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  #4456 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 09:54 AM
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Originally Posted by mechanical13 View Post
Arun_ramani - is this a gut feel, or have you done calculations to substantiate the 6-7k number. At first sight, this translates to ~400 per month, which is low.

If one superimposes the health of the economy on the 485 filings trend, then one arrives at something like this (not precise, just extrapolation) for both I &C combined.

July 2007 to March 2008 - 1250 per month

April 2008 to September 2008 - 900 per month

October 2008 to December 2009 - 500 per month

January 2009 to December 2010 ~400 per month.

What this totals up till December 2008: 11,250 +5,400 + 6000 = 22,650.

If CO wants to create pipeline and also allow for additional demand destruction during 485 processing, then he may be inclined to move dates to late 2009 in the next two VBs.

Just my own thoughts. May be wishful thinking, but I REALLY think we need to tie the demand to the economy. Assuming that Indians & Chinese were filing their GCs away to glory when the entire economy was crumbling around them seems absolutely crazy.

Imagine, if that were in fact the case....what a great bullet Sen. Grassley has to shoot down HR 3012.
Hi gurus shouldn't the numbers be based on perm approved for that year for 2008 onwards + any margin ? The numbers of perms from 2008 to 2012 are not that great ( unless me understanding of post perm I-140s is totally wrong, which includes direct I-140 plus multiplication factor) OR
It could be a conspiracy to diminish support for HR3012(by moving EB2 for few months could take away all eB2 in why to bother mode )
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  #4457 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 11:43 AM
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Few months ago, I made an analysis of PERM data approval and many in this forum shot down my analysis saying I should have also included 'Certified - Expired' into account. I still think 'certified - expired' should not be included and that is why many calculations have gone wrong.

I just finished reading the annual report on foreign labor certification (report about PERM certifications) for fiscal year 2009 and 2010. Per that report, PERM certification for Indians were: FY 2009 11387 and FY 2010 28930. For china: FY 2009 2,112 and FY 2010 4,052. The report indicates that FY 2010 certifications were more because they cleared majority of the backlogs. FY 2009 report indicates drop of 40% compared to FY 2008, and FY 2008 dropped by 40% as compared to FY 2007. This drop indicates US economic conditions.

The following are the items to be considered to filter the data for FY 2009 & FY 2010 - 40k in total certifications for India.

a) Priority date is determined based on the date when labor is filed and not when approved. This 40k approvals during those 2 years doesn't necessarily mean all priority dates fall within the same 2 year window. Especially, in FY 2010 report they have mentioned that certifications were higher because they cleared a lot of backlogs that were on hand at the beginning of that FY. Therefore, I assume of this 40k approvals, 20k must be having a priority date earlier than October 2008. That leaves us with a balance of 20k approvals. Applying the same logic, add another 5k for approvals in FY 2011, which could have a priority date between FY 2009 and FY 2010. This brings the balance to 25k.
b) Not all 25k approved certifications would have gone ahead with I-140 filings, due to bad economy. Assuming 10% dropout, the balance comes to 22.5k.
c) Not all 22.5k could have got I-140 approved. Assuming 10% dropout, the balance comes to 20k.
d) Assume another 10% dropout after I-140 approval stage due to bad economy. That brings the number to 18k.
e) Not all of this 18k would be eligible for EB2. Assuming a split ratio of 70/30 between EB2 and EB3, EB2 should be 13k and EB3 5k.
f) Adding dependent ratio of 2.2 for every applicant, EB2-I demand with priority dates between October 2008 and September 2010 should be 26k.

I am not considering any portability from EB3 to EB2 to affect the calculations. This is because majority of the guys who were eligible for porting from EB3 - EB2 would have done already. If someone had got approval under EB3 in the last 2 years, then it would be difficult for him to move to EB2 in such a short span of time. Similarly, not considering drop outs due to obtaining green card on the basis of other factors such as marriage to citizen, or potential duplicates because of working couples both filing, etc.
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  #4458 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 11:44 AM
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Default Agreed

Totally Agreed

HR 3012 is the ONLY hope for EB3

And it will pass before CHRISTMAS

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  #4459 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by iyer View Post
Few months ago,....
Excellent approach and rationale.

A few points:

1) If you apply the same approach to FY 2007 and FY 2008, what numbers do we get? It appears like you have already done this analysis ( you mention 40 % reduction in volume), so it will be good to see what these numbers look like and how they tally with current movement.

