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  #4471 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 06:52 PM
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Originally Posted by immigrant2007 View Post
Going by Numbers if they approve 40000 EB2 GCs every year they should be approving approximately 10000 EB2 GCs every quarter (if demand exists) therwise they might create a demand of 20000-30000 cases and retrogess later on. Anyway the demand data of Feb MArch will give us a clear picture
Does anyone know why the Demand data for January has not been released?

Does the State Department skip publishing demand data once in a while ?
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  #4472 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 06:54 PM
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Originally Posted by manchala View Post
The Bill H.R 3012 helps EB2 and more than that it will help EB3. This big movement in visal bullein for EB2 means you need to be ready that Visa Bulletin will not move for 2 more years until they clear all inventory. Remember after July 2007? How slow it moved? This will repeat. So any one after Jan 2009 should be worried abt it and participate in action items more rigorously. So come out of your dreams and work towards H.R 3012 even if you are EB2 after Jan 2009. Now they will have minimum of 50K applications which takes at least 2 years for them to forward visa bulletin. So from next bulletin expect retrogression and stalled movement for EB2 also.
Completely Agree. I am diligently doing all the action items.

Even created a flyer a few days back.
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  #4473 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 07:22 PM
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sunilps03 is infamous around these parts sunilps03 is infamous around these parts sunilps03 is infamous around these parts sunilps03 is infamous around these parts sunilps03 is infamous around these parts sunilps03 is infamous around these parts sunilps03 is infamous around these parts sunilps03 is infamous around these parts sunilps03 is infamous around these parts
Default Question regarding receipt number

I received my receipts today (6 in total) but when I enter receipt number in https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/portfolioCustomerAdd.do this site, it says the number is invalid. I tried all 6 numbers. My receipt numbers start with LIN***. It's filed in Nebraska Service Center.

Has any one faced this issue? Do we need to wait for more days to see the case status online?

I used to track I140 via above website. Is there different website to track 485 ? Let me know.

RD:12/1
ND : 12/6
Recived via snail mail : 12/10.
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  #4474 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 08:34 PM
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Originally Posted by rkgc View Post
Hi Teddy,
In the previous post you mentioned "For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month". This might be basic question, but are you saying since the Bulletin is for Jan 2012, even if all the paper works are ready we can apply only next month, i.e. you can't apply in December you have to wait until Jan 2012? if yes, if they retrogress the dates around 9th or 10th of Jan (i.e for Feb bulletin), do we have 10 days to apply or the whole month to apply? Thanks in advance & thanks for all your prediction.

Cheers,
RK
Visa bulletin is for next month.

Jan bulletin applies from Jan1. In your hypothetical case of Feb bulletin (published on Jan second week) retrogress you can still apply till Jan end.

Having said that, Apply ASAP, hopefully on first date itself.
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  #4475 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 08:48 PM
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Default Another December I485 filer statistic

Got my I485/I131 and I765 receipt notices in USPS mail today (12/10).

Receipt date: 12/02/2011
Notice date: 12/06/2011
Texas Service Center
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  #4476 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 09:24 PM
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Thanks rxd9507IV!!
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  #4477 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 09:45 PM
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Hi rxd9507IV,
Sooner the better makes sense, but any reason you said first day itself? please give me some reasons, so I can nudge the lawyer and give the same reason.

Thanks,
Rami
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  #4478 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 09:45 PM
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Originally Posted by Murthy View Post
While 100% supporting for HR 3012,These Spill over rules must be changed.
All spill over unused visas from EB1 or EB5 should go over to general pool and go to FIRST come First basis in EB categories so that EB3 also moves forward like EB2 now.
Hope many EB3 folks agree with me.
Yes, your logic makes sense...but the GC is designed to help the country and not to benefit the individual. From the US govt., Lawmakers and USCIS point of view the EB2 is superior to EB3 and benefits the country most.

