Immigration Voice - Forums
Register Get Involved Contact Lawmakers Advocacy Discussion Image Image Image Image

Go Back   Immigration Voice > Immigration Voice Issues and Congressional updates > All other Green Card Issues
Click to log in with Facebook
All other Green Card Issues I-140/I-485, Family Based Green Card

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Display Modes
  #4441 (permalink)  
Old 12-09-2011, 10:00 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
N/A
Category
:
N/A
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
N/A
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 77
helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Thanks Nag / Annemani!
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #4442 (permalink)  
Old 12-09-2011, 10:03 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Dec-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/01/2011
Compare
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 50
rxd9507IV has a reputation beyond repute rxd9507IV has a reputation beyond repute rxd9507IV has a reputation beyond repute rxd9507IV has a reputation beyond repute rxd9507IV has a reputation beyond repute rxd9507IV has a reputation beyond repute rxd9507IV has a reputation beyond repute rxd9507IV has a reputation beyond repute rxd9507IV has a reputation beyond repute rxd9507IV has a reputation beyond repute rxd9507IV has a reputation beyond repute
Default Keep focus on HR 3012

Great news for folks who became current but in the excitement do not lose focus away from HR 3012.

This movement is plain and simple pipeline builder for which any prediction would have been simply impossible. At the most this would help folks get EAD & AP, which are much better state than H1B/RFE driven road but is not where we want to be.

For records, I am EB2 (MS from US univ) and current in previous month.

We need to focus on HR 3012, that is the only solution to get GC.

1. Our EB3 folks are suffering. (One of my colleague, who is in US for 11 years, is sending his daughter to college and he is forced to pay international fee. It hurts to see this kind of injustice.

2. EB2 is still going to suffer for lack of GC numbers.

3. We are close to getting the bill that provides essential fairness. While I totally disagree with censorship on forums but this is not the time for internal fights.

4. Our future candidates need not suffer the way we are suffering.

5. IV is doing a decent job of fighting the system the way it needs to be fought.

As it stands, HR 3012 is the ONLY practical way to go.

Good luck to all.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


1 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
  #4443 (permalink)  
Old 12-09-2011, 10:05 PM
Junior Member
Priority Date
:
Category
:
N/A
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
Processing Stage
:
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 9
poonam333 is on a distinguished road
Default Thanks

Quote:
Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
Thats not correct. Once you have filed your 485, you CAN travel on your H1B/H4. Only problem is that if you get an RFI then you won't be around to act on it - although a good lawyer should take care of it for you.
It is recommended that once you apply for 485, when you enter the country, you enter on your AP rather than the visa stamp - however, if you are getting back before 90 days from your day of filing then you will not have EAD/AP by then - so you are good.
Thanks Snathan, lovenil & imdeng ...
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #4444 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 12:26 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jul-09
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 144
mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute
Default Demand Destruction & Visa Bulletin Movement

Guys,

First and foremost, I would like to say that we should all support HR 3012 -- its the right thing, its about fairness, and its the ONLY long term solution to the EB backlog. Regardless of whether one's priority dates is current or not, I would appreciate everyone to pitch in.

Because this thread is about EB2-EB3 predictions, I would like mention a couple of points regarding visa bulletin movement:

1) Visa bulletin specifically mentions that dates are being moved to avoid visa # wastage. If this is true, then clearly, this is not pipeline building. What this means is that CO is moving the dates so he can provide GCs to everyone who is current. There may be some pipeline building as a consequence, but that is clearly not the intent.

2) There is no reason why the CO should include language about visa bulletin movements in coming months. Why do they need to provide information to anyone? Would EB2 I/C not accept forward movement if they are given it? The fact that the CO is giving a reason for the forward movement tells me that demand is very low (as they also mention). This also tells me that most likely, the VB is going to continue to move forward.

3) The October 2011 Visa Bulletin date was April 2007. We are now 19 months ahead. Between April 2007 and March 2008, USCIS could have received a whole bunch of AOS applications, but it did not. This is a really significant development.

4) This tell me that a very large percentage of folks who had approved I-140s did not apply for AOS. Perhaps the bad economy, or something else has played a part.

5) Whatever the reason, there seems to be massive demand destruction. By demand destruction, I mean the scenario where someone has applied for a PERM and has not applied for a I-140 (letting the perm expire), or someone who has an approved I-140, but who has lost his job or returned back to India/China.

6) My thoughts are visa bulletin movement is directly related to demand destruction. I seems absolutely amazing that there is so much demand destruction, but not assuming so would mean that the VB language is false/ misrepresented.

7) There appears to be a very small percentage of people (5k ?) active with the various HR 3012 action items. This number seems incredibly small to me compared to the backlogs everyone has been book keeping (200k?). Demand destruction could explain the smaller than anticipated turnout here too.

That brings me to the following questions:

1) Assuming all our calculations are incorrect (and Pappu had mentioned this once in thread a few weeks back), what should one predict demand to be?

