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  #46 (permalink)  
Old 02-14-2011, 06:06 PM
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  #47 (permalink)  
Old 02-14-2011, 06:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waitingnwaiting View Post
So you created a profile just to post this?
Can't you post this from your own original profile? Why are so scared to post something from your original profile if you really believe in something.

Dude, I have too many PRECIOUS GREENS that I need to conserve on my original profile. There is army of overly optimistic members ready to attack any non-confirming entities. This overly Optimistic and underly realistic army religiously hails to the predictions of self proclaimed EB-Pundits and shun out any guy posting realistic scenarios. I hope that these guys get out of imagination-land sooner than later.
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  #48 (permalink)  
Old 02-14-2011, 06:27 PM
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Wish the Greens in the Profile could translate to Green Card.....

The Elixir of Life.
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  #49 (permalink)  
Old 02-14-2011, 06:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanz View Post
Wish the Greens in the Profile could translate to Green Card.....

The Elixir of Life.
Eventually it will ... But guess you'll have to hail Teddy to get exact dates and time.
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  #50 (permalink)  
Old 02-14-2011, 07:50 PM
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Teddy,
Do you have any data/numbers for EB3 ROW? I am not sure why it's not moving the way it should. Do you see EB3 ROW touching 2006 by September'2011?

Thanks in advance.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Summary Of Predictions
EB2 I- FEB To APR 2007
EB3 I- APR 15 2002



Folowing is my current draft still work in progress will be editing it soon

Date India China PWMB CP Total Cumlative
Offset 7200 800 0 0 8000 8000
May-06 1110 38 100 100 1348 9348
Jun-06 1696 541 100 100 2437 11785
Jul-06 1505 620 100 100 2325 14110
Aug-06 1677 693 100 100 2570 16680
Sep-06 1745 773 100 100 2718 19398
Oct-06 1747 732 100 100 2679 22077
Nov-06 1737 667 100 100 2604 24681
Dec-06 1881 770 200 100 2951 27632
Jan-07 1540 654 200 100 2494 30126
Feb-07 1444 615 200 100 2359 32485
Mar-07 1404 682 200 100 2386 34871
Apr-07 1420 609 200 100 2329 37200
May-07 1070 519 500 100 2189 39389
Jun-07 1272 558 1000 100 2930 42319
Jul-07 1673 1788 2000 100 5561 47880

- In the table above the columns India and china represent the monthly figures from the Jan 2011 Inventory. By this time we should assume that 3 months worth of cap for India and China has been consumed. So ~ 1400 Numbers are consumed.

- PD porting was calculated as 3K for last year by subtraction of the EB3-I inventory and then excluding the EB3-I annual cap, this year however due to the district office demand inclusion it is not possible. A very conservative guesstimate that will not be broken is 6K. PD Porting that may have happened in these months in 2011 should be reflected in the inventory (There are divergent opinions on this subject though if EB2 Inventory is updated as soon as porting happens). So to be safe we will assume that all of 6K porting that is expected has not been applied to the inventory.

- The starting offset for India assumes 6K PD Porting + 700 Cases Approved + 500 old cases not approved = 7200. For China it Assumes 700 Cases Approved + 100 older cases. The total offset at the start is 8000. We should assume the porting as part of the offset as we will not se any movement till Jul. Looks like porting is only happening for India.

- PWMB refers to those who could not file for their 485’s as the labor approval was missed out or they are adding dependants now. These values are by my gut feeling another point to note is that the PWMB demand especially from May 2007 maybe felt only when the dates reach that point, so ~3500 lesser SOFAD maybe required for the dates to actually move forward if the inventory is the baseline.

- The total monthly is the extrapolated total for the month and cumulative sum is the cumulative figure. Now if someone is interested in finding out that what point we will reach in Sep 2011 they should put their figure of SOFAD and see the resting point.

