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  #6316 (permalink)  
Old 08-09-2012, 08:44 AM
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Originally Posted by billu View Post
any predictions for FY2013 by the experts based on latest DD?
Demand data only has the post-adjudication cases for which a visa number is been requested. Therefore we cannot be sure how many more cases are pending adjudication. The next DD should contain higher numbers than what is there at present. Therefore I will wait until October for them to release the next DD and the inventory before any assessments could be made. As of now the belief is that the dates might remain at 'U' for the rest of the year.
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  #6317 (permalink)  
Old 08-10-2012, 11:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by billu View Post
any predictions for FY2013 by the experts based on latest DD?
Any FY 2013 predictions from forum experts?
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  #6318 (permalink)  
Old 08-10-2012, 12:44 PM
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Originally Posted by kevin08 View Post
Any FY 2013 predictions from forum experts?
oh teddy teddy, oh teddy teddy
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  #6319 (permalink)  
Old 08-10-2012, 01:08 PM
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Thanks fatboysam, first letís see what this VB for September has to say. Couple of facts
- The numbers will be in short supply by now.
- For Eb2 it is very important to see that EB1 does not retrogress.
- Starting in FY 2013 we have a backlog of 6-8K for ROW which will take 1 full quarter to literally clear.
- HR 3012 will have a very big bearing on how the upcoming year will progress for both EB2 and Eb3.
- One interesting thing though about the new perm data the numbers are very heavily skewed towards India this will have a bearing on Eb2 ROW future filings.
- EB3 has entered a very dense zone without HR 3012 the movement will just be 1 week realistic to 2 weeks optimistic the density really rises as we approach December.
- Come 01-Oct Eb2 India date will be set at 01-AUG-2007 most likely, expect very little action without HR 3012.
- For the upcoming VB I think 2 weeks of movement is possible for EB3-I to grab maximum number of cases prior to the year closure.
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  #6320 (permalink)  
Old 08-10-2012, 01:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ascetic View Post
Demand data only has the post-adjudication cases for which a visa number is been requested. Therefore we cannot be sure how many more cases are pending adjudication. The next DD should contain higher numbers than what is there at present. Therefore I will wait until October for them to release the next DD and the inventory before any assessments could be made. As of now the belief is that the dates might remain at 'U' for the rest of the year.
Thatís very true; the next inventory should be the best indicator of the true volume of the filings till 01-May-2010. Right now the processing for EB3 (especially ROW) and EB1 appears to be going at a decent pace and older cases are being cleared.
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  #6321 (permalink)  
Old 08-10-2012, 11:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Thatís very true; the next inventory should be the best indicator of the true volume of the filings till 01-May-2010. Right now the processing for EB3 (especially ROW) and EB1 appears to be going at a decent pace and older cases are being cleared.
While I agree that inventory will be better in the next update, keep in mind that CO did say USCIS would continue pre adjudication and keep cases ready for having the pipeline ready to go. So we should keep seeing DD numbers go up for EB2 for another VB release or two.
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  #6322 (permalink)  
Old 08-11-2012, 12:08 PM
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Default mystery of delayed Sep. Bulletin!!

just a word about Sept. visa bulletin. Normally VBs are posted by 10th of the month and most often a day after the DD. Is there anything more to the Sept. bulletin or just a procedural delay?
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  #6323 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2012, 10:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Thanks fatboysam, first letís see what this VB for September has to say. Couple of facts
- The numbers will be in short supply by now.
- For Eb2 it is very important to see that EB1 does not retrogress.
- Starting in FY 2013 we have a backlog of 6-8K for ROW which will take 1 full quarter to literally clear.
- HR 3012 will have a very big bearing on how the upcoming year will progress for both EB2 and Eb3.
- One interesting thing though about the new perm data the numbers are very heavily skewed towards India this will have a bearing on Eb2 ROW future filings.
- EB3 has entered a very dense zone without HR 3012 the movement will just be 1 week realistic to 2 weeks optimistic the density really rises as we approach December.
- Come 01-Oct Eb2 India date will be set at 01-AUG-2007 most likely, expect very little action without HR 3012.
- For the upcoming VB I think 2 weeks of movement is possible for EB3-I to grab maximum number of cases prior to the year closure.
Visa Bulletin For September 2012

