming up with 80k cases?
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  #3013 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2011, 10:28 AM
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Default

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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Friends thanks for all your postings. Here are my thoughts.

- The document shows an interesting impact of the Kazarian memo I140 receipts are higher than the approvals there is no talk about denials as such but the numbers seem to suggest a 20% denial rate. I485 backlog is coming down and approvals exceed receipts.

- The document validated the part # 1 of the mittbs news about approvals in the first 7 months the figures bear a very close correlation.

- With regards the second part of the mittbs news Iam definitely more inclined to believe that the 19K is for both Aug and Sep, here is why a) If its for September only the best of the most optimistic scenario can justify that; SOFAD may well exceed 40 K in that scenario b) In that case the Aug bulletin would have been far more positive than conservative. c) logically as well in the last 2 months there should be 17-19K left in terms of visa numbers and because of PWMB filings happening the agencies may have needed some buffer. My personal take is that there will be 3-4K SOFAD in the September bulletin. There is some chance that pipeline building might happen in September but this is something totally hypothetical and at the discretion of the agencies.
Hi Teddy
Thank you for your time spending in responding to the questions. I really appreciate your help. With 3-4K SOFAD that you are predicting in Sep 2011 bulletin, what will be the Date range that we expect for EB2I? Mine is 6/13/2007 and trying to see if i can make it this year. I also understand if i miss in Sep 11 bulletin i have to wait to get mine only in May 2012? Am i right?

Thanks
Chandu
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  #3014 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2011, 11:16 AM
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Default Questions

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Friends thanks for all your postings. Here are my thoughts.

- The document shows an interesting impact of the Kazarian memo I140 receipts are higher than the approvals there is no talk about denials as such but the numbers seem to suggest a 20% denial rate. I485 backlog is coming down and approvals exceed receipts.

- The document validated the part # 1 of the mittbs news about approvals in the first 7 months the figures bear a very close correlation.

- With regards the second part of the mittbs news Iam definitely more inclined to believe that the 19K is for both Aug and Sep, here is why a) If its for September only the best of the most optimistic scenario can justify that; SOFAD may well exceed 40 K in that scenario b) In that case the Aug bulletin would have been far more positive than conservative. c) logically as well in the last 2 months there should be 17-19K left in terms of visa numbers and because of PWMB filings happening the agencies may have needed some buffer. My personal take is that there will be 3-4K SOFAD in the September bulletin. There is some chance that pipeline building might happen in September but this is something totally hypothetical and at the discretion of the agencies.
Hi Teddy,
Appreciate your response, but heres my follow up question...

If 19K is for August + Sep and if aug dates only moved a month then only approx. 4K was consumed. That leaves approx 15K for Sep right?

Also the demand data shows EB2 only 10K cases till End of 2007. Does that mean with 15K numbers left we will reach 2008?

Thanks,
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  #3015 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2011, 11:23 AM
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Default Some simple math

Let us do some simple math here looking at the 1st half 2011 report. They issued 45000 EB visas. Extrapolate that to 3 quarters, we could say they issued up to 80,000 visas not counting the spillover. My contention is that the spillover we have got till now is from the first 3 quarters. How many total visas were available for the first three quarters: 140,000*3/4=105,000. So how much could be the spillover: 105000-80000=25000 which is pretty close to what we have got till now. Now we have 35000 visas remaining for Q4 and let us say the non-spillover consumption is the same 23000 (80000/3). That leaves us with 12000 visas remaining for September. Even if they have taken the August spillover out from those 12000, we still have about 8000 more to go. But I doubt they would spillover from the last quarter in august because when August visa bulletin is released they do not have a good count of how many visas they would need for EB1 and EB2ROW. Therefore, at least I'm hoping, they will spillover all of the Q4 SOFAD in September. That would be as much as 12000. A significant amount of that might of course be taken up by people who were not able to file 485 in July 07, and the September date would depend on the number of such people.
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