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  #4681 (permalink)  
Old 12-31-2011, 05:14 PM
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Default More numbers to analyze

More numbers to analyze. Credit goes to the guy from the other forum for digging this up.


http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/c..._petitions.pdf
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  #4682 (permalink)  
Old 01-01-2012, 11:14 AM
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Happy New year to everyone!

Teddy, and other prediction gurus -- does this new ombudsman report support VB date movement in the next couple of bulletins?

Others forums seem to suggest that it does, but I can't seem to be able to interpret the data such.
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  #4683 (permalink)  
Old 01-01-2012, 09:35 PM
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Default

Friends here are the trends from for the first quarter.
Before this let’s assume how last year’s SOFAd of 30K was derived a) Eb1 – 12K (based on CO’s announcement, really after May EB1 hardly generated any SOFAD based on a subsequent announcement in the next VB’s) b) EB2 I/C Regular Cap 5.5K c) EB5 – 7k d) EB2 RoW – 5.5K.
2012 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2012 - 84
2011 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2011 - 116
Important to note that for this year 46 of the approvals came in December itself. This seems to indicate that when FY 2012 started that ROW approvable cases were less indicating thereby that a very clean job was done to approve most of them in Aug & Sep 2011 when EB2 I/C kind of stagnated. ROW approvals last year peaked up in later months. If we use the current trend literally let’s see how much SOFAD we may get from EB2 ROW. 40K – 5.5K (Regular Cap) – ( 84/116) * (40-5.5-5.5) = 34.5 - 21 = 13.5K. This would be around 8K more than last year. It is quite critical that ROW usage does not flare up in continuance of this month’s trend. Realistically ROW might just offer 4K extra SOFAD this year compared to last year. This assumption maybe classified as realistic to conservative.
2012 :: EB1-A – 16, EB1B – 31, EB1C – 74 Total - 121
2011 :: EB1-A – 13, Eb1-B – 16, EB1-C – 18, Total - 47

The EB1 Approvals on seem to be completely overshadowed by EB1C. The data maybe skewed because 63 of the 74 cases are from India. However the higher figures are quite consistent with the extraordinary rate of clearance of I140's from May to Sep 2011 - USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends.
Even though the number of EB1 B cases is small the number it id double of the previous year’s figures, this may indicate that finally the applications are coming out of the backlog related to the interpretation of the Kazarian Memo.
The trend of 3 fold cannot be believed quite literally. However assuming that last year Eb1 provided 12K SOFAD so last years consumption was 28K, so in theory even a 50% acceleration can quite literally clean up all EB1 SOFAD. At the current stage I believe that assuming that EB1 will provide No SOFAD this year may be quite reasonable we are only assuming a 50% increase as opposed to 200% shown by data. This assumption maybe classified from liberal to realistic.
Overall this brings the SOFAD down by 8K down to 22K from 30K.
The current consumption is quite easily 10K so if this trend were to hold there is another 12K to distribute. If we attribute another 2K to porting then there is only another 10k to distribute. For
Assuming 15th Jul 2007 as our baseline point. The OR of 1 means 2200 perms or 2200 485’s this will make us reach ~ 4.5 more months ahead which is 01-JAN-2008. If we assume an OR of 0.8 then its 1760 which makes it 5.5 months this makes is 01-FEB-2008. In this entire calculation the 2K PWMB folks to 15th Jul 2007 are excluded, this assumption can be classified and being liberal to offset some more demand destruction.
To conclude based on the Trend the GC issuance line maybe somewhere between 01-JAN-2008 to 01-FEB-2008 by Sep 2012.
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  #4684 (permalink)  
Old 01-02-2012, 12:52 AM
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Hi Teddy, how does this calculation translates to the actual visa numbers used for the actual GC approval. Is there any metric that can help me predict GC approval rates?
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  #4685 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2012, 01:10 PM
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Default Why the momment till jan 2009

If that the case . why did they move the date to jan 2009 in JAN bulletin if they have enough pipeline with dec 2011 date that moved it march 2008 .




Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Friends here are the trends from for the first quarter.
Before this let’s assume how last year’s SOFAd of 30K was derived a) Eb1 – 12K (based on CO’s announcement, really after May EB1 hardly generated any SOFAD based on a subsequent announcement in the next VB’s) b) EB2 I/C Regular Cap 5.5K c) EB5 – 7k d) EB2 RoW – 5.5K.
2012 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2012 - 84
2011 :: EB2 ROW (Primary Only) 2011 - 116
Important to note that for this year 46 of the approvals came in December itself. This seems to indicate that when FY 2012 started that ROW approvable cases were less indicating thereby that a very clean job was done to approve most of them in Aug & Sep 2011 when EB2 I/C kind of stagnated. ROW approvals last year peaked up in later months. If we use the current trend literally let’s see how much SOFAD we may get from EB2 ROW. 40K – 5.5K (Regular Cap) – ( 84/116) * (40-5.5-5.5) = 34.5 - 21 = 13.5K. This would be around 8K more than last year. It is quite critical that ROW usage does not flare up in continuance of this month’s trend. Realistically ROW might just offer 4K extra SOFAD this year compared to last year. This assumption maybe classified as realistic to conservative.
2012 :: EB1-A – 16, EB1B – 31, EB1C – 74 Total - 121
2011 :: EB1-A – 13, Eb1-B – 16, EB1-C – 18, Total - 47

