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  #6811 (permalink)  
Old 11-05-2013, 09:48 AM
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Default gustimate

Quote:
Originally Posted by ujayra01 View Post
You're giving hope now. When do you think Dec 03 becomes current for EB3. Next August?
I would say third quarter of this year govt. year. That would be April visa bulletin. By August we could reach middle of 2004 and even beyond.

Just for your kind information, only the first prediction is free. And there is no refund on incorrect predictions.
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  #6812 (permalink)  
Old 11-05-2013, 09:52 AM
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Default incomplete data

Your calculation is wrong, since you have not included porting, going back to India, getting GC thru other means (family, business) etc.

Since EB3-I has been rotting for several years, those two numbers are pretty huge.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rb_newsletter View Post
Not prediction. Just presenting numbers.

EB I-485 inventory released in Oct-2012 states:
............Total EB3-I = 47354
............Total EB2-I = 42373


EB I-485 inventory released in Oct-2013 states:
............Total EB3-I = 34336
............Total EB2-I = 32539


If someone files 485 and gets it approved before inventory release we won't even see them in numbers. So total GCs approved in fiscal year 2013 should be higher than the numbers shown below.
............Total EB3-I approved in 2013 = 47354 - 34336 = 13018
............Total EB2-I approved in 2013 = 42373 - 32539 = 9834

2013 EB3-I quota (a.k.a ceiling) is 3163 as stated in the demand data. So
............EB3-I SOFAD = total approved - quota = 13018 - 3163 = 9855

2013 EB2-I quota (a.k.a ceiling) is 3163 as stated in the demand data. So
............EB2-I SOFAD = total approved - quota = 9834 - 3163 = 6671

Now I will leave it to the forum to interpret the numbers.
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  #6813 (permalink)  
Old 11-05-2013, 12:27 PM
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Default So where did these applicants disappear

I am lost! So where are all these 9855+6671 applicants gone? You mean more than 16,500 people moved back to India, or got GC from some other means? Is this possible, or something else is implied?



Quote:
Originally Posted by h1techSlave View Post
Your calculation is wrong, since you have not included porting, going back to India, getting GC thru other means (family, business) etc.

Since EB3-I has been rotting for several years, those two numbers are pretty huge.
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  #6814 (permalink)  
Old 11-05-2013, 06:44 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by spulugur View Post
This is reduction in inventory - not approval count. The reduced EB3 numbers include portings and related inventory adjustment.
Yes I completely agree with you. It should be called as Inventory-Reduction. So

Inventory-Reduction == approval + denial + withdrawal + abandoning + porting-to-higher-EB-category + obtaining-GC-thru-other-means + etc.

Whether we call it as Inventory-Reduction or other names, the fact is EB3-I trend looks better.
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  #6815 (permalink)  
Old 11-05-2013, 07:29 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by h1techSlave View Post
Your calculation is wrong, since you have not included porting, going back to India, getting GC thru other means (family, business) etc.

Since EB3-I has been rotting for several years, those two numbers are pretty huge.
My friend,
Most of the time I am wrong, that's why I am still waiting in GC line

That was not my calculation. Big tables in I-485 inventory report was cumbersome to understand for average joe like me. So I wanted to understand the data for myself and put this together. After finishing I noticed it is easily readable, so I wanted to share with others.

In whole, I agree with you; porting or other means of getting GC should not be ignored. I interpreted your comment positively and posted the below reply to spulugur.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rb_newsletter View Post
Yes I completely agree with you. It should be called as Inventory-Reduction. So

Inventory-Reduction == approval + denial + withdrawal + abandoning + porting-to-higher-EB-category + obtaining-GC-thru-other-means + etc.

Whether we call it as Inventory-Reduction or other names, the fact is EB3-I trend looks better.

2013 EB3-I quota (a.k.a ceiling) is 3163 as stated in the demand data. So 9855 more EB3-I applications reduced than quota
....Inventory-Reduction == approval + denial + withdrawal + abandoning + porting + GC-thru-other-means + etc. == 13018
.... --> Inventory-Reduction - quota = 13018 - 3163 = 9855 more EB3-I apps reduced more than quota

2013 EB2-I quota (a.k.a ceiling) is 3163 as stated in the demand data. So 6671 more EB3-I applications reduced than quota
....Inventory-Reduction == approval + denial + withdrawal + abandoning + porting + GC-thru-other-means + etc. == 9834
.... --> Inventory-Reduction - quota = 9834 - 3163 = 6671 more EB2-I apps reduced more than quota
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  #6816 (permalink)  
Old 11-06-2013, 10:23 AM
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Default the SOFAD numbers were wrong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gc_rip View Post
I am lost! So where are all these 9855+6671 applicants gone? You mean more than 16,500 people moved back to India, or got GC from some other means? Is this possible, or something else is implied?
Nothing is implied in my message. I just wanted to say that Rb_newsletter has wrongly put all 9855 as SOFAD (number overflowing into EB3-I from other categories). If you read the rest of the messages in this thread, Rb_newsletter is acknowledging this and has provided more information.

