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  #3016 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2011, 12:11 PM
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I honestly believe Travel Dept made a mistake in AUG Bulletin, as per my calculations dates should have progressed to Sept 2007.
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  #3017 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2011, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by dinearok View Post
Teddy, I looked at the PERM data for FY 2008 (Oct 1st 2007 and Sept 30, 2008). And i found only 22625 cases during that time for India as well as China. It also included Denied cases. So it's realistically lot lesser. how are you coming up with 80k cases?
You have to look at I&C PD2007 cases approved in 2008,2009 and 2010. Remember not all PERM cases get approval in same year they are filed.

Teddy's 80k number is all I&C PERM approvals to date since July 2007.
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Last edited by veni001; 07-19-2011 at 01:13 PM.
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  #3018 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2011, 01:21 PM
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Originally Posted by SVS View Post
Teddy,
I'm still stuck with the math. If 52,475 is the actual consumption instead of 81K, then the difference is 28,525. Would n't that be the spill over? Why do you have 19K at 7 months and extrapolated to 33K at 12 months?

Thanks in advance for the response.
Quote:
Originally Posted by amjun View Post
Let us do some simple math here looking at the 1st half 2011 report. They issued 45000 EB visas. Extrapolate that to 3 quarters, we could say they issued up to 80,000 visas not counting the spillover. My contention is that the spillover we have got till now is from the first 3 quarters. How many total visas were available for the first three quarters: 140,000*3/4=105,000. So how much could be the spillover: 105000-80000=25000 which is pretty close to what we have got till now. Now we have 35000 visas remaining for Q4 and let us say the non-spillover consumption is the same 23000 (80000/3). That leaves us with 12000 visas remaining for September. Even if they have taken the August spillover out from those 12000, we still have about 8000 more to go. But I doubt they would spillover from the last quarter in august because when August visa bulletin is released they do not have a good count of how many visas they would need for EB1 and EB2ROW. Therefore, at least I'm hoping, they will spillover all of the Q4 SOFAD in September. That would be as much as 12000. A significant amount of that might of course be taken up by people who were not able to file 485 in July 07, and the September date would depend on the number of such people.

Quote:
Originally Posted by silveroaks View Post
Hi Teddy,
Appreciate your response, but heres my follow up question...

If 19K is for August + Sep and if aug dates only moved a month then only approx. 4K was consumed. That leaves approx 15K for Sep right?

Also the demand data shows EB2 only 10K cases till End of 2007. Does that mean with 15K numbers left we will reach 2008?

Thanks,

Let me clarify in detail, I hope I understood your question correctly. The figures 52475 and 81K are with respect to the 7 month mark from the MITTBS news. Now one good news is tat this was validated by the document posted yesterday as well. We should consider this 28K as SOFAD in the sense that it includes the annual allocation also. Now if we calibrate against the bulletins as well we may have seen 30K SOFAD by the Aug bulletin and ~ 28K by the Jul bulletin. So the 28K till this stage is kind of already used up. Now the second part of the MITTBS news suggests about the 19K I believe that its for Aug & Sep now at this stage we could possibly expect another 3-4K. Just to clarify the 19K is from MITTBS these are all numbers available for all categories and the 33K is the calculation of EB2 I/C SOFAD over the year so these are independent of each other.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MYGC2008 View Post
Teddy / Anyone:

Do you know how to contact Senators for our cases? Is there any sample letter? How to contact them? Any Idea?

About my case:
Initially filed at TSC and got transfeered to NSC. Current as of July bulletin.
Contacted USCIS on 6th and yesterday 18th. both time same response saying case is pre-adjudicated please wait 2 weeks.

I am just cluless. Should I wait till this month end or contact senators?

Your help is appriciated.

Thanks
There is really a little bit of luck in this two of my colleagues who are current this month got it yesterday and Monday. All the best to you. IMHO does not harm initiating an inquiry.

