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  #6226 (permalink)  
Old 06-19-2012, 06:02 PM
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Originally Posted by dhakaldoo View Post
Whattt? EB1 cutoff date? OMG! without spill over from ROW and Eb1 all EB2 IC is going to become similar to EB3 and I can only imagine what happens to EB3!
No loss no gain in the near short term for EB3 .. it's only EB2 that will get affected, say, in the next 5 yrs or so. At this time, there is predictability for EB3 - just 2800 per year and that's about it.
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  #6227 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 12:57 PM
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Default How EB2 moved this year and projection for next year

Friends here is what has happened for EB2 this year and its impact to next year. Let us try to come up with ROW consumption from another angle.
- EB2 I/C probably used 22 - 24K this year. This gives ROW + M + P a wiggle room of 16 - 18K.
- When the brakes were applied that was the time they realized that EB1 will actually use up its entire cap this year, essentially EB1 would not lose anything. EB1 using its full cap was not a surprise considering that last year the Kazarian memo slowed down things, there was a huge reduction of I140 backlog and EB1C usage was quite high. Based on these factors I had made a prediction that Eb1 will probably not give any SOFAD this year.
- From 2011 v/s 2012 approvals for EB2 ROW Primary approvals are 507 to 330.
- Now for simplicity letís assume that EB2 ROW, M & P were all equally impacted with EB2 I/C crossing the line assuming the demands were same this year as well we saw 330/507 = .65 of the approvals from last year. For simplicity I have assumed the ROW numbers from to represent ROW + M + P.
- Now .65 of 28 gives the range of 18. The figure of 18K gels well with the guesstimated value of 22K of what Eb2 I/C have consumed assuming the 40K allowed for EB2.
- So if we go by 18K then .35 of this i.e. ~ 6-6.5K was not satiated this year. This kind of wipes out ROW sofad for the upcoming year or at least 75% of it.
Letís wait and see how things turn out when the FY 2013 starts in October. I believe it will take a minimum of 1 quarter for EB2 ROW to be current on the VB and then another quarter to run current ion terms of approvals. ROW can only give SOFAD when they are current in terms of approvals.
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  #6228 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 01:09 PM
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Originally Posted by mzc123 View Post
very interesting..... all of sudden they started thinking, did the eb1 applications just flooded in last 2 months? Why weren't they thinking when they rapidly moved the dates 3+ years for EB2-I/C and caused a chaotic situation once again ..... Later PDs got approved ahead of older cases. Now they have a reason to "think", of course they do!! ... every time we see rapid movement, we end up suffering for years thereafter...

Pappu, shouldn't we be having discussion about the FIFO process with them rather than having discussion about cutoff dates... it sounds more like we are getting updates and not having true "discussions".
Your case definitely is an example of FIFO not happening in letter and spirit and really terrible luck. I think I can relate to your situation a little better being a PWMB. Unfortunately the approval process is not a single thread batch process where FIFO could possibly be followed but a hum intensive multi thread process split up into 2 service centers. Now at the perm stage in 2007 Atlanta was taking 3 months while Chicago was taking 3 days this is the reason why all Atlanta folks who applied between May - Jul 2007 became PWMB's. When it came to 485 adjudication NSC was way ahead of TSC, NSC was even able to approve cases as late as PD of Dec 2008 while TSC could not fully adjudicate a good part of 2007 cases. Partly the reason is TSC had more cases than NSC. Your case was however filed in Oct so its sheer bad luck that even by TSC standards it was not picked up either it was a late background check or simply assigned to the slowest individual. I consider myself lucky barely making it in TSC after getting a RFE. If we look at your case it is probably the most glaring example of FIFO not happening in letter and spirit.

Date movement to May 2010 was a great thing, I have only seen 2 examples of intake for EB2 I/C one was the 2007 fiasco and the second one in 2011 which was more controlled. It is hard to believe that the 2011 intake was based on any estimate or calculations it was probably the idea of the agencies to have a large cut of individuals which is a win- win for all. However I believe the approvals should have been more orderly.
Unfortunately with the current situation it might take the entire next year to barely cross 2007 for EB2 I/C, this is just my own initial assessment lets see how things go by. Personally for you mzc123 I believe you will be greened in Oct 2012, EB2 I/C date should be 01-Aug-2007.
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  #6229 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by thomachan72 View Post
wonder how much of the EB1 usage is related to the L1 multinational managers!!
EB1 using its full cap was not a surprise considering that last year the Kazarian memo slowed down things, there was a huge reduction of I140 backlog and EB1C usage was quite high. Based on these factors I had made a prediction that Eb1 will probably not give any SOFAD this year.

