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  #3091 (permalink)  
Old 07-30-2011, 02:49 PM
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Apr-07
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
My belief is that EB2 I may get 2-3K spillover more and settle between 01-JUN-2007 to 15-JUN-2007 while EB3 India will settle between 01-JUN-2002 (Current point) and 15-JUN-2002. For EB2-I some projections are projecting 7K, I feel the agencies could push the dates that far only to be safe then all cases might not see approvals but it will help the PWMB's file for 485.

Teddy ,I rember in one of your post that If person has May end PD there is 50% chance.
Is your analysis changed to June now ? , let me know, if i am missing something.
I have PD of May last week 2007 , what is probability guru ?
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  #3092 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2011, 11:02 AM
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May-08
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Smile Projections...

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
My belief is that EB2 I may get 2-3K spillover more and settle between 01-JUN-2007 to 15-JUN-2007 while EB3 India will settle between 01-JUN-2002 (Current point) and 15-JUN-2002. For EB2-I some projections are projecting 7K, I feel the agencies could push the dates that far only to be safe then all cases might not see approvals but it will help the PWMB's file for 485.
Some are projecting that the agency may open EB2I until first half of 2008 or later so as to get an idea for demand data considering the fact that all the filing until July '07 is cleared. Not quite sure of the % of probability but glad atleast that it is a discussion point. Hope it happens....Fingers crossed!
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  #3093 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2011, 11:11 AM
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Dec-05
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EB3
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Only 9K visas needed in approved EB2 cases. What will happen to 10K remaining visas? Will it go waste or unused?
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  #3094 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2011, 11:12 AM
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Jul-07
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10/15/2007
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Quote:
Originally Posted by webr View Post
Teddy ,I rember in one of your post that If person has May end PD there is 50% chance.
Is your analysis changed to June now ? , let me know, if i am missing something.
I have PD of May last week 2007 , what is probability guru ?
Late May can be 75% sure for approval if your 485 is filed.
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  #3095 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2011, 11:18 AM
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Jul-07
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chikna View Post
Only 9K visas needed in approved EB2 cases. What will happen to 10K remaining visas? Will it go waste or unused?
Most likely ~ 3-4K visas are left. However if there is say 1K extra visas they will go to EB3 ROW. However based on last month’s movement there will be some more people filing 485 and some porting. So the chances of any kind of default spillover outside EB2 are remote.
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  #3096 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2011, 05:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
However if there is say 1K extra visas they will go to EB3 ROW.
I thought Fall down will go to people waiting with earliest PD. If so it should go to EB3-I
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  #3097 (permalink)  
Old 07-31-2011, 09:28 PM
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Jul-07
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rb_newsletter View Post
I thought Fall down will go to people waiting with earliest PD. If so it should go to EB3-I
Fall down goes first to the countries that have not hit the 7% limit, therefore in this kind of default it will go to EB3 ROW. It goes to the earliest PD only in the case the 7% limited countries i.e. ROW are current. This is why EB2 I/C get the fall down. However there is virtually no chance of fall down happening to EB3 this year as there are more than sufficient numbers of Preadjudicated cases.
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  #3098 (permalink)  
Old 08-01-2011, 04:08 PM
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Jul-07
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MYGC2008 View Post
Teddy / vdlrao

Hello I just received the RFE letter. it asking about the employer letter. However I have changed 2 jobs and the 2nd one is current

1st Employer --> Filed I-485
2nd Employer --> Worked for 1 year
3rd Employer --> Current

When we file the AC21 do we need to provide anything about the 2nd employer? OR the current one is sufficient

Thanks
Personally I do not know much about AC21 as I have not reached that stage yet. Based on what I have read over different immigration forums is
- Filing AC21 is not mandatory.
- If your second employer is cooperative enough or your employment letter their states that your job duties and responsibilities match it will be good. This will make your paperwork look more complete.
- As long as your current employer can help you provide the EVL and AC21 paperwork it should probably be sufficient. Hopefully you should get approval soon after your paperwork is received.
This is based on my very limited knowledge on the topic so best consult a good attorney.
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  #3099 (permalink)  
Old 08-01-2011, 05:19 PM
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Jan-04
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07/19/2007
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To what extent EB3-I will be benefited if country cap is removed?
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  #3100 (permalink)  
Old 08-01-2011, 05:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmpa View Post
To what extent EB3-I will be benefited if country cap is removed?
If country caps are removed EB3-I will get virtually the entire 40K allocation for EB3 in that year and may race to late 2004 or early 2005. The only other competitors will be EB3 Mexico and Philippines and only at later dates China.
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  #3101 (permalink)  
Old 08-01-2011, 05:32 PM
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EB2 I/C would be current in 2 years, then the entire spillover that EB2 is currently getting would go to EB3, mostly to India with older PD

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
If country caps are removed EB3-I will get virtually the entire 40K allocation for EB3 in that year and may race to late 2004 or early 2005. The only other competitors will be EB3 Mexico and Philippines and only at later dates China.
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  #3102 (permalink)  
Old 08-01-2011, 05:35 PM
Senior Member/Moderator
Priority Date
:
Jul-07
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EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PlainSpeakSucks View Post
EB2 I/C would be current in 2 years, then the entire spillover that EB2 is currently getting would go to EB3, mostly to India with older PD
Fall down goes first to the countries that have not hit the 7% limit, therefore in this kind of default it will go to EB3 ROW. It goes to the earliest PD only in the case the 7% limited countries i.e. ROW are current. This is why EB2 I/C get the fall down, so for EB3-I to get fall down EB3 ROW must be current.
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  #3103 (permalink)  
Old 08-01-2011, 05:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Fall down goes first to the countries that have not hit the 7% limit,
That sucks, but isn't that what removal of country limit is about, and people are approved only based on PD?
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  #3104 (permalink)  
Old 08-01-2011, 05:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PlainSpeakSucks View Post
That sucks, but isn't that what removal of country limit is about, and people are approved only based on PD?
You are right in probably 2 -3 years of abolition of country limits EB2 I will be truly current till date. The problem in the current system is that 7% rule overrides everything, so if Eb2 ROW were not current they would have been getting all of EB1 and EB5 spillover.
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  #3105 (permalink)  
Old 08-03-2011, 05:46 PM
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Nov-07
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Post PERM Real Data with Case Status: CERTIFIED, CERTIFIED-EXPIRED, DENIED, WITHDRAWN, etc

This link was posted by jsb user long time back on IV and it has detailed PERM information: FLCDataCenter.com

I think if someone wants to take specific perm applications for calculation like CERTIFIED, CERTIFIED-EXPIRED and not DENIED or WITHDRAWN can use this link FLCDataCenter.com.

It is interesting that you can find company names and sponsored people in this database. With job titles you can even guess who they are. I found mine(using my perm case number A-xxxxx-xxxxx), my job title being so specific.

The important thing I have notice is my perm was filed in Nov-2007 and it was listed under '2008MDB Text' not under '2007MDB Text'. I guess it may be listed in 2008 because my perm got approved in Jan-2008.
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