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  #1186 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2011, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Honda View Post
After a long time i saw your message. Any predictions for EB3 VDLRAO?

Thanks in Advance.
If I say any movement for EB3 it would be giving a false hope as there would not be much movement with the available 2.8K visas. Best bet would be porting.
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  #1187 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2011, 04:17 PM
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Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
If I say any movement for EB3 it would be giving a false hope as there would not be much movement with the available 2.8K visas. Best bet would be porting.
What you are expecting for EB2 movement?
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  #1188 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2011, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted by gc_on_demand View Post
I would say forget about PWMB now. Time has gone since they will not be able to file and get approval if date move in July. Time is too short for them.

so total demand is 32.5 k ( dos 's known demand ) + 6k porting = 38.5 k

Now supply worst case : 12k ( Eb1 ) + 8k ( eb5 ) = 20k

(2) 12k ( Eb1) + 8k ( Eb2 ) + 8k ( Eb5 ) = 28k

(3) 24k ( E1 ) + 8k ( E2 ) + 8k (E5 ) = 40k

That will consume all known demand + porting. Now they won't get more than 6k until July 2012 so they will not move date untill July 2012 and if they don't by then its too late to use spill over from 2012 .
This sounds about right per known numbers calculations. However the reality lies somewhere near item 2 above. EB2 may well get ~30K visas this year, just enough to kiss the known backlog of 35K. But come December 2011, DOS will need to start building a realistic EB2 pipeline.
They can not hide behind the somewhat unbelievable excuse of "upgraders/porters" consuming majority of visa supply.
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  #1189 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2011, 05:32 PM
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Default DOS States 2 weeks movement in June 2011

Our overly optimistic predictions have hardly ever worked in the past . I have following it since 2006 so I am say by experience . Don't give me Red's as I also admit I would be benefited had our predictions come true.

Here is what the May 2011 Visa bulletin said and this is exactly what will happen .


Visa Bulletin For May 2011


Employment Second: Demand by applicants who are “upgrading” their status from Employment Third to Employment Second preference is very high, but the exact amount is not known. Such “upgrades” are in addition to the known demand already reported, and make it very difficult to predict ultimate demand based on forward movement of the China and India cut-off dates. While thousands of “otherwise unused” numbers will be available for potential use without regard to the China and India Employment Second preference per-country annual limits, it is not known how the “upgrades” will ultimately impact the cut-offs for those two countries. (The allocation of “otherwise unused” numbers is discussed below.)

China: none to three weeks expected through July. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.

India: One or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable. No August or September estimate is possible at this time.
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  #1190 (permalink)  
Old 05-05-2011, 05:37 PM
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Originally Posted by Honda View Post
What you are expecting for EB2 movement?
I am expecting about a 2 year movement for EB2 I&C by coming Sep. Let's see.
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  #1191 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2011, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted by vdlrao View Post
I am expecting about a 2 year movement for EB2 I&C by coming Sep. Let's see.
I agree with you overall that we are going to see a 2 year movement pretty soon because once 07/07 backlog is over this summer, they will need a pipeline of 25K EB2I 485s to clear the next spillover season. I differ with you in timeline though. My most optimistic guess is that they will reach 07/07 by end of this FY and will wait and see how the demand comes in. Once they have a handle on demand rate they will increase the date slowly after to make sure that they have a pipeline of 25K for EB2I for the next spillover season. That might mean moving it by 2 months every month until they have that pipeline. This way they will be ready for the spillover season without overtaxing USCIS.
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  #1192 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2011, 12:57 PM
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Default It doesn't work that way

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Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
I agree with you overall that we are going to see a 2 year movement pretty soon because once 07/07 backlog is over this summer, they will need a pipeline of 25K EB2I 485s to clear the next spillover season. I differ with you in timeline though. My most optimistic guess is that they will reach 07/07 by end of this FY and will wait and see how the demand comes in. Once they have a handle on demand rate they will increase the date slowly after to make sure that they have a pipeline of 25K for EB2I for the next spillover season. That might mean moving it by 2 months every month until they have that pipeline. This way they will be ready for the spillover season without overtaxing USCIS.
Lets say they clear all people upto 07/07 , and they have no pending I 485. They can't go by two month because they will have only 2800 visas until July 2012 and if they go 2 months in Oct 2011. They might be out of supply in Oct. Now without single visa available they cannot keep moving ahead because people who has choosen CP and are beyond 07/07 needs GC.

Also people who applied in Oct 2011 , will be ready to consume visa in atleast March 2012. Where they going to get visas for those ?

They simply have to advance dates in Spe 2011 and retrogress in Oct 2011. That way USCIS gets 25-35k 485s to work on. Even USCIS needs some buffer since so many people who had labor approved post 07/07 doesn't mean that they will be applying for I 485. Many left USA , many got married to US citizen , Many got laid off from company who applied labor and are in process of applying again. Many might be in EB2 but now with new company they are in EB3.

Even after applying I 485 so many road blocks ( Sec , name check ,FP , People might miss boat etc.. )

In short data from Labor department will not translate 100% into demand that DOS can use. I would say if they are expecting 30k spill over next year then date should be advance untill mid 2008 which will bring ( 24k I Eb2 and max 10k EB2 C cases ) which may work with some porting and PWMB cases . that way next year ( upto 07/12 dates can be somewhere in early to mid 2007 and from 07/12 date can advance )

If they don't do that then they will open gate ( C for Eb2 ) in July 2012 and USCIS will approve case left and right in Sep 2012. people from 2010 may get it but people from 2007 may not ) which can create chaos and I hope they will not do it.