However if we look at this year as a whole there are only 2 VB's to go and traditionally in early September all numbers are used up anyway. So really saying EB1 will have a cutoff date is not being that drastic we are talking of a deviation of maximum 2K.
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  #6230 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 01:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by checkmet64 View Post
Can anybody fine tune this analysis based on current information?
There were a lot of discussions on HR 3012 when it passed in the house. Basically if HR 3012 passes on any given day EB2 I/C or Eb3-I will have ~ 25 extra visas prorated for the year. Now in this year there are only 2 months to go so only 2/12 of 25K left. The catch up will continue till the retrogressed catch up with ROW. EB3-I could move into 2004 right away and EB2 could have a Jan 2010 cutoff date if anything were to happen by Oct.
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  #6231 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 01:22 PM
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Originally Posted by flthere View Post
No loss no gain in the near short term for EB3 .. it's only EB2 that will get affected, say, in the next 5 yrs or so. At this time, there is predictability for EB3 - just 2800 per year and that's about it.
You are absolutely correct without any reforms EB3-I is stuck at 2.8K per year and EB2 I/C is purely at the mercy of spillover. Still EB2 situation with even less spillover is far better than EB3.
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  #6232 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 01:39 PM
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Default To PAPPU and IV - Help out EB3

Pappu, If IV is in constant discussion and working on getting the priority dates determined, why don't IV also propose to use FIFO on the priority date, which will be fair for everyone, helping the EB3 folks who are in the line for a long long time. You may think that I am talking on my own perspective, well I am waiting for almost a decade in this process watching people who came much later and even got their citizenship, so it's okay to vent out somewhere some time . Thank you and appreciate all your and IV's efforts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pappu View Post
Rapid adancement of eb2 dates was a good thing. We had proposed that knowing well that dates will go back eventually. This was mentioned too when we we're proposing that. Donor members were fully aware on this and some details were posted on public forums.Thousands of EB2 folks are now enjoying the benefits of EAD because of this and should be thankful. Do not look narrowly around your own application. As a policy it was a good decision without any admin fix or law change. And FiFO is being followed. It is the best that can be practically possibile and we agree with it. Only people who have not spent time understanding the process and getting misled on forums think that FIFO is not being followed. Having worked closely with officials for a long period of time and having discussed even minor and major topics we can be assertive in our posts and will only blame USCIS where it is at fault. Other admins, lawyers or website may play to the crowd for their selfish business gains, but we will call right as right and wrong as wrong. tracking and wasting time on junk info on forums will only irritate you and mislead you. join the community effort and help others. One should be happy in EB2 that they at least got to file 485 and are close to getting current. Imagine fellow friends in eb3 that have a much longer wait and no relief in sight. And that is called frustration.
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  #6233 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 01:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
There were a lot of discussions on HR 3012 when it passed in the house. Basically if HR 3012 passes on any given day EB2 I/C or Eb3-I will have ~ 25 extra visas prorated for the year. Now in this year there are only 2 months to go so only 2/12 of 25K left. The catch up will continue till the retrogressed catch up with ROW. EB3-I could move into 2004 right away and EB2 could have a Jan 2010 cutoff date if anything were to happen by Oct.
As always thanks Teddy for your analysis. Also, if HR3012 was to become law of the land by Oct'12, when do you expect EB2-I/C to catch up with ROW? Also, when do you think EB2-I/C may become current?
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  #6234 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 01:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by checkmet64 View Post
As always thanks Teddy for your analysis. Also, if HR3012 was to become law of the land by Oct'12, when do you expect EB2-I/C to catch up with ROW? Also, when do you think EB2-I/C may become current?
It will take 3 years for both EB2 I/C and EB3-I to catch up with ROW. EB2 as a whole being current is a very distant possibility being a moving target. Recently perms went up so that target went even further. If we have 30K SOFAD for the next 5-6 years uninterrupted then its a possibility otherwise even if 1 year goes bad the target moves further. USCIS / DOS may have it current if they like to have a grand intake but to have EB2 current in terms of approvals is very far. The current inventory that we have for EB2 I/C will easily sustain till Oct - Dec 2014. In EB2 you can expect GC though by the current standards in 5 years, the headwinds for 2013 however are extremely bad.
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  #6235 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 02:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanhari View Post
Pappu, If IV is in constant discussion and working on getting the priority dates determined, why don't IV also propose to use FIFO on the priority date, which will be fair for everyone, helping the EB3 folks who are in the line for a long long time. You may think that I am talking on my own perspective, well I am waiting for almost a decade in this process watching people who came much later and even got their citizenship, so it's okay to vent out somewhere some time . Thank you and appreciate all your and IV's efforts.
Barring legislation, your only hope is to start labor -EB2, move your PD to EB2. I am in same situation with June 2003- pd. In the country since 1998.
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  #6236 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 03:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
It will take 3 years for both EB2 I/C and EB3-I to catch up with ROW. EB2 as a whole being current is a very distant possibility being a moving target. Recently perms went up so that target went even further. If we have 30K SOFAD for the next 5-6 years uninterrupted then its a possibility otherwise even if 1 year goes bad the target moves further. USCIS / DOS may have it current if they like to have a grand intake but to have EB2 current in terms of approvals is very far. The current inventory that we have for EB2 I/C will easily sustain till Oct - Dec 2014. In EB2 you can expect GC though by the current standards in 5 years, the headwinds for 2013 however are extremely bad.
Hi Teddy,

