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  #4651 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 01:48 PM
Junior Member
Priority Date
:
Dec-04
Category
:
EB3
I140 Mailed Date
:
11/06/2006
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India
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I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
08/02/2007
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Default EB3-EB2 porting not able to decide

My PD is Dec 2004 in EB3 category. Based on what I am hearing about this new bill my wait time may be reduced. I just received an approval from my company to start EB2 process but it will cost me 6k. I am not able to decide whether to wait for this bill to pass or start with the new GC process. I did change my employer through AC21 and my salary has significantly changed than what was stated in my labor. Please advise.
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  #4652 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 01:58 PM
Senior Member/Moderator
Priority Date
:
Jul-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
10/15/2007
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India
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I-485
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:
11/01/2011
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Default

- The current consumption is 10; this is based on the facts that the a) October demand data showed 8.5K b) inventory shows 14K c)All preadjudicated cases from Jul 2007 barring a few exceptions are approved now. The demand data came down to 0 in December, 10K is a centrist figure between the inventory and demand data.
-We expect that 2-2.5K PWMB cases that have PD's between 15th Apr and 15th Jun would have been filed in Oct 2007.
Followiing is a PWMB calculation for Oct Filers.
Jul (Assuming 50%) = (1747 + 2007 - 1000 (Exclude NIW)) * 50 / 100 = 1377
Assume 50% filed in Oct and 50% in Nov for Jul PD cases.

Jul = 688
Jun = (1296 + 288) * (50/100) = 792
May = (1043 + 546) * (30/100) = 475

This comes very close to 2000.

- This makes the demand + consumption pre Jul 15th 2007 = 12K. So to achieve 25K another 13K of intake is required, starting from Nov 2007.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in the EB3 inventory shows even less, however we must offset for local office cases that were added midyear. The inventory approach only helps to measure porting for preadjudicated cases only, post Jul 2007 the EB2 EB3 ratio is 75-25 this accounts for porting for non preadjudicated cases. Most people post Jul 2007 did not have the benefit of EAD/AP and they have converted to EB2 already or are in the process. The ratio of 75-25 already accounts for this.
- For EB2 the dependent ratio is 2.125 this is under the assumption that people will be quite rarely single and 1 in 8 families are highly likely to have atleast 1 non-us born kid.
-The perm computations suggest that there may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's per month. Past history suggests a very good correlation between the number of I+C perms and I485s with the correlation coefficient being 1. Now if we distribute porting evenly over the year we can approximate the density to 2500 per month. This works very well to the duration of Jul 2007 to Jul 2008. CP is quite small for EB2 I/C this may just add as a buffer to make the 2500 per month flat figure look centrist neither too liberal and nor too conservative.
Many people believe that there was demand destruction due to the bad market situation the ratio of 1 account for 38% demand destruction implicitly as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62. Most conservative calculations would only assume 20% demand destruction for all reasons.

-With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has been 16 - 20K till Mar 15th 2007. This makes the total 29-33K.

There was 8.5 month advancement this may yield another minimum 16K. This will make the range at a minimum of 45K. Even if there is demand destruction the figure should range between 38-40K which is sufficient if HR 3012 passes right away.
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  #4653 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 01:58 PM
Member
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Apr-09
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ctm1234 is infamous around these parts ctm1234 is infamous around these parts ctm1234 is infamous around these parts ctm1234 is infamous around these parts ctm1234 is infamous around these parts ctm1234 is infamous around these parts ctm1234 is infamous around these parts ctm1234 is infamous around these parts ctm1234 is infamous around these parts ctm1234 is infamous around these parts ctm1234 is infamous around these parts
Default Hr 3012