2) We know for certain that I485 demand until July 2007 was in the 1500/month range, so between April 2007 and July 2007, we'll still have high numbers. There may be high attrition afterwards, so adjustments make sense.

3) What are you predictions for the next VB? Do you anticipate additional movement?

4) I think the PERM filings picked up significantly in 2010 and also in 2011. Perhaps all those who were unable to file in 2008 and 2009 ended up filing in 2010/2011.

5) Those working for consulting companies may be able to add additional perspective, but another factor that may have played out is what happened in 2007 -- everyone got EADs, and were no longer tied to desi consulting companies. This may have disincentivized many consulting companies from filing PERM /I-140 for their employees (to keep with the company longer). The bad economy/layoffs may have also played out.

6) The big question on everyone's mind I guess is whether dates will retrogress, or move ahead at the next VISA bulletin. It appears unlikely that the CO will make VB current ( 2010/2011 is very heavy I think), but there appears to be a likelihood that dates will move to late 2009.
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  #4460 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 01:00 PM
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Default

My earlier post

Oct 2011 I-485 inventory
EB1 - 14,072
EB2 ROW - 10,164
Total= 24,236

EB-1 & EB-2 & Spill over from EB-5 & 4 == 86 K Visas


As Per Oct'2011 Inventory Last 4 months EB1 average is 1300 cases for month
Highest no.of Eb2 Row cases is in Feb'2011 around 1000 cases
If we assume above as the expected volume to be filed in next 8 months
2300 * 8 = 18,400

so 86K - 18.5K - 24.5K = 43K

By above EB2 India & China may Get 43K Quota this year.

As per Inventory Before Aug'2007 Pending cases for India & China is 4,136 +8,865= ~13K. So USCIS need around 30K Application.

expecting EB2 India & China Demand per 2500for 2008 & 2009 is very high . Past Inventory for 2006 & 2007 shows few months have close /above or average of this rate.

For 2008 & 2009 India & china PERM approval are 30%-40% lower.
and earlier there is no porting at least 10% cases are porting so I-1485 Demand for 2008 & 2009 may be 40-50% lower compare to 2006 & 2007

Based on this guess estimate probably 1500 per month so 2008 & 2009 cases will be 24 months *1500= 36K.
Atleast another 12K Expected for 2007(Aug'07-Dec'07) ==> here 2006 & 2007 rate may continue.

48K expected filing before Jan'2010.

30K need to FY2012 Quota (Till Sept'2012)
10K need for 1Q of 2012 Quota (Oct'12 to Dec'12)
expect 10K pending cases always in the system.

Moving till Jan 1st 2010 may be realistic during 2012 Year.
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  #4461 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 01:21 PM
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Default Congrats!

My sincere congratulations to all EB2 folks. PD are moving so fast even without HR 3012.
As far as EB3, i dont think there will be any significant changes in PD movement. Looking at the calculations posted here, we are down from 'unknown' number of years it was going to take to get GC to may be 10-15 years which is definitely an improvement!
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  #4462 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 02:12 PM
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Cool

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Originally Posted by immigrant2007 View Post
Hi gurus shouldn't the numbers be based on perm approved for that year for 2008 onwards + any margin ? The numbers of perms from 2008 to 2012 are not that great ( unless me understanding of post perm I-140s is totally wrong, which includes direct I-140 plus multiplication factor) OR
It could be a conspiracy to diminish support for HR3012(by moving EB2 for few months could take away all eB2 in why to bother mode )
Yes, but there is an underlying assumption in doing so: We assume that all PERMs survive through the I-140 process. If we take the VB language literally, then CO is not creating pipeline - USCIS needs applications to avoid Visa # wastage. This would mean that 485 applications are significantly less than PERM filings.

A number of factors may reduce final 485 yield:

1) PERMS approved in 2008/2009 may actually have been applied in 2007/2008. This means that the a majority of these folks have already applied.

2) Job loss would have forced many to return to India/China or change jobs.

3) Due to layoffs within the company, employer may have not gone forward with I-140 application after PERM approval. Law states that I-140 cannot be applied for when the company has experienced layoffs in which American workers have been let go. The PERM window is 6 months, and the wait time between when a company has a layoff and can file for an I-140 for an alien beneficiary is 6 months.

4) Desi consulting companies would not want to process GC due to high attrition after 2007 fiasco.

5) Audits and more difficult I-140 approval process.