But thing are not always straight forward and we all know the ground reality is different. So it’s going to be a herculean task if you try to change the spillover rule and needs a new legislation. So the only hope is H.R.3012.
__________________
When you come across any immigration Frauds
# Contact the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ice.gov) by telephone at (866) DHS-2-ICE. The hotline is designed specifically to accept immigration violation reports. You can complain anonymously.

Fraud Detection and National Security (FDNS) Directorate
111 Massachusetts Ave., NW Suite 7002,
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FDNS@dhs.gov
filing without current PD
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  #4479 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 11:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Murthy View Post
While 100% supporting for HR 3012,These Spill over rules must be changed.
All spill over unused visas from EB1 or EB5 should go over to general pool and go to FIRST come First basis in EB categories so that EB3 also moves forward like EB2 now.
Hope many EB3 folks agree with me.
You are talking in the language, the ROWers are talking now for HR3012 .. I am EB3 but wouldnt oppose spill-over rule, just because EB-I is getting benefited first. Rather, I would work on HR3012 and get support from EB-2 friends .. ROWers, EB2-I and EB3-I -- we all are in same boat, if we know -- i.e. we all are immigrants ... If we cannot stick together, if we fight for rules helping others just bcoz we cannot see their progress compared to us - would lead all of us nowhere .. And, people like Grassley would win by Divide and Rule ..

Wish HR3012 would pass ..
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  #4480 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 11:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mechanical13 View Post
Yes, but there is an underlying assumption in doing so: We assume that all PERMs survive through the I-140 process. If we take the VB language literally, then CO is not creating pipeline - USCIS needs applications to avoid Visa # wastage. This would mean that 485 applications are significantly less than PERM filings.

A number of factors may reduce final 485 yield:

1) PERMS approved in 2008/2009 may actually have been applied in 2007/2008. This means that the a majority of these folks have already applied.

2) Job loss would have forced many to return to India/China or change jobs.

3) Due to layoffs within the company, employer may have not gone forward with I-140 application after PERM approval. Law states that I-140 cannot be applied for when the company has experienced layoffs in which American workers have been let go. The PERM window is 6 months, and the wait time between when a company has a layoff and can file for an I-140 for an alien beneficiary is 6 months.

4) Desi consulting companies would not want to process GC due to high attrition after 2007 fiasco.

5) Audits and more difficult I-140 approval process.

Please note that we are unknown territory here. In the absence of inventory data, everything is conjuncture.

We may be predicting movement till January 2010...and the CO may surprise us by retrogressing dates to 2007.
Very very true .. all points make sense ..

