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  #3076 (permalink)  
Old 07-26-2011, 11:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArkBird View Post
Let me rephrase it. How about any relief for people waiting longest and will continue to wait for the foreseeable future? Here is one idea.

An admin fix advocacy for using PD irrespective of category as a criteria for spillover till difference in current priority date between EB2 & EB3 is 3-4 years? Here is my reasoning. Historically gap between EB2 & EB3 priority date has always been less than 3-4 years. This will help restore balance back between EB2 & EB3.
@ArkBird : It used to be the practice in the past applying spillover to all irrespective of category, prior to USCIS started Interpreting and applying the law the "correct way !!" which is the current process. I am not sure if we can win with this request.
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  #3077 (permalink)  
Old 07-26-2011, 12:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_peshwa View Post
TK can you delete the irrelevant /off topics posts including this one?
Friends I would appeal to all to have this blog primarily for Predictions & Calculations. Having a limited discussion on other topics is fine as long as we do not significantly digress from the main essence and objective of the thread. I agree that some of the other topics are important and significant to many of us but will request if you can create separate threads for the same.
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  #3078 (permalink)  
Old 07-26-2011, 12:40 PM
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Default Mumbai VB site

Mumbai VB site is still not updated....guess they must be really gun shy now

Cut Off Dates- Consulate General of the United States Mumbai, India
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  #3079 (permalink)  
Old 07-26-2011, 01:15 PM
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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Friends I would appeal to all to have this blog primarily for Predictions & Calculations. Having a limited discussion on other topics is fine as long as we do not significantly digress from the main essence and objective of the thread. I agree that some of the other topics are important and significant to many of us but will request if you can create separate threads for the same.
Also, it will be better if we can separate EB3 predictions into another thread, even though there is not much to predict about EB3 now. The title of this thread is misleading because everything that is being discussed in this thread is about EB2. There is hardly anything mentioned about EB3, for obvious reasons. I don't have any interest in reading 100s of posts about EB2 because it is mostly irrelevant to me at this point. Regardless, thanks a lot for the continuous efforts of people like you.
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  #3080 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2011, 02:53 PM
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EB1 approval statistics are available on (The Oh Law Firm) – OH Law Site.
For a simplistic calculation I will use only 2011 approvals.
EB1 I 140's approved in 2011 are 8712. However this report is dated Jul 19th So probably the data maybe from Jul 01 itself. So we should extrapolate this data for 12 months proportionately this would be 12/9 * 8712 = 11616.
I would like to assume the dependent factor for EB1 to be slightly higher; especially the EB1 C folks however lets use 2.25 and assume a 100% throughput to 485 approvals. This gives the approximate usage to ~ 26K. If we would have assumed the dependent factor to be 2.5 then the usage comes to 29K. Averaging this out we can settle at 27.5K.
Also note that there is an unprecedented level of EB1 backlog there is likelihood that in addition to this year some old cases will be approved. There are several examples on That Site for concurrently filed cases wherein people see direct approval of the 485 itself because both 140 and 485 are processed in parallel with 140 being the tougher part. The SOFAD from EB1 being ~ 12K is very much in line with all calculations.

Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 07-29-2011 at 03:02 PM.
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  #3081 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2011, 03:03 PM
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Default

I believe that the ball park figure of 32K SOFAD being already used with this there may not be more than 2-3K left for September. Additionally porting have now stated in EB2 ROW as well because EB3 ROW have not moved much this year, EB2 ROW approvals are fairly consistent on That Site. The possibility for both the extremes 0 and 7K is extremely minimum the answer is probably closer to the middle. The extremes are theoretical possibilities at best. Roughly 30-32K SOFAD has happened, another 7K happening is the best of the best case scenario and nothing happening is way way too conservative. Realistically the pace of the September bulletin should be slightly less than Aug which was only 2.5K. Even though this may seem theoretical in reality the range for September seems to be in the range 2.5K to 3K. Even last year September was more of a finisher month this maybe even more true because Jul was way too long a shot they tested the waters sufficiently in July. Lets hope for the best in September. The only possibility of 7-8K movement is if the agencies are slightly unsure of Eb1 + EB2 ROW and they may just move the dates to 15-AUG-2007 to play safe. If that happens then only some not all people current will get approved.
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  #3082 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2011, 03:10 PM
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Default EB3 and EB2 converge

Quote:
Originally Posted by snthampi View Post
Also, it will be better if we can separate EB3 predictions into another thread, even though there is not much to predict about EB3 now. The title of this thread is misleading because everything that is being discussed in this thread is about EB2. There is hardly anything mentioned about EB3, for obvious reasons. I don't have any interest in reading 100s of posts about EB2 because it is mostly irrelevant to me at this point. Regardless, thanks a lot for the continuous efforts of people like you.
When the PD move forward beyond later 2007 for EB2, EB2 will become just another EB3 with amount of PERM petitions that were certified in EB2 after July fiasco. Then people talk about EB2 to EB1 porting and start discussing about EB1 predictions.
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  #3083 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2011, 04:19 PM
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Default Analysis

@Teddy -

That was a good analysis based on the EB1 statistics but here is the USCIS link for service wide receipts and approvals of all forms. Can that be looked at and anything be concluded for EB2 India movement?

