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  #3031 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 01:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iyer View Post
Assuming your logic is correct, then adding expired would be double count to some extent. A perm applied and approved in fy 2008 would expire in either fy 2008 or fy 2009. So if you count certified and expired then it would be double count.
no, all PERM expire after 6 months,,and the number includes every single one of them. so the number of total PERM is correct but not all PERM are converted in into I140,,so approved I 140s are most probably less thn total PERM count
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  #3032 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 01:49 PM
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Default Count for I-140's

Maybe we should request USCIS to provide the number of approved I-140's in addition to the PERM fillings. This should help us in predicting the pending cases more accurately.
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  #3033 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 02:24 PM
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Originally Posted by harrydr View Post
Maybe we should request USCIS to provide the number of approved I-140's in addition to the PERM fillings. This should help us in predicting the pending cases more accurately.
We have already made calculations and submitted for both USCIS and DOS with recommendations. If accepted, some favorable changes could happen in date movement towards the end of this year and further. Based on our recent experience in working to fix EAD delays for IV members, our recommendations do get taken seriously. So let us hope for the best.
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Last edited by pappu; 07-22-2011 at 02:31 PM.
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  #3034 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 02:40 PM
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Originally Posted by pappu View Post
We have already made calculations and submitted for both USCIS and DOS with recommendations. If accepted, some favorable changes could happen in date movement towards the end of this year and further. Based on our recent experience in working to fix EAD delays for IV members, our recommendations do get taken seriously. So let us hope for the best.
Hope and the work of IV keep us going...
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  #3035 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 03:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post

80K is the figure till date; also refer to comments from Veni that some could be approved later so they will be in files for later years.

Hi Teddy,

Is this 80K just the PERM filings remaining to date or does this number account for the dependents too (spouse and/or children)? In other words, are the remaining people waiting to file I-485 from Aug 07 to date 80k or 160k-170k. Please let me know.

Your insights are wonderful and greatly appreciated. Thanks.
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  #3036 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 03:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vidyas_m View Post
Hi Teddy,

Is this 80K just the PERM filings remaining to date or does this number account for the dependents too (spouse and/or children)? In other words, are the remaining people waiting to file I-485 from Aug 07 to date 80k or 160k-170k. Please let me know.

Your insights are wonderful and greatly appreciated. Thanks.
80K - primary applicants only.
80K * 2.5 = 200k including dependents. (though in reality, this will be the worst case)
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  #3037 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 03:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vidyas_m View Post
Hi Teddy,

Is this 80K just the PERM filings remaining to date or does this number account for the dependents too (spouse and/or children)? In other words, are the remaining people waiting to file I-485 from Aug 07 to date 80k or 160k-170k. Please let me know.

Your insights are wonderful and greatly appreciated. Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by belmontboy View Post
80K - primary applicants only.
80K * 2.5 = 200k including dependents. (though in reality, this will be the worst case)
80K in approximation is the EB2 I/C backlog till date, this 485 not perm/I140 dependents have been multiplied already. Different people are coming up with slightly different numbers because everyone uses a slightly different ratio of EB2 and EB3. Additionally there will be porting cases so 70-80K is a fair range to assume from Aug 2007 to till date. So even @30K per annum its atleast 3 years away if the SOFAD reduces for any reason you can all imagine what will happen. Late 2007 and till Q3 20008 is the heaviest density I will update the header of the thread with this information I assume many new readers will be interested in knowing this.
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  #3038 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 03:51 PM
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Thanks, Teddy and belmontboy.
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  #3039 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 04:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belmontboy View Post
80K - primary applicants only.
80K * 2.5 = 200k including dependents. (though in reality, this will be the worst case)
sorry. i was wrong.
Teddy's info is right.
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  #3040 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 05:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belmontboy View Post
sorry. i was wrong.
Teddy's info is right.
Please look at my earlier post, late last month I think on 6/17. My analysis was month-by-month from Aug 07 to Dec 09. I used EB2/EB3 ratio as 1:4 and family multiplier as 2.2 and I included all of PWMB in my calculation.
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  #3041 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 06:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pappu View Post
We have already made calculations and submitted for both USCIS and DOS with recommendations. If accepted, some favorable changes could happen in date movement towards the end of this year and further. Based on our recent experience in working to fix EAD delays for IV members, our recommendations do get taken seriously. So let us hope for the best.
Good effort! Thank you IV!
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  #3042 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 08:17 PM
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Default August 2007 - Dec 2010 Demand Estimates