The EB1 Approvals on seem to be completely overshadowed by EB1C. The data maybe skewed because 63 of the 74 cases are from India. However the higher figures are quite consistent with the extraordinary rate of clearance of I140's from May to Sep 2011 - USCIS: National Processing Volumes and Trends.
Even though the number of EB1 B cases is small the number it id double of the previous year’s figures, this may indicate that finally the applications are coming out of the backlog related to the interpretation of the Kazarian Memo.
The trend of 3 fold cannot be believed quite literally. However assuming that last year Eb1 provided 12K SOFAD so last years consumption was 28K, so in theory even a 50% acceleration can quite literally clean up all EB1 SOFAD. At the current stage I believe that assuming that EB1 will provide No SOFAD this year may be quite reasonable we are only assuming a 50% increase as opposed to 200% shown by data. This assumption maybe classified from liberal to realistic.
Overall this brings the SOFAD down by 8K down to 22K from 30K.
The current consumption is quite easily 10K so if this trend were to hold there is another 12K to distribute. If we attribute another 2K to porting then there is only another 10k to distribute. For
Assuming 15th Jul 2007 as our baseline point. The OR of 1 means 2200 perms or 2200 485’s this will make us reach ~ 4.5 more months ahead which is 01-JAN-2008. If we assume an OR of 0.8 then its 1760 which makes it 5.5 months this makes is 01-FEB-2008. In this entire calculation the 2K PWMB folks to 15th Jul 2007 are excluded, this assumption can be classified and being liberal to offset some more demand destruction.
To conclude based on the Trend the GC issuance line maybe somewhere between 01-JAN-2008 to 01-FEB-2008 by Sep 2012.
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  #4686 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2012, 01:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by abisen View Post
Hi Teddy, how does this calculation translates to the actual visa numbers used for the actual GC approval. Is there any metric that can help me predict GC approval rates?
This calculation is about actual approvals itself till Sep 2012. What we are trying to figure out is how much spillover will be available v/s how much is consumed so basically what is left to allocate.
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  #4687 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2012, 01:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madhekar View Post
If that the case . why did they move the date to jan 2009 in JAN bulletin if they have enough pipeline with dec 2011 date that moved it march 2008 .
Moving the dates further for intake does not violate any laws. The idea for large intakes is that they actually wan't to see how many people are available. When the Jan bulletin was issued even Nov filers were not fully in the system. Intake looks like is not governed by any calculations it is based more on guesstimate and discretion of the agencies. Also HR 3012 is a huge factor by having a large intake the agencies are covered on that regard as well.
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  #4688 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2012, 01:24 PM
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Default At the end of the day..

I don't think anyone knows what the USCIS's thought process is for moving the dates.

Lets all take a break and come back in a week. We'll know if USCIS has moved the VISA bulletin or not.

They may make it current...or they may take it back to 1901.

Meanwhile, our friends with EB1C can have fun....
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  #4689 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2012, 01:29 PM
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Default Why would they not do that to EB3 ?

Why would they not build a pipeline (accurate one) for EB3 India ?
I guess they do not think any one from 2002 / 2003 would have missed filing for 485 in 2007 !
__________________
Labor filed - Nov, 22 2002, approval - Dec 2005
140 filed - Dec, 28 2005, approval - Jan 2006
485 (EB3) - Vermont Service Center -June, 25 2007
RD - July 25th 2007
Upgraded to EB2 in July 2012.
Interfiling letter sent by Attorney on Oct 1st 2012
Opened SR on Oct 15th
USCIS Requested Interfiling Letter for upgrade (No RFE, just a Mail Response sent to me) - Oct 22
Sent Interfiling Letter & email (Personal - no Attorney) - Oct 25
Opened SR on 11/15
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  #4690 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2012, 02:31 PM
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Default

So we may see forward moment in FEB Bulletin .As DEC filers will not be in System
But march is when they may stop or move back then start approving people that have filled in OCT , NOV from march as background check is completed


Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Moving the dates further for intake does not violate any laws. The idea for large intakes is that they actually wan't to see how many people are available. When the Jan bulletin was issued even Nov filers were not fully in the system. Intake looks like is not governed by any calculations it is based more on guesstimate and discretion of the agencies. Also HR 3012 is a huge factor by having a large intake the agencies are covered on that regard as well.
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  #4691 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2012, 02:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madhekar View Post
So we may see forward moment in FEB Bulletin .As DEC filers will not be in System
But march is when they may stop or move back then start approving people that have filled in OCT , NOV from march as background check is completed
The upcoming VB can really go either way. We might see the dates move back or there may be more intakes it all depends on the agencies judgment and discretion. By the numbers we have definitely crossed the 1 year line. 2009 is the leanest year amongst all let’s wait and watch, Good luck to all.
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  #4692 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2012, 05:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boomboom View Post
Rumour is EB2 will be curreent till March 2010 in next bulltin.

Again just rumour. We never know how uscis is gonna move the dates after we have seen jan 2012 bulletin.

Good luck to all....
Where are you reading this rumor?
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  #4693 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2012, 05:26 PM
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Default

Friends just read KrishEB2 PD (19-May-2009) got a NVC fee notice, this could be a very positive indicator of forward movement.
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  #4694 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2012, 06:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Friends just read KrishEB2 PD (19-May-2009) got a NVC fee notice, this could be a very positive indicator of forward movement.
Really hope so Teddy ! I am right on the edge now...
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  #4695 (permalink)  
Old 01-03-2012, 07:22 PM
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Default 485 approvals...

Will CO be able to push the speed of approvals and hand the GC over to most of the applicants? This seems to equal our 2007 Fiasco...
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