September VB is out, good to see EB1 as current and EB2 ROW still available. Next milestone is when they announce that numbers ae over for the year. For EB1 still cases filed as far back as 2011 are being approved.
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  #6324 (permalink)  
Old 08-13-2012, 07:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Visa Bulletin For September 2012

September VB is out, good to see EB1 as current and EB2 ROW still available. Next milestone is when they announce that numbers ae over for the year. For EB1 still cases filed as far back as 2011 are being approved.
What a disgusting page
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  #6325 (permalink)  
Old 08-14-2012, 04:04 PM
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Quick question to the gurus in this forum.

My PD is Dec 2010.
Seeing the EB2 Demand Data below from the PDF, there are at least 26275 people ahead of me in India queue and probably more if more people port from EB3.
I see that quota per country is only 3000
Does that mean I have to wait 10 years?
I think I am not considering something.
If HR3012 is not passed what would the quota be for India for next year?


Cumulative
Demand

Prior To China India ROW Total
January 1, 2008 800 4,900 25 5,725
January 1, 2009 3,650 17,700 50 21,400
January 1, 2010 5,625 26,275 250 32,150
January 1, 2012 6,025 28,250 2,775 37,050


Notes:
- All totals are approximate values
- Categories not listed are "current"
- Data as of August 8, 2012
The imposition of cut-off dates for some categories/countries has limited the amount of applicants who have
been able to file for adjustment of status with USCIS, and such applicants would not be included in the above
totals. In addition, new applicants are constantly becoming eligible for processing in categories for which cutoff dates do not apply, or for a category other than that which they initially filed for status. Therefore, the
above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand. These totals only
represent the amount of demand which was taken into consideration during the determination of the monthly
cut-off dates.
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  #6326 (permalink)  
Old 08-14-2012, 04:15 PM
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Theoritically you need to wait for 10 + years. Practically , visas not used by other groups (EB1, EB4, EB5 and EB-2 ROW) flows into EB2-I and EB2-C . so EB2-I/C sees a leap forward sometime in 3rd and 4th quarter .
My conservative guess is , EB2-I will cross June 2008 by end of next fiscal (Sept 2013) unless Teddy's calculations point to some other direction.
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  #6327 (permalink)  
Old 08-14-2012, 04:32 PM
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Thanks for the reply.
June 2008 sounds bad in 1 year.
I am hoping after that it will move faster since most people from 2008-2010 will get their GCs soon.

I missed the May 2010 by 6 months.
I know it is not as bad but the most frustrating thing is that my PD should have been 2009 except my lawyer did not file labor correctly and had to refile in 2010 and it took months to get it approved.

Will we get better idea of the demand next month?
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  #6328 (permalink)  
Old 08-15-2012, 02:09 PM
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Not to rain on your parade, but the count that you see in the current bulletin is only for people who have their priority dates prior to May 2010 and who were able to successfully file their application. There will approx 8k additional numbers between May 2010 and Dec 2010 and that is a conservative estimate. On average you should assume about 4-5 years processing time for an EB2 green card. Of course a lot depends on the number of visas used up by other categories, but considering the up ward movement of the market, I do not think there is going to be a lot of spill over.

Just my 2 cents.
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  #6329 (permalink)  
Old 08-15-2012, 05:16 PM
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Come to the Rally.. End the guess work for good.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jindhal View Post
Not to rain on your parade, but the count that you see in the current bulletin is only for people who have their priority dates prior to May 2010 and who were able to successfully file their application. There will approx 8k additional numbers between May 2010 and Dec 2010 and that is a conservative estimate. On average you should assume about 4-5 years processing time for an EB2 green card. Of course a lot depends on the number of visas used up by other categories, but considering the up ward movement of the market, I do not think there is going to be a lot of spill over.

Just my 2 cents.
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  #6330 (permalink)  
Old 08-17-2012, 10:01 AM
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Default Cut off

Is there a palce to track how these cutoff dates and numbers are changing when they release the demand numbers every month ?

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Empl...utOffDates.pdf

It would nice to see some trends and 'try' to figure out stuff.

My PD is Dec 8th 2002 EB3. I am keeping my fingers crossed. Man, what a journey
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