Please note that we are unknown territory here. In the absence of inventory data, everything is conjuncture.

We may be predicting movement till January 2010...and the CO may surprise us by retrogressing dates to 2007.
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  #4463 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 02:17 PM
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Originally Posted by immigrant2007 View Post
It could be a conspiracy to diminish support for HR3012(by moving EB2 for few months could take away all eB2 in why to bother mode )
There is no conspiracy my friend. The CO has bigger fish to fry than to play games with EB folks. The immigration system is broken....but I do not believe it is crooked.
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  #4464 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 03:31 PM
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Originally Posted by mechanical13 View Post
There is no conspiracy my friend. The CO has bigger fish to fry than to play games with EB folks. The immigration system is broken....but I do not believe it is crooked.
Can't believe you took that comment seriously, but I like your comment "....is broken but not crooked"........
BTW one of the things I am intersted in is the how good and genuine are the numbers in disclosure data....The number of certified cases between 2008 and 2011 are not that much for all categories combined. Wondering how long EB2 forward movement trend is going to extend (is it becoming current this year?)....atleast that way EB3 can start seeing some spill overs....Not getting a satisfactory reply on that
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  #4465 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 03:43 PM
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Originally Posted by iyer View Post
Few months ago, I made an analysis of PERM data approval and many in this forum shot down my analysis saying I should have also included 'Certified - Expired' into account. I still think 'certified - expired' should not be included and that is why many calculations have gone wrong.

I just finished reading the annual report on foreign labor certification (report about PERM certifications) for fiscal year 2009 and 2010. Per that report, PERM certification for Indians were: FY 2009 11387 and FY 2010 28930. For china: FY 2009 2,112 and FY 2010 4,052. The report indicates that FY 2010 certifications were more because they cleared majority of the backlogs. FY 2009 report indicates drop of 40% compared to FY 2008, and FY 2008 dropped by 40% as compared to FY 2007. This drop indicates US economic conditions.

The following are the items to be considered to filter the data for FY 2009 & FY 2010 - 40k in total certifications for India.

a) Priority date is determined based on the date when labor is filed and not when approved. This 40k approvals during those 2 years doesn't necessarily mean all priority dates fall within the same 2 year window. Especially, in FY 2010 report they have mentioned that certifications were higher because they cleared a lot of backlogs that were on hand at the beginning of that FY. Therefore, I assume of this 40k approvals, 20k must be having a priority date earlier than October 2008. That leaves us with a balance of 20k approvals. Applying the same logic, add another 5k for approvals in FY 2011, which could have a priority date between FY 2009 and FY 2010. This brings the balance to 25k.
b) Not all 25k approved certifications would have gone ahead with I-140 filings, due to bad economy. Assuming 10% dropout, the balance comes to 22.5k.
c) Not all 22.5k could have got I-140 approved. Assuming 10% dropout, the balance comes to 20k.
d) Assume another 10% dropout after I-140 approval stage due to bad economy. That brings the number to 18k.
e) Not all of this 18k would be eligible for EB2. Assuming a split ratio of 70/30 between EB2 and EB3, EB2 should be 13k and EB3 5k.
f) Adding dependent ratio of 2.2 for every applicant, EB2-I demand with priority dates between October 2008 and September 2010 should be 26k.

I am not considering any portability from EB3 to EB2 to affect the calculations. This is because majority of the guys who were eligible for porting from EB3 - EB2 would have done already. If someone had got approval under EB3 in the last 2 years, then it would be difficult for him to move to EB2 in such a short span of time. Similarly, not considering drop outs due to obtaining green card on the basis of other factors such as marriage to citizen, or potential duplicates because of working couples both filing, etc.
What you have posted makes sense.....unless the number gurus come up with some points we are missing. Will try and think about your numbers calculation once get time towards evening or later in the day. One thing I would like to mention about port from EB3-EBs is that , it will still be a new PERM in majority of cases (as direct conversion is no childs play and would come in PERM number or the demand data due to old priority date).
But the calculation of gurus had been correct for long time they might get to the bottom of this sonner or later, can't ignore thier viewpoint.
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  #4466 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 03:50 PM
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The Bill H.R 3012 helps EB2 and more than that it will help EB3. This big movement in visal bullein for EB2 means you need to be ready that Visa Bulletin will not move for 2 more years until they clear all inventory. Remember after July 2007? How slow it moved? This will repeat. So any one after Jan 2009 should be worried abt it and participate in action items more rigorously. So come out of your dreams and work towards H.R 3012 even if you are EB2 after Jan 2009. Now they will have minimum of 50K applications which takes at least 2 years for them to forward visa bulletin. So from next bulletin expect retrogression and stalled movement for EB2 also.
__________________
HR3012 - advocacy participant