- Following is the SOFAD received from different sources based on the DOS Annual Report EB1 - 2K, EB2 ROW - 9.5K, EB5 - 9K, Regular Cap (I+C) = 6K

Now lets analyze on That Website to see the trend for Oct 2010 to Jan 2011

Year 2009 (Oct to Dec) EB2 ROW – 211 EB2 NIW – 34 Total - 245
EB1A – 57 EB1B – 97 EB1C – 70 Total - 196
Year 2010 (Oct to Jan) EB2 ROW – 153 EB2 NIW – 16 Total - 169
EB1A – 18 EB1B – 22 EB1C – 22 Total - 53
The drop in EB1 appears to be really drastic however I feel it is not being adequately represented.
However looks like the EB1 consumption could drop this year compared to last year though. If the EB1
Consumption actually drops to 50% of last year then this could provide ~ 15K SOFAD this year.
Consumption last year = 43000 - 3500 = 39500.
If we assume a drop of 25% (Extremely conservative) the consumption will be 29625
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-26925 ~ 11K
If we assume a drop of 50% (Extremely Optimistic) the consumption will be 19750
However this year we are back to the regular cap so SOFAD = 40320-19750 ~ 20K
For the conservative calculation let’s just go ahead with 11K.
For EB2 the data appears to be good.
EB2 ROW consumption last year = 43000 - 6000 - 9500 = 27500.
Now the trend shows that the consumption is (169/245) * 27500 ~ 20K.
So potential SOFAD out of EB2 ROW will be 34K - 20K ~ 14K.
EB5 SOFAD will be ~ 8K.
Hence total SOFAD that we can expect in 2011 = 11 + 18 + 5 = 34K.
With ~ 34 K SOFAD we may reach Mid March 2007. Now lets look at all possible scenario’s.
Worst possible case is that we have 26.5K SOFAd just like last year, this will put us at 01-JAN02007.
Best case scenario is EB1 gives us an extra 10K and the PWMB demand will be felt only when the dates cross May 2007 so kind of add 13K on top of the 34K this can actually help to throw us over the fence finally to 01-AUG-2007, this again is extremely optimistic but not impossible. We just have to continue monitoring for more time.

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  #51 (permalink)  
Old 02-14-2011, 08:28 PM
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Default Be realistic folks

Not sure if I deserve that many reds for speaking out what most of us know. I guess it hurts to know the truth. I appreciate the efforts of IV Core team and others state chapter members to work towards immigration reforms. While we try that, we should not go far away from reality and build the sand castles by calculating the dates using unpublished and imaginary data.

All Sand castles came down crashing down last year when EB2 dates moved only 14 months but were projected to move much further by Pundits.
Don't raise your expectations and hope same for this year.

The realistic movement is 4-5 months given the influx of EB3 to EB2 porting. I am EB2 but strongly support the right of EB3 to be able to port. Lets not be divided EB1,EB2 or EB3, lets try to work as united EB-India.



Quote:
Originally Posted by RamBihari View Post
Lets be real guys. These are the Lessons learnt from Last Year is the :

NONE OF ABOVE PREDICTIONS BY PUNDITS (Teddy and others) WORKS. THEIR NUMBERS WERE FAR FAR AWAY FROM REALITY.

1. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOW THE NUMBER OF EB3 to EB2 porting. THERE IS NO WAY TO ESTIMATE THAT. I GUESS ALL OF EB3-I WILL AT LEAST TRY TO ATTEMPT THE PORTING ONCE SOONER OR LATER.

2. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOWS NUMBER OF COUNSELOR PROCESSING CASES PENDING OUTSIDE US.

3. ECONOMY PICKED UP AND SO DID EB2-ROW APPLICATIONS AND APPROVALS IN LAST TWO YEARS. WITH ANOTHER 4 MONTHS TO GO, I DOUBT THAT MUCH OF VISA NUMBERS WOULD BE LEFT FOR SPILLOVER. WE CAN GUESS, BUT WHO KNOWS FOR SURE..

4. NUMBER OF SPILLOVER IS GOING TO DRAMATICALLY DOWN IN COMING YEARS AS ECONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM.

5. ANY LEGISLATIVE HELP IS FAR FROM POSSIBLE IN THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE AND HEATED ANTI-IMMIGRATION SEMANTICS IN THIS COUNTRY. TALKING FOR IMMIGRANTS (LEGAL OR ILLEGAL) TRANSLATES TO "DON'T VOTE FOR ME" FOR THE POLITICIANS EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE RIGHT THING TO DO IN THEIR OPINION.