Quote:
Originally Posted by dinearok View Post
Teddy, I looked at the PERM data for FY 2008 (Oct 1st 2007 and Sept 30, 2008). And i found only 22625 cases during that time for India as well as China. It also included Denied cases. So it's realistically lot lesser. how are you coming up with 80k cases?
80K is the figure till date; also refer to comments from Veni that some could be approved later so they will be in files for later years.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gchandu View Post
Hi Teddy
Thank you for your time spending in responding to the questions. I really appreciate your help. With 3-4K SOFAD that you are predicting in Sep 2011 bulletin, what will be the Date range that we expect for EB2I? Mine is 6/13/2007 and trying to see if i can make it this year. I also understand if i miss in Sep 11 bulletin i have to wait to get mine only in May 2012? Am i right?

Thanks
Chandu
My prediction is a little conservative in terms of numbers we could expect just 3-4K of SOFAD. This would put the dates around May 15th. However let’s wait and watch hey could even move the dates a little further not for approvals but to take in extra demand. I would give you a 40% chance to be current.

Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 07-19-2011 at 01:24 PM.
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  #3019 (permalink)  
Old 07-19-2011, 04:41 PM
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Originally Posted by veni001 View Post
You have to look at I&C PD2007 cases approved in 2008,2009 and 2010. Remember not all PERM cases get approval in same year they are filed.

Teddy's 80k number is all I&C PERM approvals to date since July 2007.
okay, gotcha..that makes sense..i thought Teddy was referring to only FY 2008.
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  #3020 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2011, 04:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post

You can look at the USCIS dashboard for I140.
Can you please send the link? The page I got into shows only graph since June 2009. Thanks,
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  #3021 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2011, 04:34 PM
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Originally Posted by iyer View Post
Can you please send the link? The page I got into shows only graph since June 2009. Thanks,
Refer USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends.

Also refer to the huge surge in the last 2 months.
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  #3022 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2011, 05:26 PM
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Data source: FLCDataCenter.com

Between October 2007 and September 2010, only approximately 6000 labor certifications for china. So China EB2 numbers should be current very soon.

Between October 2007 and September 2010, approximately 38k labor certifications for India. Not dismal. This 38k could go down due to the following (roughly 50%):
a) I-140 denials,
b) individual no longer with the sponsorer
c) individual got his green card through FB
d) individual left the country
e) Labor expired

The number could go up due to - addition of spouse and children (multiply by 3 on an average).

Applying the above unknown, then the split between EB2and EB3 (50/50 split)

For simplicity, EB2-I demand for these 3 years should be only: 19k x 3 x 50% = 29k.

Considering there will be no backlog with China numbers, all SOFAD should benefit EB2-I for the next year.

In conclusion, my guess is EB2-I would get current by September 2012 without any legislation changes.

Last edited by iyer; 07-21-2011 at 05:28 PM.
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  #3023 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2011, 05:50 PM
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Default May be/May notbe

SOFAD is not going to be the same every year. EB1 and Eb2 ROW had lot of approvals this year (2011), and that means spill up/down is going to reduce.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iyer View Post
Data source: FLCDataCenter.com

Between October 2007 and September 2010, only approximately 6000 labor certifications for china. So China EB2 numbers should be current very soon.

Between October 2007 and September 2010, approximately 38k labor certifications for India. Not dismal. This 38k could go down due to the following (roughly 50%):
a) I-140 denials,
b) individual no longer with the sponsorer
c) individual got his green card through FB
d) individual left the country
e) Labor expired

The number could go up due to - addition of spouse and children (multiply by 3 on an average).

Applying the above unknown, then the split between EB2and EB3 (50/50 split)

For simplicity, EB2-I demand for these 3 years should be only: 19k x 3 x 50% = 29k.

Considering there will be no backlog with China numbers, all SOFAD should benefit EB2-I for the next year.

In conclusion, my guess is EB2-I would get current by September 2012 without any legislation changes.
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  #3024 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2011, 05:53 PM
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I hope you are correct Iyer - it would be awesome if dates became current by next year.

Unfortunately, I don't think the data supports this. A few months back I did a similar calculations using PERM data and arrived at almost the same conclusion. However, upon discussing my predictions with Teddy and other Gurus here, realized that one should count not just approved PERM filings but also Approved & Expired PERM filings. If one does that, the number of actual PERMs increases exponentially.