Below is my estimates of Aug 2007-Dec 2010 demand based on PERM data. For 2007 apps, I included PERM that were approved post july/aug 2007 which explains the jan - aug numbers. As TK pointed out, the total numbers >80K.
For the last column (i.e. actual number of applications), I included the following factors. This varies greatly between various people doing this analysis..I am just taking an average.

eb2 share - 60%
Dependents (DoS Factor) 2.20
I140 Approval Rate 80%
Redundancy/Layoffs 80%
AOS % 90% (10% is CP)

This gives a rough idea of number of people ahead of your PD (go down first column for your PD and then look at entry on last column - which includes factors - to determine tentative post july 2007 filers ahead of your PD). Remember that for total backlog, we need to include existing backlog/inventory (i.e. apr - july 2007 pre-adjucated cases and other 2007 cases who are yet to be cleared, porting etc etc.)...for which there is still some way to go.

PD # of Cumulative Net Including "factors"
PERM
Apps

2005 46 46 35
2006 253 299 227
Jan-07 74 373 283
Feb-07 114 487 370
Mar-07 149 636 483
Apr-07 310 946 719
May-07 698 1644 1249
Jun-07 1107 2751 2091
Jul-07 1199 3950 3002
Aug-07 2099 6049 4597
Sep-07 2293 8342 6340
Oct-07 2626 10968 8336
Nov-07 2433 13401 10185
Dec-07 2246 15647 11892
Jan-08 2897 18544 14093
Feb-08 2730 21274 16168
Mar-08 2243 23517 17873
Apr-08 2713 26230 19935
May-08 2510 28740 21842
Jun-08 2134 30874 23464
Jul-08 2035 32909 25011
Aug-08 2002 34911 26532
Sep-08 1849 36760 27938
Oct-08 2355 39115 29727
Nov-08 1959 41074 31216
Dec-08 2059 43133 32781
Jan-09 2028 45161 34322
Feb-09 1755 46916 35656
Mar-09 1738 48654 36977
Apr-09 1824 50478 38363
May-09 1429 51907 39449
Jun-09 1354 53261 40478
Jul-09 1241 54502 41422
Aug-09 1210 55712 42341
Sep-09 1457 57169 43448
Oct-09 1462 58631 44560
Nov-09 1319 59950 45562
Dec-09 1415 61365 46637
Jan-10 1462 62827 47749
Feb-10 1272 64099 48715
Mar-10 1671 65770 49985
Apr-10 1570 67340 51178
May-10 1624 68964 52413
Jun-10 1954 70918 53898
Jul-10 1685 72603 55178
Aug-10 2193 74796 56845
Sep-10 2190 76986 58509
Oct-10 2341 79327 60289
Nov-10 2402 81729 62114
Dec-10 3027 84756 64415
Attached Files
File Type: txt aug07-dec10.txt (1.2 KB, 36 views)

Last edited by forever_waiting; 07-23-2011 at 03:13 PM.
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  #3043 (permalink)  
Old 07-22-2011, 09:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
80K in approximation is the EB2 I/C backlog till date, this 485 not perm/I140 dependents have been multiplied already. Different people are coming up with slightly different numbers because everyone uses a slightly different ratio of EB2 and EB3. Additionally there will be porting cases so 70-80K is a fair range to assume from Aug 2007 to till date. So even @30K per annum its atleast 3 years away if the SOFAD reduces for any reason you can all imagine what will happen. Late 2007 and till Q3 20008 is the heaviest density I will update the header of the thread with this information I assume many new readers will be interested in knowing this.
Teddy,