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  #4467 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 03:50 PM
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Originally Posted by immigrant2007 View Post
What you have posted makes sense.....unless the number gurus come up with some points we are missing. Will try and think about your numbers calculation once get time towards evening or later in the day. One thing I would like to mention about port from EB3-EBs is that , it will still be a new PERM in majority of cases (as direct conversion is no childs play and would come in PERM number or the demand data due to old priority date).
But the calculation of gurus had been correct for long time they might get to the bottom of this sonner or later, can't ignore thier viewpoint.
Going by Numbers if they approve 40000 EB2 GCs every year they should be approving approximately 10000 EB2 GCs every quarter (if demand exists) therwise they might create a demand of 20000-30000 cases and retrogess later on. Anyway the demand data of Feb MArch will give us a clear picture
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  #4468 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 05:48 PM
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Following is the current situation after the release of the Jan Bulletin
EB2 I/C date being at 01-JAN-2009 represents the 40 mark. Here is how 8.5K SOFAD was already consumed and assuming a density of 2 (Highly optimistic) -2.5 (Last Assumption) K per month porting inclusive (@3K Per annum, spread as 250PM & included in the perm figures) it becomes an additional 28 – 35K so essentially 36.5 to 43.5K level; this can be averaged to 40K. We will know the exact numbers only after the Jan 2012 inventory is published. Porting of 3K is only for individuals whose PD is before Jul 2007. I still believe that the 2K per month (Porting Inclusive) a drop of 500 per month is possibly the best case scenario possible.
The 2500 per month figure assuming a perm to 485 rollover ratio of 1 kind of implicitly assumed 38% demand destruction which itself is not small by any means. This is calculated as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62, here 2.125 is the dependent factor and .75 is the EB2 – EB3 ratio. The .75 ratio for EB2 – EB3 takes into account upgrades for individuals who missed the Jul 2007 grand event of dates being current.
The movement especially this month is way beyond expectations in the sense that the prediction benchmark has always been movement equivalent to a year’s SOFAD, most likely the intent is to have a large buffer which would far exceed the SOFAD that would come by in FY 2012, to force the same kind of intake once again in the coming year the SOFAD should come very close to wiping out the intake, this appears to be quite difficult as of now.
For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month, this may well be the last boat in the current intake. The VB language does keep the door open for intakes, however this is beyond the domain of calculated predictions it is something totally in the domain of discretion of the agencies. Having said that the dates may still move further but it is something that cannot be calculated as none of us can logically deduce the targeted intake that the agencies have set to accomplish.
The current bulletin may have been influenced atleast in part with the possibility of HR 3012 being passed, this bill has a full 1 year’s time to pass the senate, since it is currently not the law the agencies are not supposed to take it into account, however if it becomes the law even in a few months time with the current level of intake there may be enough number of EB2 I/C cases to approve, in fact every one even current by even the current VB will come close to be greened quite literally. The agencies are ideally supposed to approve EB2 ROW and EB1 cases as soon as they are pre-adjudicated so in theory if the law passes later on in the year EB2 ROW would have used more than 15% of the 40K allocation. HR 3012 if passed can drastically change the game it kind of gives EB2 I/C ~ 20K guaranteed additional SOFAD.
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  #4469 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 06:02 PM
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Default Teddy - Quick Question

Hi Teddy,
In the previous post you mentioned "For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month". This might be basic question, but are you saying since the Bulletin is for Jan 2012, even if all the paper works are ready we can apply only next month, i.e. you can't apply in December you have to wait until Jan 2012? if yes, if they retrogress the dates around 9th or 10th of Jan (i.e for Feb bulletin), do we have 10 days to apply or the whole month to apply? Thanks in advance & thanks for all your prediction.

Cheers,
RK
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  #4470 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 06:44 PM
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got the receipts for AOS filed on Nov3rd, recieved on Nov4th.
says expect biometrics soon.
they mailed it to my home address in addition to lawyer.


Got my FP Notice(NSC):
Notice date :12/2/2011
appointment date: 12/29/2011
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