Quote:
Originally Posted by amitsri_74 View Post
My PD is Dec 2004 in EB3 category. Based on what I am hearing about this new bill my wait time may be reduced. I just received an approval from my company to start EB2 process but it will cost me 6k. I am not able to decide whether to wait for this bill to pass or start with the new GC process. I did change my employer through AC21 and my salary has significantly changed than what was stated in my labor. Please advise.
If you can wait until end of Feb 2012 and then proceed.
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  #4654 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 02:01 PM
Senior Member/Moderator
Priority Date
:
Jul-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
10/15/2007
Chargeability
:
India
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:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
11/01/2011
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by dexter View Post
Teddy,
Do you think the upcoming visa bulletin will move EB2 India dates forward?
Thanks,
Dex
The current intake is already equivalent to 40K SOFAD, which is sufficient even in case HR 3012 passes right away. So movement really based on what kind of inventory CO might like to create. We may see movement or we may see retrogression I think all possibilities are open for the next 2 VB's because everything is based entirely on discretion.
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  #4655 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 02:03 PM
Senior Member/Moderator
Priority Date
:
Jul-07
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:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
10/15/2007
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:
India
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:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
11/01/2011
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 1,512
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by amitsri_74 View Post
My PD is Dec 2004 in EB3 category. Based on what I am hearing about this new bill my wait time may be reduced. I just received an approval from my company to start EB2 process but it will cost me 6k. I am not able to decide whether to wait for this bill to pass or start with the new GC process. I did change my employer through AC21 and my salary has significantly changed than what was stated in my labor. Please advise.
Even if HR 3012 passes right away your PD is a little bit on the fringe for the full year range. So I would say go ahead and port if you have a chance you have nothing to lose except for money.
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  #4656 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 02:20 PM
Donor
Priority Date
:
Aug-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/30/2011
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,765
thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by amitsri_74 View Post
My PD is Dec 2004 in EB3 category. Based on what I am hearing about this new bill my wait time may be reduced. I just received an approval from my company to start EB2 process but it will cost me 6k. I am not able to decide whether to wait for this bill to pass or start with the new GC process. I did change my employer through AC21 and my salary has significantly changed than what was stated in my labor. Please advise.
If you port you will have the GC in about 5-6 months "if there are no complications "(max). If not porting and with 3012 becoming law, your dates will become current but still it might take a year to get greened.
There is absolutely no excuse that 3012 is not passed. Lets all be ready for the next wave of action items planned by IV and meanwhile continue communicating the action items to our friends.
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  #4657 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 02:24 PM
Member
Priority Date
:
Dec-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
05/15/2008
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-140
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/05/2011
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 27
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Default what are the prediction for EB2 without HR3012

Teddy,

Which dates are safe to get green card by Fiscal year 2012 end without HR 3012?



Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
- The current consumption is 10; this is based on the facts that the a) October demand data showed 8.5K b) inventory shows 14K c)All preadjudicated cases from Jul 2007 barring a few exceptions are approved now. The demand data came down to 0 in December, 10K is a centrist figure between the inventory and demand data.
-We expect that 2-2.5K PWMB cases that have PD's between 15th Apr and 15th Jun would have been filed in Oct 2007.
Followiing is a PWMB calculation for Oct Filers.
Jul (Assuming 50%) = (1747 + 2007 - 1000 (Exclude NIW)) * 50 / 100 = 1377
Assume 50% filed in Oct and 50% in Nov for Jul PD cases.

Jul = 688
Jun = (1296 + 288) * (50/100) = 792
May = (1043 + 546) * (30/100) = 475

This comes very close to 2000.

- This makes the demand + consumption pre Jul 15th 2007 = 12K. So to achieve 25K another 13K of intake is required, starting from Nov 2007.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in the EB3 inventory shows even less, however we must offset for local office cases that were added midyear. The inventory approach only helps to measure porting for preadjudicated cases only, post Jul 2007 the EB2 EB3 ratio is 75-25 this accounts for porting for non preadjudicated cases. Most people post Jul 2007 did not have the benefit of EAD/AP and they have converted to EB2 already or are in the process. The ratio of 75-25 already accounts for this.
- For EB2 the dependent ratio is 2.125 this is under the assumption that people will be quite rarely single and 1 in 8 families are highly likely to have atleast 1 non-us born kid.
-The perm computations suggest that there may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's per month. Past history suggests a very good correlation between the number of I+C perms and I485s with the correlation coefficient being 1. Now if we distribute porting evenly over the year we can approximate the density to 2500 per month. This works very well to the duration of Jul 2007 to Jul 2008. CP is quite small for EB2 I/C this may just add as a buffer to make the 2500 per month flat figure look centrist neither too liberal and nor too conservative.
Many people believe that there was demand destruction due to the bad market situation the ratio of 1 account for 38% demand destruction implicitly as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62. Most conservative calculations would only assume 20% demand destruction for all reasons.

