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  #4891 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
TREND
Following is a compare of the EB2 row and EB1 trend so far. The month of Jan is still in progress so the overall 2012 tally will be higher finally. All data is for primary approved cases from Oct Jan for the respective years.
EB1 (A+B+C)
2011 - 17+21+23 = 61
2012 - 23+42+92 = 157

The number of EB1C approvals is almost at 4 times of last year. While EB1A is at the same level EB1B vases are also double now this may indicate that the impact of the Kazarian memo is now receding. Most EB1C cases will use up more visas as these folks are less likely to have us born kids as a lot of them will be in the age group 35-40 when they would have filed I140 & I485. Most of EB1C is from India so the data should not be taken at absolute face value. The trend correlates well with high I140 approvals just prior to the start of FY 2012.
EB2 ROW
2011 - 108
2012 158

EB2 row is still underperforming but has picked up from the 50% line; row has a tendency to pick up later in the year. Partly this may have been due to the prevailing wage stoppage.
For now it appears that the 12K SOFAD that we got from EB1 will most likely not be available this year. EB2 ROW will hopefully compensate some of the loss. Also the Oct filers / Nov filers (Very Few) approvals for EB2 I/C have slowed down they have not been all inclusive either for Oct filers, normally when numbers are available in good supply everyone gets approved.
This maybe just my theory, I believe that CO allocated the entire 5.6K India / China annual cap in Oct itself in the month of Oct QSP quantity / volume cannot be judged. The rest of the approvals which is easily 12K including porting have come by quarterly spillover. This way CO is in fact ahead of QSP at this point and a very significant portion of the SOFAD has been used.
Good luck to everyone for the next VB which might go either way. Demand destruction is a factor for the new intake however this year since the wiggle room offered by the SOFAD left is not very much it will not significantly impact the approval line. For example an OR of .8 as opposed to 1 just causes a difference of ~ 2K numbers assuming that SOFAD will be 22K and 12K is consumed so 10K is left.
In other words I guess what you are saying here is that even if we see forward movments in the next bulletins the main advantage will be limited to everybody getting EAD/APs right? Actual approvals will be slow and next wave might have to wait till sept/oct 12'? All the more reason for everybody to support 3012. It might not benefit EB2 immediately but both EB2 and EB3 I/C will certainly see PD movments faster in the near future if 3012 were to pass
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  #4892 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 01:16 PM
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Default This just posted by AILA

Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.


Prediction:

Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.
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  #4893 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 01:17 PM
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kataria is a splendid one to behold kataria is a splendid one to behold kataria is a splendid one to behold kataria is a splendid one to behold kataria is a splendid one to behold kataria is a splendid one to behold kataria is a splendid one to behold
Default Teddy?

Teddy,
Hats off to you for all the analysis. Can you please break it down to something lesser mortals like me can understand -

1. GC Approvals in 2012 - According to you, what Priority Dates will get through.
2. EAD/AP Approvals in 2012 - I guess this is anybody's guess but whats your opinion on where will CO draw the line.

Of course things will become a lot easier with HR3012. I am doing my part on that.

Thanks
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Contributed for 2011 IV advocacy efforts and HR 3012 advocacy efforts.
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  #4894 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 01:29 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kataria View Post
Teddy,
Hats off to you for all the analysis. Can you please break it down to something lesser mortals like me can understand -

1. GC Approvals in 2012 - According to you, what Priority Dates will get through.
2. EAD/AP Approvals in 2012 - I guess this is anybody's guess but whats your opinion on where will CO draw the line.

Of course things will become a lot easier with HR3012. I am doing my part on that.

Thanks
If I remember correctly Teddy had earlier predicted that the approvals can go upto March/April 08 during 12 without 3012. I am not sure what he mentioned about approvals if 3012 were to pass. I know he had said that since ROW has already consumed most of their quota 3012 might not be able to clear 08 EB2 completely? Again just based on my memory on what he said earlier.
Really hope we hear something positive about 3012 (life changer for lot of us) soon.
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  #4895 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 02:28 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by akshaya10001 View Post
Visa Office Update on Priority Dates and Demand

Cite as "AILA InfoNet Doc. No. 12012349 (posted Jan. 23, 2012)"


On Thursday, January 19, 2012, Business committee chair Mike Nowlan and Students & Scholars committee member, Roberta Freedman, discussed the Visa Bulletin, visa demand in the employment preference categories, and predictions for FY2012 with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office. Notes from that discussion are:

EB green card usage has been very slow in FY2012, so DOS is advancing the dates to see how many cases are out there. Mr. Oppenheim is relying on USCIS and their estimate. USCIS thought more would come in, but 50% their estimate have actually filed an AOS. This movement is due in large part to the clearing out of the EB-2 2007 AOS cases. Mr. Oppenheim reminds AILA that DOS cannot "see" the I-140 cases that are approved and for which adjustment of status had been requested prior to September 2010, though he can "see" cases for which consular processing is requested.
Mr. Oppenheim could not speculate why usage is slow/low. Economy? Foreign nationals lost jobs?
Low usage of EB-1 numbers is assumed again this year. A fall-down of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim's projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers "spill up" to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.
Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers. We cited the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1-1 numbers, and the fact that it is difficult for an owner-beneficiary to obtain approval of EB-1-3 petitions.
About 34% of the total number of permanent visas have been used this year, and 45% should be used by end of February.
Adjustment of status through USCIS accounts for 85% to 90% of all EB green card cases.
The impact on number usage of upgrades (EB-3 to EB-2) is still unknown. Upgrades were the reason the priority dates advanced so slowly in in the beginning of FY2011. For upgrades, the EB-3 case does not get cleared out of the system until the EB-2 for the same person is approved.
Mr. Oppenheim also wonders whether demand is weak for visas for dependent family members, and so fewer green cards are needed.
Mr. Oppenheim meets monthly with USCIS and the Ombudsman's office to review the receipt of cases. There was a recent meeting to discuss December numbers. There will be another review before he decides what he will do in March.


Prediction:

Employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March Visa Bulletin, likely by at least a few months. An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely. He will know as this month moves on. With normal USCIS adjustment of status processing times of four-to-six months, March is the last time for Mr. Oppenheim to get the AOS cases filed and possibly approved in FY2012. He will then probably hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance it if needed. Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.
USCIS is agreeing to the priority date advances, though significant advances are bit of a gamble for USCIS, because if they get inundated with adjustment filings, and subsequently there is priority date retrogression, USCIS will have to process EAD and advance parole extensions without additional fees. As we all know, retrogression causes chaos.
Akshaya Thanks for posting. Quite a few striking points.

USCIS comment that filing is 50% of what they expected is a combination of their expectation probably being way over the top and demand destruction. Demand destruction is definitely not at an OR of 0.5, only way to rationalize this would be that their expectation of filings was way over the top.
EB1 usage and expectation of 12K fall down is completely at odds with the other site where the usage is significantly higher.
34% usage till now and 45% by Feb is very much on Track. The composition of approvals will hold the key. Let us see if we get some more Oct & Nov filer approvals.
The next bulletin will likely see another 6 months of movement this will be very good news for everyone, I believe the demand data showing lower figures will be the technicality that will be used to keep the dates advancing. All the very best to everyone.
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  #4896 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 02:36 PM
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Hoping for atleast 6 month movement.. Fingers crossed
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  #4897 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 02:38 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kataria View Post
Teddy,
Hats off to you for all the analysis. Can you please break it down to something lesser mortals like me can understand -

1. GC Approvals in 2012 - According to you, what Priority Dates will get through.
2. EAD/AP Approvals in 2012 - I guess this is anybody's guess but whats your opinion on where will CO draw the line.

Of course things will become a lot easier with HR3012. I am doing my part on that.

Thanks
For EAD - AP - 01-JUL-2012 based on the AILA news Update.
For GC 01-JAN-2008 to 31st Mar 2008.
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  #4898 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 02:39 PM
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tojo_m can only hope to improve
Default

hoping for 8 months progress
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  #4899 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 02:40 PM
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Default Correction !

Following are the corrected dates
For EAD - AP - 01-JUL-2010 Folbased on the AILA news Update (6 Months)
For GC 01-JAN-2008 to 31st Mar 2008.
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  #4900 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 02:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tojo_m View Post
hoping for 8 months progress
I guess as per Teddy even if they limit their advancing to 6 mnths in the next bulletin they would have sufficient numbers to approve to about March 08 so you will certainly be current after the summer (sept/october 12). Isnt that correct Teddy?
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  #4901 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 03:22 PM
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Our PD is Sep 2011. Labor has been approved. We are applying for I140. With the current movement should we go in for a premium processing on the I140.
Also our H1 expires in Oct 2011.
Please advice
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  #4902 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 03:29 PM
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Correction. H1 expires in Oct 2012
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  #4903 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 03:29 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomachan72 View Post
I guess as per Teddy even if they limit their advancing to 6 mnths in the next bulletin they would have sufficient numbers to approve to about March 08 so you will certainly be current after the summer (sept/october 12). Isnt that correct Teddy?
My assumption of 6 months is based on the posting by AILA. The way the current intakes is going is completely based on discretion. If our friend tojo is lucky then even next bulletin is a possibility, worst case without HR 3012 this is already a 2 year inventory. HR 3012 passage will really help, there may not be a similar movement in Oct 2012 without HR 3012.
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  #4904 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 04:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sep_2011_PD View Post
Our PD is Sep 2011. Labor has been approved. We are applying for I140. With the current movement should we go in for a premium processing on the I140.
Also our H1 expires in Oct 2011.
Please advice
@sep_2011_PD I suggest go for premium processing. You can get ur H1 ext. for next 3yrs based upon ur I140 approval.
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  #4905 (permalink)  
Old 01-23-2012, 04:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sep_2011_PD View Post
Our PD is Sep 2011. Labor has been approved. We are applying for I140. With the current movement should we go in for a premium processing on the I140.
Also our H1 expires in Oct 2011.
Please advice
If you can get PP then ofcourse that is always the best. You can have peace of mind that it is resolved.
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