2) Using our current predictions (which said we should be closer to June 2008, not January 2009), and correcting for the current movement (lets assume CO knows what they're doing and don't need to retrogress dates, i.e. dates remain at January 2009 till of FY) -- what kind of demand destruction are we talking about?

3) Once we know demand destruction, we could perhaps extrapolate to see what kind of movement will happen in upcoming months.

4) Any predictions on how many months the next VB is going to move? I heard via the grape vine that dates may move by 8-10 months.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


1 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
  #4445 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 01:09 AM
Member
Priority Date
:
N/A
Category
:
N/A
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
N/A
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 77
helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute helpful_leo has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Mechanical123s thesis sounds interesting!

Since I have never been a big number cruncher, I wonder what experts like Teddy have to say about this. The loss of demand does seem staggering.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


1 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
  #4446 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 01:30 AM
Member
Priority Date
:
Category
:
N/A
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
Processing Stage
:
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2010
Posts: 41
iyer has a reputation beyond repute iyer has a reputation beyond repute iyer has a reputation beyond repute iyer has a reputation beyond repute iyer has a reputation beyond repute iyer has a reputation beyond repute iyer has a reputation beyond repute iyer has a reputation beyond repute iyer has a reputation beyond repute iyer has a reputation beyond repute iyer has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
After HR 3012 passes EB3-I will get a lion's share of visas from the EB3 allocation of 40K and will move fast till it catches up with EB3 ROW. EB2 even after HR 3012 passes will not become current anytime soon, EB2 ROW will see a priority date established as it will retrogress.
Logically if HR 3012 is passed, EB2 - I/C/ROW should be current for at least 1 bulletin, so that they could apply FIFO method accurately.

Last 2/3 months movement in EB2 I / C strongly indicates that many in this forum had analyzed PERM approval data wrongly. Also it indicates that many who got PERM approved, couldn't move forward with I-140 application or I-140 approval or couldn't hold on to their job. Even after this big forward movement, if CO is not finding many I-485 applications, he could make EB2 I/C current for the next month.

There is no law that stops him from moving the dates current and retrogress. The law only stops him from exceeding 140k visas in a year and 7% country limit (for now).
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #4447 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 07:24 AM
Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-10
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 42
arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute
Default

The 18 months move from July 2007 to Jan 1, 2009 wouldn't generate more than 6~7k worth of cases. If they really want to generate meaningful demand then they have to move dates at least till the end of December, 2010. Anything less is just waste of each month's time !!

All this monthly demand of 2500 cases is wrong. My strong view is that EB2 I would become current by next fiscal and wouldn't still have enough demand and then spillover would starting going to EB3.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


0 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
  #4448 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 08:22 AM
Member
Priority Date
:
Nov-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 71
injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute
Default 140 premium processing vs concurrent processing

**As this thread is most popular,, I am posting my question here****.
Hi Friends
I am in typical scenario... My priority date is November 2008 with old employer.. I have approved 140 also with old employer... With this approved 140 I moved to new employer on March 2011..
I filed brand new labor on March 2011 and it has been approved.. Now I filed one new 140 on October 2011 .. We entered A# in order to recapture old priority date.

Now my date is current i.e. November 2008.. Then what are the best options available for me

option1: convert my new i-140 to premium processing,, so that I will get result in next 15 calendar days-
option2: do concurrent processing on January if it is allowed [with old and new perm approvals, old 140 approval, pending new 140]

please help me by sharing your experiences on this matter

Thanks
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #4449 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 08:40 AM
Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-10
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 42
arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute
Default

The best advice would be to check with attorney. There is a good article that discusses similar scenario. You may want to check it out.

MurthyDotCom : Changes in Employer / Employment and Green Card Processing

Quote:
Originally Posted by injrav View Post
**As this thread is most popular,, I am posting my question here****.
Hi Friends
I am in typical scenario... My priority date is November 2008 with old employer.. I have approved 140 also with old employer... With this approved 140 I moved to new employer on March 2011..
I filed brand new labor on March 2011 and it has been approved.. Now I filed one new 140 on October 2011 .. We entered A# in order to recapture old priority date.

Now my date is current i.e. November 2008.. Then what are the best options available for me

option1: convert my new i-140 to premium processing,, so that I will get result in next 15 calendar days-
option2: do concurrent processing on January if it is allowed [with old and new perm approvals, old 140 approval, pending new 140]

please help me by sharing your experiences on this matter

Thanks
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #4450 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 08:53 AM
Member
Priority Date
:
Nov-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 71
injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute injrav has a reputation beyond repute
Default thanks for quick reply

thanks for quick reply
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


  #4451 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 09:46 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jul-09
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 144
mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute mechanical13 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arun_ramani View Post
The 18 months move from July 2007 to Jan 1, 2009 wouldn't generate more than 6~7k worth of cases. If they really want to generate meaningful demand then they have to move dates at least till the end of December, 2010. Anything less is just waste of each month's time !!