For EB3 the best shot is to try porting. Don't be shy of doing that since you have nothing to loose, worst that can happen is that porting won't go through but rewards are green.

EB2 guys wait or try to port to EB1.
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  #52 (permalink)  
Old 02-15-2011, 10:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RamBihari View Post
Not sure if I deserve that many reds for speaking out what most of us know. I guess it hurts to know the truth. I appreciate the efforts of IV Core team and others state chapter members to work towards immigration reforms. While we try that, we should not go far away from reality and build the sand castles by calculating the dates using unpublished and imaginary data.

All Sand castles came down crashing down last year when EB2 dates moved only 14 months but were projected to move much further by Pundits.
Don't raise your expectations and hope same for this year.

The realistic movement is 4-5 months given the influx of EB3 to EB2 porting. I am EB2 but strongly support the right of EB3 to be able to port. Lets not be divided EB1,EB2 or EB3, lets try to work as united EB-India.
If you truly appreciate IV's efforts then show it by being a donor member. By posting that you appreciate, IV does not get anything to continue the good work they are doing.
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  #53 (permalink)  
Old 02-15-2011, 11:05 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eastindia View Post
If you truly appreciate IV's efforts then show it by being a donor member. By posting that you appreciate, IV does not get anything to continue the good work they are doing.
Eastindia... are you am agent of IV, you are asking everybody for money. People will give if they want to. may be same people are helping IV in other ways.

Relax.

Jet
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  #54 (permalink)  
Old 02-15-2011, 11:10 AM
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Its good to be realistic, and we all need a 'reality check' quite a few times...all of us have collateral associated with the PD....while optimism reigned supreme in 2010, we should not fall victim to the same this year....and maybe we can be cautiously optimistic......given that we have no FB based visa numbers, and we have more porting, nad that USCIS will be extremly cautious as it approaces the July 2007 timeline, should we add more caution to the numbers so well calculated by TEDDY? I thought our biggest assumption that did not pan out was the reliance on the numbers from "website that shall not be named"......

Quote:
Originally Posted by RamBihari View Post
Lets be real guys. These are the Lessons learnt from Last Year is the :

NONE OF ABOVE PREDICTIONS BY PUNDITS (Teddy and others) WORKS. THEIR NUMBERS WERE FAR FAR AWAY FROM REALITY.

1. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOW THE NUMBER OF EB3 to EB2 porting. THERE IS NO WAY TO ESTIMATE THAT. I GUESS ALL OF EB3-I WILL AT LEAST TRY TO ATTEMPT THE PORTING ONCE SOONER OR LATER.

2. NOBODY (not even USCIS) KNOWS NUMBER OF COUNSELOR PROCESSING CASES PENDING OUTSIDE US.

3. ECONOMY PICKED UP AND SO DID EB2-ROW APPLICATIONS AND APPROVALS IN LAST TWO YEARS. WITH ANOTHER 4 MONTHS TO GO, I DOUBT THAT MUCH OF VISA NUMBERS WOULD BE LEFT FOR SPILLOVER. WE CAN GUESS, BUT WHO KNOWS FOR SURE..

4. NUMBER OF SPILLOVER IS GOING TO DRAMATICALLY DOWN IN COMING YEARS AS ECONOMY GAINS MOMENTUM.

5. ANY LEGISLATIVE HELP IS FAR FROM POSSIBLE IN THE POLITICAL STRUCTURE AND HEATED ANTI-IMMIGRATION SEMANTICS IN THIS COUNTRY. TALKING FOR IMMIGRANTS (LEGAL OR ILLEGAL) TRANSLATES TO "DON'T VOTE FOR ME" FOR THE POLITICIANS EVEN THOUGH IT MIGHT BE RIGHT THING TO DO IN THEIR OPINION.


For EB3 the best shot is to try porting. Don't be shy of doing that since you have nothing to loose, worst that can happen is that porting won't go through but rewards are green.