My additional comments are below:
Total reduction in EB3-I = 13018
EB3-I quota = 3163
Porting = 6000 (based on info available in this thread and similar threads)
GC by other means, denial etc = 1000
SOFAD (spill over from other categories) = 13018 - (3163 + 6000 + 1000) = 2878

This is a very hopeful situation, since it indicates that even with out SOFAD, we are okay. The dates will move. The porting numbers are likely to be even stronger in the newer PDs.

The only real risk for us is that USCIS screws up and does not process GC on time and waste numbers or takes too much time to approve AP/EAD etc. This is where IV comes into picture. Right now, IV is the only goon in town who can speak to USCIS on behalf of us. So, please keep supporting IV in what ever way you can.

Touch wood: I would not be surprised to see EB3-I current by Sept 2015. Touch wood again
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  #6817 (permalink)  
Old 11-06-2013, 12:43 PM
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Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by DallasBlue View Post
Why would the pending eb3I cases go up for 2004 feb and march by like 800 cases ?

Pending 1-485 EB3-I inventory numbers as reported by uscis


Months Jul'13 Oct'13

2003 Oct 899 877
2003 Nov 850 823
2003 Dec 899 885
2004 Jan 772 753
2004 Feb 696 1,109
2004 Mar 923 1,437
2004 Apr 916 914

ToTal 5955 6798




Anyone can think of a reason why it would go up ?

here are the links
OCT:
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...er_01-2013.pdf

JULY:
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...07-17-2013.pdf

All:
http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/gree...-485-inventory
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  #6818 (permalink)  
Old 11-06-2013, 12:50 PM
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Default

Many people upgraded to EB3 from EB3 Other, when Perm process first started in 2004. It took them a decade to add them to inventory.
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  #6819 (permalink)  
Old 11-06-2013, 01:00 PM
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Question

Quote:
Originally Posted by imh1b View Post
Many people upgraded to EB3 from EB3 Other, when Perm process first started in 2004. It took them a decade to add them to inventory.
is "EB3 other " category different than the one listed in the report as "OTHER(EW)" ?
if not , then , it could be some other reason.
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  #6820 (permalink)  
Old 11-06-2013, 01:10 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DallasBlue View Post
is "EB3 other " category different than the one listed in the report as "OTHER(EW)" ?
if not , then , it could be some other reason.
This EB3 other is for low skilled labor like cooks, construction workers, drivers etc. It is more backlogged than EB3 India and has lesser number of visas available. These guys do not even get spillovers and are not seen on forums due to their education level and work. Most undocumented immigration can be stopped by giving all spillovers to them without country quota and border security.

EB3 , 2 and 1 live a good life even on H1B. But these guys have a difficult life. Nobody pays attention to them. If someone goes and meet the cook inside or waiters you may come across such people and feel pity for them.
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  #6821 (permalink)  
Old 11-06-2013, 01:25 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by DallasBlue View Post
Pending 1-485 EB3-I inventory numbers as reported by uscis


Months Jul'13 Oct'13

2003 Oct 899 877
2003 Nov 850 823
2003 Dec 899 885
2004 Jan 772 753
2004 Feb 696 1,109
2004 Mar 923 1,437
2004 Apr 916 914

ToTal 5955 6798




Anyone can think of a reason why it would go up ?

here are the links
OCT:
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...er_01-2013.pdf

JULY:
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/f...07-17-2013.pdf

All:
Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory | USCIS
Folks with these priority dates missing the 2007 boat to file for I485. The number shouldn't be significant though.
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  #6822 (permalink)  
Old 11-07-2013, 02:31 PM
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Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dessiminator View Post
Folks who are not applied a I-485 does not count in Inventory data.. correct me if it is wrong.
Happy to let you know that I go my gc approved

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  #6823 (permalink)  
Old 11-08-2013, 01:04 AM
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congrats deepakd
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  #6824 (permalink)  
Old 11-08-2013, 10:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dessiminator View Post
Folks who are not applied a I-485 does not count in Inventory data.. correct me if it is wrong.
People who've ported from EB3 to EB2 are counted twice in the inventory according to CO. That's the only reason for numbers to go up without any PD movement.
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  #6825 (permalink)  
Old 11-08-2013, 10:32 AM
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Default

I'm not fully awake yet, but there are interesting things in this latest report. Why is EB3 April 2001 so big an outlier? 456 cases still waiting for a number?! Even though that date has been current for a long time now. The rest of 2001 is in the low double digits or single digits, averaging ~15 per month which can be attributed to RFEs and other administrative wait-related issues. But 456 is way out of that.
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