All this monthly demand of 2500 cases is wrong. My strong view is that EB2 I would become current by next fiscal and wouldn't still have enough demand and then spillover would starting going to EB3.
Arun_ramani - is this a gut feel, or have you done calculations to substantiate the 6-7k number. At first sight, this translates to ~400 per month, which is low.

If one superimposes the health of the economy on the 485 filings trend, then one arrives at something like this (not precise, just extrapolation) for both I &C combined.

July 2007 to March 2008 - 1250 per month

April 2008 to September 2008 - 900 per month

October 2008 to December 2009 - 500 per month

January 2009 to December 2010 ~400 per month.

What this totals up till December 2008: 11,250 +5,400 + 6000 = 22,650.

If CO wants to create pipeline and also allow for additional demand destruction during 485 processing, then he may be inclined to move dates to late 2009 in the next two VBs.

Just my own thoughts. May be wishful thinking, but I REALLY think we need to tie the demand to the economy. Assuming that Indians & Chinese were filing their GCs away to glory when the entire economy was crumbling around them seems absolutely crazy.

Imagine, if that were in fact the case....what a great bullet Sen. Grassley has to shoot down HR 3012.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


0 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
  #4452 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 10:20 AM
Junior Member
Priority Date
:
Category
:
N/A
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
Processing Stage
:
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 14
gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute
Default Thanks!

Folks, thank you all for making this thread public. My family has just begun the GC process and since we don't yet understand all the nuances, some of the posts here have been very helpful- we have at least begun asking the right questions now!

Some of you say there is a possibility that EB2 becomes current in a month or so. Is my understanding correct? If so, as someone who has a late PD, what should we do to prepare to apply for the 485? First of all, should we be prepared just in case?

Thanks!!
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


0 out of 3 members found this post helpful.
  #4453 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 10:27 AM
Junior Member
Priority Date
:
Category
:
N/A
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
Processing Stage
:
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 14
gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute gram123 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

I forgot to mention we are actively involved in all the action items for H.R 3012!
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


2 out of 3 members found this post helpful.
  #4454 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 10:45 AM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Jul-04
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
06/11/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/25/2007
Compare
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 287
immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute immigrant2007 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by arun_ramani View Post
The 18 months move from July 2007 to Jan 1, 2009 wouldn't generate more than 6~7k worth of cases. If they really want to generate meaningful demand then they have to move dates at least till the end of December, 2010. Anything less is just waste of each month's time !!

All this monthly demand of 2500 cases is wrong. My strong view is that EB2 I would become current by next fiscal and wouldn't still have enough demand and then spillover would starting going to EB3.
Makes sense, that demand would be enough to consume 40k EB2 numbers for 2012. With some spill over eb2 could see 2011 as well, I no expert but the perm numbers don't add up unless everything is EB2
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
  #4455 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 10:45 AM
Member
Priority Date
:
Mar-10
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
Compare
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 42
arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute arun_ramani has a reputation beyond repute
Default

6-7k number, I mentioned is only for India. The number is based on trends I see in the number of filings of 485 in tracking sites , % based on the conversion from PERM to 485 cases and considering the worst recession we went through in 2008.

In 2008/9 none of the consulting firms applied for H1 thereby affecting future demand, and in 2009 most of them didn't apply for labor certification as they were getting too many resumes to process. So the demand you would see till 2009 would only those would couldn't file by 2007 July and who have managed to stay here till this August (hats off to them!)

This is sort of complex analysis but would work, but if we make very simple assumptions then the numbers would be way of mark.

Quote:
Originally Posted by mechanical13 View Post
Arun_ramani - is this a gut feel, or have you done calculations to substantiate the 6-7k number. At first sight, this translates to ~400 per month, which is low.

If one superimposes the health of the economy on the 485 filings trend, then one arrives at something like this (not precise, just extrapolation) for both I &C combined.

July 2007 to March 2008 - 1250 per month

April 2008 to September 2008 - 900 per month

October 2008 to December 2009 - 500 per month

January 2009 to December 2010 ~400 per month.

What this totals up till December 2008: 11,250 +5,400 + 6000 = 22,650.

If CO wants to create pipeline and also allow for additional demand destruction during 485 processing, then he may be inclined to move dates to late 2009 in the next two VBs.

Just my own thoughts. May be wishful thinking, but I REALLY think we need to tie the demand to the economy. Assuming that Indians & Chinese were filing their GCs away to glory when the entire economy was crumbling around them seems absolutely crazy.

Imagine, if that were in fact the case....what a great bullet Sen. Grassley has to shoot down HR 3012.
Bookmark and Share Compare Reply With Quote


1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
Reply

Bookmarks


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 2 (0 members and 2 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are On



All times are GMT -4. The time now is 03:17 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.7.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
(c)ImmigrationVoice.org