EB2 guys wait or try to port to EB1.
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  #55 (permalink)  
Old 02-15-2011, 01:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by little_willy View Post
MC - Why so much hatred towards EB3. Come July, you will be out of this misery but not the EB3 folks. You don't have the patience to wait for few months and blame people waiting for years and trying to expedite their case by following the rules.

Anyway, here is Ron Gotcher's take on this, I thought of you when I read this.
Article regarding EB2 India
I suggest every EB2 who is cribbing about porting read this link!!

I am EB2 and porting will hurt me but I am also grateful for the spillover visas that are now giving EB2 more hope than ever. So I will Thank God that I will get my GC in 3-5 years and have no problem when genuine EB3 to EB2 porting occurs.

Now the only thing I would like to disagree on is when EB3 people quote their Masters degrees and the fact that they have experience worth EB2 application which is really irrelevant. I say this because your Labor app is not based on your qualification (which could be EB2 worth) but on the requirements of the position.

Either ways, hope everyone on these forums maintains a basic respect for each other and more importantly help in anyway possible with the Advocacy efforts of IV core.
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  #56 (permalink)  
Old 02-15-2011, 02:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bondgoli007 View Post
I suggest every EB2 who is cribbing about porting read this link!!

I am EB2 and porting will hurt me but I am also grateful for the spillover visas that are now giving EB2 more hope than ever. So I will Thank God that I will get my GC in 3-5 years and have no problem when genuine EB3 to EB2 porting occurs.

Now the only thing I would like to disagree on is when EB3 people quote their Masters degrees and the fact that they have experience worth EB2 application which is really irrelevant. I say this because your Labor app is not based on your qualification (which could be EB2 worth) but on the requirements of the position.

Either ways, hope everyone on these forums maintains a basic respect for each other and more importantly help in anyway possible with the Advocacy efforts of IV core.
Are we all not famous for pulling each other down and caring little about others?
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  #57 (permalink)  
Old 02-15-2011, 02:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by waitingnwaiting View Post
Are we all not famous for pulling each other down and caring little about others?
waitingnwaiting i see that your line of thought is quite different now then what it was when we exchanged thoughts and posts a few weeks back on another thread. Surprising how a person's view point changes so drastically in such a short time

Coming to this thread ...
- Yes we are famous for pulling each other down ....
- But what we are also famous for helping people we know nothing about and have never met face to face before or helping people we know without being asked and without expecting anything in return

I know that sounds like we all are bi-polar but i tend to dwell on the good and ignore the bad

In any case the persons pulling down are in the minority ..... so chill

Last edited by PlainSpeak; 02-15-2011 at 02:58 PM.
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  #58 (permalink)  
Old 02-15-2011, 03:07 PM
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Default I cry foul!

say-why would an admin(pappu) delete posts that are neither offensive/abusive?
Is there a censor board that operates outside of the IV forum rules?
Am I the only one that is affected by this?
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  #59 (permalink)  
Old 02-17-2011, 11:00 AM
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Default

Hey Guys,
There is an advocacy event organized for the benefit of people who are stuck in the GC process for long.

Take part in it.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/fo...il-2011-a.html (Action Item: Advocacy days in Washington DC in April 2011)
__________________
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ivcoordinator@gmail.com
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Money with active participation is far more powerful - please join your state chapters and meet with your lawmakers.
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  #60 (permalink)  
Old 02-17-2011, 01:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RamBihari View Post
All Sand castles came down crashing down last year when EB2 dates moved only 14 months but were projected to move much further by Pundits.
Hold on. Some corrections to the above, if I may please:
1. Movement was "more than 15" months, not "only 14"
2. ". . . castles came down crashing . . . projected to move much further" is also a misrepresentation because
--a) Primary prediction was for Nov. Thus deviation was 6 out of 15 = 40%
--b) Prior to this thread, the prediction was for 3 - 4 months of movement. Thus deviation prior to this thread was 11 out of 15 > 66%
This shows significant improvement.

Moreover, I recall that the major reason for the 40% deviation was due to unavailability of porting numbers. We basically need to focus on this aspect alone, IMHO, and the rest will be easily derived
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