Also, there is a line of thought that the actual EB2 - EB3 split is 75-25 , not 50/50. This kind of seems logical as EB3 has been retrogressed for many years now.

I don't mean to burst your bubble, but its going to be near impossible for dates to become current next year. I do however pray for both my sake and for everyone else's sake that the impossible happens and USCIS makes the date current.

I guess we have to continue waiting!
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  #3025 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2011, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by mechanical13 View Post
I hope you are correct Iyer - it would be awesome if dates became current by next year.

Unfortunately, I don't think the data supports this. A few months back I did a similar calculations using PERM data and arrived at almost the same conclusion. However, upon discussing my predictions with Teddy and other Gurus here, realized that one should count not just approved PERM filings but also Approved & Expired PERM filings. If one does that, the number of actual PERMs increases exponentially.

Also, there is a line of thought that the actual EB2 - EB3 split is 75-25 , not 50/50. This kind of seems logical as EB3 has been retrogressed for many years now.

I don't mean to burst your bubble, but its going to be near impossible for dates to become current next year. I do however pray for both my sake and for everyone else's sake that the impossible happens and USCIS makes the date current.

I guess we have to continue waiting!
why should expired labor certifications included?
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  #3026 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2011, 06:15 PM
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Default I think your PERM count is wrong

Your PERM count should be more than 60K till date..
Quote:
Originally Posted by iyer View Post
Data source: FLCDataCenter.com

Between October 2007 and September 2010, only approximately 6000 labor certifications for china. So China EB2 numbers should be current very soon.

Between October 2007 and September 2010, approximately 38k labor certifications for India. Not dismal. This 38k could go down due to the following (roughly 50%):
a) I-140 denials,
b) individual no longer with the sponsorer
c) individual got his green card through FB
d) individual left the country
e) Labor expired

The number could go up due to - addition of spouse and children (multiply by 3 on an average).

Applying the above unknown, then the split between EB2and EB3 (50/50 split)

For simplicity, EB2-I demand for these 3 years should be only: 19k x 3 x 50% = 29k.

Considering there will be no backlog with China numbers, all SOFAD should benefit EB2-I for the next year.

In conclusion, my guess is EB2-I would get current by September 2012 without any legislation changes.
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  #3027 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2011, 06:22 PM
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Originally Posted by vbkris77 View Post
Your PERM count should be more than 60K till date..
You can go to flcdatacenter.com and download those 3 years data files (access file) and calculate. I got my numbers from that website.
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  #3028 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2011, 06:50 PM
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Hello Guys,

Below information regarding the cut off dates,I got from the travel.state.gov

Based on this information total number of visas available(on EB2 Category) for each employment preference
category and country for fiscal year 2011 is 11212(.i.e. for EB1 5606 and for 5606 for EB2).

Unused visa numbers can “fall-down” from E1 to E2 to E3.

Right now EB1 category is current for all countries.So as for this info 5606 visa numbers fall-down to Eb2 which will available(11212) for EB2 category.



Cumulative Demand Prior To January 1, 2011 is 10,775 which is lessthan availability.

So is there any possibility for EB2 become current in near future.

By the way my priority date is Dec-2010(EB2)

Please share your opinions.
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  #3029 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2011, 06:51 PM
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All PERM petitions expire after 6 months even if they were approved and an I140 was filed. So you need to include expired too.
that explains the offset that vbkris is referring to.
There are more than 70K applications (EB2 I+C) from aug 07 to dec 2010.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iyer View Post
why should expired labor certifications included?

Last edited by forever_waiting; 07-21-2011 at 06:55 PM.
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  #3030 (permalink)  
Old 07-21-2011, 08:34 PM
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Originally Posted by forever_waiting View Post
All PERM petitions expire after 6 months even if they were approved and an I140 was filed. So you need to include expired too.
that explains the offset that vbkris is referring to.
There are more than 70K applications (EB2 I+C) from aug 07 to dec 2010.
Assuming your logic is correct, then adding expired would be double count to some extent. A perm applied and approved in fy 2008 would expire in either fy 2008 or fy 2009. So if you count certified and expired then it would be double count.
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