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf
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  #3084 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2011, 04:43 PM
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Default We need to get innovative

I think we need to get innovative in terms of getting the next year demand across the board. PERM database could be a starting point, but beyond that we may need to up our pressure on USCIS to publish entire I140 data to public in the same way they have published EB1 data to AILA.

Unless USCIS becomes really efficient they could potentially get back to their shell and start wasting visas.

I have a questions to those who got to file I485, looking at I485 application and I140 approval notice, is there any common field that tells that these 2 applications are tied apart from name?
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  #3085 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2011, 05:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vinodindia View Post
@Teddy -

That was a good analysis based on the EB1 statistics but here is the USCIS link for service wide receipts and approvals of all forms. Can that be looked at and anything be concluded for EB2 India movement?

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources...11-2nd-Qtr.pdf
The document shows an interesting impact of the Kazarian memo I140 receipts are higher than the approvals there is no talk about denials as such but the numbers seem to suggest a 20% denial rate. I485 backlog is coming down and approvals exceed receipts. The document does indicate higher spillover for tis year compared to last year. This year we have already seen 30K already as opposed to 26K last year. However if for some reason the I40 approval rates pick up the SOFAD in the coming year will decline.
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  #3086 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2011, 05:03 PM
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Default VB EB2 Cutoff Date Movements in past 2.5 years

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
I believe that the ball park figure of 32K SOFAD being already used with this there may not be more than 2-3K left for September. Additionally porting have now stated in EB2 ROW as well because EB3 ROW have not moved much this year, EB2 ROW approvals are fairly consistent on That Site. The possibility for both the extremes 0 and 7K is extremely minimum the answer is probably closer to the middle. The extremes are theoretical possibilities at best. Roughly 30-32K SOFAD has happened, another 7K happening is the best of the best case scenario and nothing happening is way way too conservative. Realistically the pace of the September bulletin should be slightly less than Aug which was only 2.5K. Even though this may seem theoretical in reality the range for September seems to be in the range 2.5K to 3K. Even last year September was more of a finisher month this maybe even more true because Jul was way too long a shot they tested the waters sufficiently in July. Lets hope for the best in September. The only possibility of 7-8K movement is if the agencies are slightly unsure of Eb1 + EB2 ROW and they may just move the dates to 15-AUG-2007 to play safe. If that happens then only some not all people current will get approved.
2009
Jan 1-Jul-03
Feb 1-Jan-04
Mar 15-Feb-04
Apr 15-Feb-04
May 15-Feb-04
Jun 1-Jan-00
Jul 1-Jan-00
Aug 1-Oct-03
Sept 8-Jan-05
Oct 22-Jan-05
Nov 22-Jan-05
Dec 22-Jan-05
------------

2010
Jan 22-Jan-05
Feb 22-Jan-05
Mar 1-Feb-05
Apr 1-Feb-05
May 1-Feb-05
Jun 1-Feb-05
Jul 1-Oct-05
Aug 1-Mar-06
Sept 8-May-06
Oct 8-May-06
Nov 8-May-06
Dec 8-May-06

----------
2011
Jan 8-May-06
Feb 8-May-06
Mar 8-May-06
Apr 8-May-06
May 1-Jul-06
Jun 15-Oct-06
Jul 8-Mar-07
Aug 15-Apr-07
Sept ?

Last edited by saarejahanseaccha; 07-29-2011 at 05:07 PM.
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  #3087 (permalink)  
Old 07-29-2011, 05:09 PM
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Default

Thanks Teddy! Based on an analysis in forum on this one, someone mentioned that this document that I linked suggests that there could be a lot more spill over in September and hence was wondering if that was your thought as well. Thanks for the response
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  #3088 (permalink)  
Old 07-30-2011, 09:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vinodindia View Post
Thanks Teddy! Based on an analysis in forum on this one, someone mentioned that this document that I linked suggests that there could be a lot more spill over in September and hence was wondering if that was your thought as well. Thanks for the response
Taking eb3 beyond aug2007 doesn't make any sense even if numbers are available. Could also lead to wastage of those numbers
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  #3089 (permalink)  
Old 07-30-2011, 11:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vinodindia View Post
Thanks Teddy! Based on an analysis in forum on this one, someone mentioned that this document that I linked suggests that there could be a lot more spill over in September and hence was wondering if that was your thought as well. Thanks for the response
Quote:
Originally Posted by immigrant2007 View Post
Taking eb3 beyond aug2007 doesn't make any sense even if numbers are available. Could also lead to wastage of those numbers
My belief is that EB2 I may get 2-3K spillover more and settle between 01-JUN-2007 to 15-JUN-2007 while EB3 India will settle between 01-JUN-2002 (Current point) and 15-JUN-2002. For EB2-I some projections are projecting 7K, I feel the agencies could push the dates that far only to be safe then all cases might not see approvals but it will help the PWMB's file for 485.
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  #3090 (permalink)  
Old 07-30-2011, 01:47 PM
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I pray that both EB2 and EB3 will be current until July 2007 so that folks who left out and were approved I-140 after 2007 Fiasco, might get a chance to file I-485. Please God help us!
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