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  #3211 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2011, 05:12 PM
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Default Hmmm...

Quote:
Originally Posted by satishalluri View Post
Sep VB 2011 is out

EB2 is 15APR07
hmmm... what should I say? Really??? .... kidding!

At least, the chinese were correct in predicting the bulletin publish date, even though the EB2 date predicted for Sept VB was incorrect (but then no one guessed it right either)
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  #3212 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2011, 05:13 PM
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Default

When we saw big movements in the VB earlier in the FY, several of my friends with PDs ranging from April 2007 to Dec 2008 started waiting with bated breath hoping that they would be current this FY since DoS might do some big movement in the PD. I do not blame them since I had the same hope. However, the mistake is to become fixated on PD for the rest of the fiscal year without realizing that change in law (per-country limit removal, visa recapture etc) is the only true long-term solution. Now the rest of the FY is gone and this last PD is a wake-up call that we cannot rely on the DoS/USCIS to have mercy on us and move PDs rapidly. They are not going to do us any favors even if the math indicates so.
Bottomline is legislative efforts/advocacy is the solution..or else we will be tracking visa bulletins for a long time to come. To complement other efforts, we can follow the analysis by the experts on this thread which will keep us informed about the math behind visa numbers.

Last edited by forever_waiting; 08-09-2011 at 05:26 PM.
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  #3213 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2011, 05:13 PM
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Default Oct bulletin

Teddy and other experts:
I know its too early, but what do you guys think of next month(Oct) bulletin?
Teddy - why do you say the pipeline buildup will be postponed till May 2012. Sorry if my question was naive, as Im not at top of these issues, other than browsing this thread for past couple of hours
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  #3214 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2011, 05:39 PM
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Default Cutoff date for Aug/Sep Visa Bulletin

Anyone noticed that April 15 2007 was a Sunday. How and why would USCIS/DOS pick a Sunday as a cutoff date? to avoid any confusion? or are they confused themselves? or has this been a general trend by them to pick a weekend for cutoff-date?

Last edited by mzc123; 08-09-2011 at 05:46 PM.
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  #3215 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2011, 05:42 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_soon View Post
Teddy and other experts:
I know its too early, but what do you guys think of next month(Oct) bulletin?
Teddy - why do you say the pipeline buildup will be postponed till May 2012. Sorry if my question was naive, as Im not at top of these issues, other than browsing this thread for past couple of hours
I am thinking, its going to be another bulleting and someone will ask the same question...same waiting and same sh^*&^&t and different month.
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  #3216 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2011, 05:49 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by mzc123 View Post
Anyone noticed that April 15 2007 was a Sunday. How and why would USCIS/DOS pick a Sunday as a cutoff date? to avoid any confusion? or are they confused themselves? or has this been a general trend by them to pick a weekend for cutoff-date?
Cutoff dates are typically either the 1st, 8th, 15th or 22nd of the month. So, based on the available supply count, they will cutoff to the closest date of the month.
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  #3217 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2011, 06:16 PM
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Talking If 15th is Sunday, rest of the possible VB dates are also Sunday

Quote:
Originally Posted by mzc123 View Post
Anyone noticed that April 15 2007 was a Sunday. How and why would USCIS/DOS pick a Sunday as a cutoff date? to avoid any confusion? or are they confused themselves? or has this been a general trend by them to pick a weekend for cutoff-date?
They can only choose either dates as 1/8/15/22. If 15th falls on Sunday, then all the rest of these dates also falls on Sunday :-)
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  #3218 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2011, 08:36 PM
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Default

With September visa bulletin, we have lots of angry and frustrated people. It is best time to attract them for advocacy and donation.
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  #3219 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2011, 10:09 PM
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Default

Looks like creating a pipeline for EB2 I will be more of a political issue than a standard working procedure next fiscal year. USCIS can now somewhat control what files they want to clear. EB3 ROW is set up for a much larger spill over now. Maybe even EB3 I depending on how DOS interpret the spill over visa allocation by priority date.
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  #3220 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2011, 10:42 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by nj_03_2004 View Post
With September visa bulletin, we have lots of angry and frustrated people. It is best time to attract them for advocacy and donation.
I am curious. How does advocacy work apart from donatiion? Does it really help for all category or just EB2?
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  #3221 (permalink)  
Old 08-10-2011, 10:12 AM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by chikna View Post
I am curious. How does advocacy work apart from donatiion? Does it really help for all category or just EB2?
IV does not work for any one category. IV works for the whole community.
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  #3222 (permalink)  
Old 08-10-2011, 10:35 AM
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Default I think we need to fix the calendar as well

I think we should push for fixing these kinds of bugs in the Julian calendar. The other calendar (Gregorian) was so much better.
Quote:
Originally Posted by tarry4gc View Post
They can only choose either dates as 1/8/15/22. If 15th falls on Sunday, then all the rest of these dates also falls on Sunday :-)
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  #3223 (permalink)  
Old 08-10-2011, 11:29 AM
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Default Final Thought

Dates will start moving from March-2012, maximum it can go is Dec-07 or Jan-08. People like me will have to wait for 2013 to get an EAD.
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  #3224 (permalink)  
Old 08-10-2011, 12:39 PM
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Default Sounds right

Quote:
Originally Posted by MDix View Post
Dates will start moving from March-2012, maximum it can go is Dec-07 or Jan-08. People like me will have to wait for 2013 to get an EAD.
Thats about correct. The economy was booming until 2008 Sept. Expect a huge number of approved I140 during that time. The potential AOS filers from Aug 15 2007 to Dec 31st 2007 would easily consume the approximately 16K worth of spillover visas+2.8K = 19K visas.
With the better understanding of the kazarian memo the Eb1 backlog would be cleared and they would resume their normal processing.~30K demand/year.
That leaves Spillover of ~16K from various categories to EB2IC.
The EB2C demand is less compared to EB2I and they should move forward compared to EB2I in first 2 quarters.
The situation for EB2 IC is indeed very dire. Looks like an entire year's visas for EB2IC can only help reach Jan 2008 for EB2IC for FY2012.
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  #3225 (permalink)  
Old 08-10-2011, 01:17 PM
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Default Right

Same priority month/year as you are. Your thought sounds about correct. Except that if they want to build a pipeline we may be in luck by mid 2012. That is a big IF though!

Quote:
Originally Posted by MDix View Post
Dates will start moving from March-2012, maximum it can go is Dec-07 or Jan-08. People like me will have to wait for 2013 to get an EAD.
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