-With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has been 16 - 20K till Mar 15th 2007. This makes the total 29-33K.

There was 8.5 month advancement this may yield another minimum 16K. This will make the range at a minimum of 45K. Even if there is demand destruction the figure should range between 38-40K which is sufficient if HR 3012 passes right away.
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  #4658 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 02:26 PM
Donor
Priority Date
:
Aug-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/30/2011
Compare
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,765
thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
The current intake is already equivalent to 40K SOFAD, which is sufficient even in case HR 3012 passes right away. So movement really based on what kind of inventory CO might like to create. We may see movement or we may see retrogression I think all possibilities are open for the next 2 VB's because everything is based entirely on discretion.
There is no point in retrogression at this point. I agree the dates might not move too much forward. It might move a bit or in a worst case scenario the dates might stand at the current levels. Even if it stands still for a month or two we would start to see movment again after the summer or as soon as 3012 is enacted
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  #4659 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 02:30 PM
Donor
Priority Date
:
Aug-08
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
12/30/2011
Compare
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,765
thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute thomachan72 has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lovenil View Post
Teddy,

Which dates are safe to get green card by Fiscal year 2012 end without HR 3012?
Buddy now it all depends on when you turned ur 485 in. If you notice Mr Teddy himself is just getting his EAD while I know atleast 4 families with PDs in July 07 who already have the actual thing (GC) in their hands now. If you had applied during the July 07 fiasco and you are an EB2 then you are in the best possible position unless something really goes wrong with your case:
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  #4660 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 02:30 PM
Senior Member/Moderator
Priority Date
:
Jul-07
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
10/15/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
11/01/2011
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 1,512
TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute TeddyKoochu has a reputation beyond repute
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by lovenil View Post
Teddy,

Which dates are safe to get green card by Fiscal year 2012 end without HR 3012?
For now I would say somewhere around 01-FEB-2008 for actual approvals.
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  #4661 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 02:33 PM
Senior Member/Moderator
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:
Jul-07
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EB2
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:
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I-485
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:
11/01/2011
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Posts: 1,512
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomachan72 View Post
There is no point in retrogression at this point. I agree the dates might not move too much forward. It might move a bit or in a worst case scenario the dates might stand at the current levels. Even if it stands still for a month or two we would start to see movment again after the summer or as soon as 3012 is enacted
If you read the VB language itself they indicate that current movement is to gather intake once sufficient demand is built up then dates will retrogress. The intake is happening in smaller batches so probably the approvals will happen in the same fashion, unless there is no demand at all from EB2 ROW and EB1. The retrogression won't be as drastic as we had seen post Jul 2007. This cycle will keep repeating again once the current intake nears exhaustion.
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  #4662 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 02:42 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomachan72 View Post
Buddy now it all depends on when you turned ur 485 in. If you notice Mr Teddy himself is just getting his EAD while I know atleast 4 families with PDs in July 07 who already have the actual thing (GC) in their hands now. If you had applied during the July 07 fiasco and you are an EB2 then you are in the best possible position unless something really goes wrong with your case:
Noticed that 99% of your posts always have atleast one " " in'em. you are one hell of a positive upbeat guy
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  #4663 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 03:00 PM
Donor
Priority Date
:
Aug-08
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:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
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:
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:
I-485
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:
12/30/2011
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by floridasun View Post
Noticed that 99% of your posts always have atleast one " " in'em. you are one hell of a positive upbeat guy
Well out of the options available I like the best. Even for posts where I should be using or even I purposefully try to put
Hopefully we will see posts flooded with sometime by the end of Jan or early Feb 2012 when a gift we all are eagerly anticipating and working for will be given to us
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  #4664 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 03:10 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomachan72 View Post
Well out of the options available I like the best. Even for posts where I should be using or even I purposefully try to put
Hopefully we will see posts flooded with sometime by the end of Jan or early Feb 2012 when a gift we all are eagerly anticipating and working for will be given to us
haha you made my day. I am also hoping for by Feb 2012. After that happens, you will be officially named baba
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  #4665 (permalink)  
Old 12-29-2011, 03:12 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by floridasun View Post
haha you made my day. I am also hoping for by Feb 2012. After that happens, you will be officially named baba
BTW, are you located in Florida ? you sound like a friend I know - did u get ur Masters from a university in South East ?
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