Did you get a chance to look at the link from where I obtained labor certified data for 3 years (OCT 07 to sep10)? Per that database only 60k total labor approvals during that period. Of which china is less than 10k and india is around 38k. These numbers include all visa categories including strangely l1 visa. Given the total at 60k for 3 years I do not see 80k for eb 2 india and china. Of this 38k, I guess many would not still be in USA in this economy. And then not many in eb2 as well.
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  #3044 (permalink)  
Old 07-23-2011, 02:55 PM
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You are simply trying to re-invent the wheel. this calc has been done several times by several people. Go back and check your numbers, include certified and certified-expired and it will be clear the EB2-IC backlog post July 2007 and till end of 2010 is 80K+.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iyer View Post
Teddy,

Did you get a chance to look at the link from where I obtained labor certified data for 3 years (OCT 07 to sep10)? Per that database only 60k total labor approvals during that period. Of which china is less than 10k and india is around 38k. These numbers include all visa categories including strangely l1 visa. Given the total at 60k for 3 years I do not see 80k for eb 2 india and china. Of this 38k, I guess many would not still be in USA in this economy. And then not many in eb2 as well.

Last edited by lostcause2007; 07-23-2011 at 03:01 PM.
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  #3045 (permalink)  
Old 07-23-2011, 03:18 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by forever_waiting View Post
Below is my estimates of Aug 2007-Dec 2010 demand based on PERM data. For 2007 apps, I included PERM that were approved post july/aug 2007 which explains the jan - aug numbers. As TK pointed out, the total numbers >80K.
For the last column (i.e. actual number of applications), I included the following factors. This varies greatly between various people doing this analysis..I am just taking an average.

eb2 share - 60%
Dependents (DoS Factor) 2.20
I140 Approval Rate 80%
Redundancy/Layoffs 80%
AOS % 90% (10% is CP)

This gives a rough idea of number of people ahead of your PD (go down first column for your PD and then look at entry on last column - which includes factors - to determine tentative post july 2007 filers ahead of your PD). Remember that for total backlog, we need to include existing backlog/inventory (i.e. apr - july 2007 pre-adjucated cases and other 2007 cases who are yet to be cleared, porting etc etc.)...for which there is still some way to go.

PD # of Cumulative Net Including "factors"
PERM
Apps

2005 46 46 35
2006 253 299 227
Jan-07 74 373 283
Feb-07 114 487 370
Mar-07 149 636 483
Apr-07 310 946 719
May-07 698 1644 1249
Jun-07 1107 2751 2091
Jul-07 1199 3950 3002
Aug-07 2099 6049 4597
Sep-07 2293 8342 6340
Oct-07 2626 10968 8336
Nov-07 2433 13401 10185
Dec-07 2246 15647 11892
Jan-08 2897 18544 14093
Feb-08 2730 21274 16168
Mar-08 2243 23517 17873
Apr-08 2713 26230 19935
May-08 2510 28740 21842
Jun-08 2134 30874 23464
Jul-08 2035 32909 25011
Aug-08 2002 34911 26532
Sep-08 1849 36760 27938
Oct-08 2355 39115 29727
Nov-08 1959 41074 31216
Dec-08 2059 43133 32781
Jan-09 2028 45161 34322
Feb-09 1755 46916 35656
Mar-09 1738 48654 36977
Apr-09 1824 50478 38363
May-09 1429 51907 39449
Jun-09 1354 53261 40478
Jul-09 1241 54502 41422
Aug-09 1210 55712 42341
Sep-09 1457 57169 43448
Oct-09 1462 58631 44560
Nov-09 1319 59950 45562
Dec-09 1415 61365 46637
Jan-10 1462 62827 47749
Feb-10 1272 64099 48715
Mar-10 1671 65770 49985
Apr-10 1570 67340 51178
May-10 1624 68964 52413
Jun-10 1954 70918 53898
Jul-10 1685 72603 55178
Aug-10 2193 74796 56845
Sep-10 2190 76986 58509
Oct-10 2341 79327 60289
Nov-10 2402 81729 62114
Dec-10 3027 84756 64415
This is great work! Thanks. In my opinion I-140 approval rates and redundancy are somewhat optimistic. A more conservative choice might be 95% for both. Moreover, based on analysis elsewhere, EB2 %age is 75% and the dependents factor is 2.09 in recent times. But thanks for posting numbers without the factor and number of PERM approved. Are number of PERM approved for EB2 I&C only?

Last edited by dkshitij; 07-23-2011 at 03:21 PM.
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