Again thanks for your analysis. I know you have recently received your GC but you are still contributing and a part of IV community that's really commendable !! Wish each one of us would/should do that.
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  #6237 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 04:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sanhari View Post
Pappu, If IV is in constant discussion and working on getting the priority dates determined, why don't IV also propose to use FIFO on the priority date, which will be fair for everyone, helping the EB3 folks who are in the line for a long long time. You may think that I am talking on my own perspective, well I am waiting for almost a decade in this process watching people who came much later and even got their citizenship, so it's okay to vent out somewhere some time . Thank you and appreciate all your and IV's efforts.
One cannot ignore the 3 catagories and give based on just priority date and merging 3 catagories. It is against the law. To do that law has to be changed via a bill.
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  #6238 (permalink)  
Old 06-21-2012, 06:22 PM
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Default Question on EB2-I

Teddy,
Did you mean that EB2-I PD will barely cross 2007 during the period 2012 Oct to 2013-Sep without the HR 3012? If I read this incorrectly, then where will be EB2-I during the period 2012-Oct and 2013-Sep?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
....
Unfortunately with the current situation it might take the entire next year to barely cross 2007 for EB2 I/C, this is just my own initial assessment lets see how things go by. Personally for you mzc123 I believe you will be greened in Oct 2012, EB2 I/C date should be 01-Aug-2007.
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  #6239 (permalink)  
Old 06-22-2012, 12:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
It will take 3 years for both EB2 I/C and EB3-I to catch up with ROW. EB2 as a whole being current is a very distant possibility being a moving target. Recently perms went up so that target went even further. If we have 30K SOFAD for the next 5-6 years uninterrupted then its a possibility otherwise even if 1 year goes bad the target moves further. USCIS / DOS may have it current if they like to have a grand intake but to have EB2 current in terms of approvals is very far. The current inventory that we have for EB2 I/C will easily sustain till Oct - Dec 2014. In EB2 you can expect GC though by the current standards in 5 years, the headwinds for 2013 however are extremely bad.
Hey Teddy ... congrats on getting greened ...

It's been quite some time that you have updated the first post of this thread .... Now that we heard Mr. Grassley speak up on HR3012, can you update the post by doing some analysis assuming HR3012 will fly in the next few weeks ? Thank you !
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  #6240 (permalink)  
Old 06-22-2012, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by flthere View Post
Now that we heard Mr. Grassley speak up on HR3012,
Where did you hear? What did you hear?
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