It is an ambigious process .. When USCIS came out with Inventory data ... it meant to do so, to guide people in predicting GC movement .. I think, it did nothing much of the help .. Uncertainty still continues ..
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  #4481 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 11:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Following is the current situation after the release of the Jan Bulletin
EB2 I/C date being at 01-JAN-2009 represents the 40 mark. Here is how 8.5K SOFAD was already consumed and assuming a density of 2 (Highly optimistic) -2.5 (Last Assumption) K per month porting inclusive (@3K Per annum, spread as 250PM & included in the perm figures) it becomes an additional 28 – 35K so essentially 36.5 to 43.5K level; this can be averaged to 40K. We will know the exact numbers only after the Jan 2012 inventory is published. Porting of 3K is only for individuals whose PD is before Jul 2007. I still believe that the 2K per month (Porting Inclusive) a drop of 500 per month is possibly the best case scenario possible.
The 2500 per month figure assuming a perm to 485 rollover ratio of 1 kind of implicitly assumed 38% demand destruction which itself is not small by any means. This is calculated as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62, here 2.125 is the dependent factor and .75 is the EB2 – EB3 ratio. The .75 ratio for EB2 – EB3 takes into account upgrades for individuals who missed the Jul 2007 grand event of dates being current.
The movement especially this month is way beyond expectations in the sense that the prediction benchmark has always been movement equivalent to a year’s SOFAD, most likely the intent is to have a large buffer which would far exceed the SOFAD that would come by in FY 2012, to force the same kind of intake once again in the coming year the SOFAD should come very close to wiping out the intake, this appears to be quite difficult as of now.
For all the friends who became current this month make all efforts to have your cases filed next month, this may well be the last boat in the current intake. The VB language does keep the door open for intakes, however this is beyond the domain of calculated predictions it is something totally in the domain of discretion of the agencies. Having said that the dates may still move further but it is something that cannot be calculated as none of us can logically deduce the targeted intake that the agencies have set to accomplish.
The current bulletin may have been influenced atleast in part with the possibility of HR 3012 being passed, this bill has a full 1 year’s time to pass the senate, since it is currently not the law the agencies are not supposed to take it into account, however if it becomes the law even in a few months time with the current level of intake there may be enough number of EB2 I/C cases to approve, in fact every one even current by even the current VB will come close to be greened quite literally. The agencies are ideally supposed to approve EB2 ROW and EB1 cases as soon as they are pre-adjudicated so in theory if the law passes later on in the year EB2 ROW would have used more than 15% of the 40K allocation. HR 3012 if passed can drastically change the game it kind of gives EB2 I/C ~ 20K guaranteed additional SOFAD.
Makes sense Teddy ... USCIS also mentions that it takes few months to give the visa no -from the actual date of filing 485 .. so They might be anticipating that if HR3012 passes after 2 months or so, and if they try to move forward after that .. there might less application than the visa no available for the year .. so some visa no might go waste .. So, they might be planning to move forward, in advance .. Not sure, if that would be a consideration, though .. just throwing from my positive mind ..
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  #4482 (permalink)  
Old 12-10-2011, 11:57 PM
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Default

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Originally Posted by rkgc View Post
Hi rxd9507IV,
Sooner the better makes sense, but any reason you said first day itself? please give me some reasons, so I can nudge the lawyer and give the same reason.

Thanks,
Rami
No specific reason other than this " there is no downside of applying on first but there might be some upside."
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  #4483 (permalink)  
Old 12-11-2011, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Pappu_Pager View Post
Very very true .. all points make sense ..

It is an ambigious process .. When USCIS came out with Inventory data ... it meant to do so, to guide people in predicting GC movement .. I think, it did nothing much of the help .. Uncertainty still continues ..
Quote:
Originally Posted by mechanical13 View Post
Does anyone know why the Demand data for January has not been released?

Does the State Department skip publishing demand data once in a while ?
Our wish list
1) GCs for all in 1 year
2) HR 3012 earliest this month or next month
3) Demand Data and Pending Inventory
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  #4484 (permalink)  
Old 12-11-2011, 03:01 PM
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Default Please Refreain from bashing each other !

Guys,

For the greater interest of the community. Please refrain from bashing each other. like EB2, EB3, ROW etc.

IV is working for ALL. There is lots of visibility for this website and forum over the internet. silly personal arguments will be making us look BAD. and that's what many special interest groups are trying to portray us. so please refrain from bashing each other in the greater interest of the community.
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  #4485 (permalink)  
Old 12-11-2011, 03:06 PM
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Originally Posted by bpratap View Post
Guys,

For the greater interest of the community. Please refrain from bashing each other. like EB2, EB3, ROW etc.

IV is working for ALL. There is lots of visibility for this website and forum over the internet. silly personal arguments will be making us look BAD. and that's what many special interest groups are trying to portray us. so please refrain from bashing each other in the greater interest of the community.
100 % agree with you.

Differences between ROW and EB I/C has already fractured the community. IV is not working for any particular group. IV is working for the entire EB community.

With HR 3012, IV is trying to level the playing field within the EB community so we can all group together and solve the bigger issues at hand.

Guys - Lets all come together and work together to support HR 3012. In the long run, it the best and most permanent solution for the perennial backlog.
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