Third option is they don't advance date until 07/12 and even they advance 07/12 uscis cannot process new flood of files and in sep USCIS waste lots of spill over or spill them to family based quota.
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  #1193 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2011, 01:00 PM
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Default

DOS dilemma in the coming month

1. DOS has to rely on demand data to set PD for VB.
2. DOS wishes to have some inventory, as EB2I consume about 15K-30K per year
3. According to law, they can not move it fast after Sept 2011, as there will be visible demand > 2800 EB2I supply.
4. They will have to stay pretty much around the last PD in 2011 (Sept 2011 PD).
5. As inventory is getting low, DOS cannot still move PD too much according to law (point 3 above)
6. There could be a mess later 2012 as they have to consume all 20K EB2I from fall-down, etc. They don't want to make it Current, but move it just few months will waste visa numbers.

Something DOS might be considering
1. Since CIS needs 4 months to process, they can move PD to late 2007 or even 2008, to build inventory in July-Spet 2011 VB (ideally Sept 2011)
2. They then know demand till late 2007 or 2008
3. CIS will have plenty (but not millions, if PD made C) EB2I 485 to process
4. DOS can retrogress in Oct. 2011

Issues DOS/CIS has to work together
1. How to guarantee approval with FIFO, or just random for pre-adjudicated cases
2. Depending on visa usage from EB1/EB2 ROW, there could be people who have PD before the Sept 2011 VB PD, that won't get GC in Sept. Those people are pre-adjudicated as well.
3. Visa could be all used up in early Spet by all those pre-adjudicated, if they move PD after 07/2007

Safe route for DOS, and they might consider (they have smart people there, I am sure)
1. 07/2011 VB PD, move to 01/2007, so they can start use or EB1/Eb2ROW spillover to EB2I
2. 08/2011 VB PD (depending on 1), move to 01/2007 to 02/2007, to make sure visa asumption. Hopefully they can still have some supply to use
3. 09/2011 Since demand will be low (maybe a few K), and supply still have some, they can move PS further to 04/2008 (just random) to build demand without approving those application.
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  #1194 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2011, 01:39 PM
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Default Thanks GC_On_Demand and Rodnyb

Very interesting arguments. I hope DoS has smart enough people to figure this out and follow a well thought out strategy. Next few visa bulletins will tell us how they are thinking.

I was looking through historical data and was shocked to find that upto such recent past as Oct 2005, EB2 used to be C for everybody! Imagine that!!
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  #1195 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2011, 01:50 PM
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Default Funny

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Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
Very interesting arguments. I hope DoS has smart enough people to figure this out and follow a well thought out strategy. Next few visa bulletins will tell us how they are thinking.

I was looking through historical data and was shocked to find that upto such recent past as Oct 2005, EB2 used to be C for everybody! Imagine that!!
Its funny to see that we have gotton so used to seeing delays in terms of 8-10 years that 2005 seems recent past ... it is actually 6 years back in time . Quite an irony !
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  #1196 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2011, 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted by imdeng View Post
Very interesting arguments. I hope DoS has smart enough people to figure this out and follow a well thought out strategy. Next few visa bulletins will tell us how they are thinking.

I was looking through historical data and was shocked to find that upto such recent past as Oct 2005, EB2 used to be C for everybody! Imagine that!!
The dates till 2005 were current because the labor itself use to take 3-4 years to clear the backlog and once perm was introduced later the labor was processing quickly hence the dates started stopping and no CURRENT any more

Last edited by voicerj; 05-06-2011 at 02:55 PM.
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  #1197 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2011, 05:05 PM
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Originally Posted by voicerj View Post
The dates till 2005 were current because the labor itself use to take 3-4 years to clear the backlog and once perm was introduced later the labor was processing quickly hence the dates started stopping and no CURRENT any more
It was because of the AC21 act that allowed reuse of previous years' unused visas. That act was the last act passed by the Bill Clinton administration for immigrants in 2000. They were about 300,000 visas IIRC.
We have to work with the lawmakers to (at the very least) pass similar immediate relief proposals so that we can all get GCs.

Last edited by gc_peshwa; 05-06-2011 at 05:09 PM.
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  #1198 (permalink)  
Old 05-06-2011, 06:20 PM
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Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
I believe we will see atleast 1 month movement as we got only 4.5K out of the 12K allocation. Lets hope for the best.
Can I ask you how did you arrive at 4.5K ?

(I am thinking if DOS waits till May 13 or so before releasing June VB to better assess the demand one month movement is possible as you are saying )
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  #1199 (permalink)  
Old 05-07-2011, 10:32 AM
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Guys,

anyone knows what the procedure is for AC21 candidates - filed and approved LCA, 140 with one company and currently working for another. when the priority date becomes current, what needs to be done?
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  #1200 (permalink)  
Old 05-08-2011, 01:39 PM
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Default Processing Center

Processing center makes any difference ? I heard generally people goto TX or CA, and mine says CHICAGO PROCESSING CENTER. I understand that PD is what should be and is considered and want to confirm the same.
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