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  #1 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 12:20 PM
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Default EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II)

Following is the current trend based on the dashboard, and other news and information.

GC Issuance date based on 25K will be 15-DEC-2007 - 01-JAN-2008 by the end of FY 2012.

Next VB (Jan 2012) in all probability will be the final intake if HR-3012 does not go through.
Possibility 50% - 2 months of additional intake to move to 15th MAY to 01-JUN-2008 (This is purely if CO feels additional Intake is required, this scenario is possible if CO is projecting 30K SOFAD in that case he only has 2K buffer may need more).
Possibility 50% - Dates retrogress back, this would mean 16.5K Sofad now has to be adjusted in 8 bulletins; this may mean that the dates go back to somewhere Jun 2007 for the first batch.

The prediction for the next bulletin is purely based the fact that the Sofad for 2012 maybe around 25k. With the current intakes there is a 7K buffer so if CO wants more buffer then he will go for more intake, if he feels it’s sufficient it might be time to retrogress. In either case if the movement is guarded or dates retrogress we can logically expect the same cycle to occur every year Oct - Dec. however atleast for next month there will be another factor the HR 3012 factor based on likelihood of passage in the senate then I believe forward movement will not stop itself.

The 7K buffer is calculated as - 8.5K (Approved) + 3.5K (PWMB APR 15 - JUL 15) + 20K (@2500 PM Intake for 8 Months) - 25K (SOFAD)
If HR 3012 becomes the law of the land then EB2 I/C date will reach 01-JAN-2009 by the end of FY 2012.

- The current consumption is 8.5K; this is based on the fact that the October demand data showed 8.5K and looks like all preadjudicated cases from Jul 2007 are approved now. The demand data came down to 0 in December.
-We expect that 3.5K PWMB cases that have PD's between 15th Apr and 15th Jum would have been filed.
- This makes the demand + consumption pre Jul 15th 2007 = 12K. So to achieve 25K another 13K of intake is required.
- Porting I believe is just 3K per annum in fact the effective reduction in the EB3 inventory shows even less, however we must offset for local office cases that were added midyear. The inventory approach only helps to measure porting for preadjudicated cases only, post Jul 2007 the EB2 – EB3 ratio is 75-25 this accounts for porting for non preadjudicated cases. Most people post Jul 2007 did not have the benefit of EAD/AP and they have converted to EB2 already or are in the process. The ratio of 75-25 already accounts for this.
- For EB2 the dependent ratio is 2.125 this is under the assumption that people will be quite rarely single and 1 in 8 families are highly likely to have atleast 1 non-us born kid.
-The perm computations suggest that there may result in ~ 2200 EB2 I485's per month. Past history suggests a very good correlation between the number of I+C perms and I485’s with the correlation coefficient being 1. Now if we distribute porting evenly over the year we can approximate the density to 2500 per month. This works very well to the duration of Jul 2007 to Jul 2008. CP is quite small for EB2 I/C this may just add as a buffer to make the 2500 per month flat figure look centrist neither too liberal and nor too conservative.
Many people believe that there was demand destruction due to the bad market situation the ratio of 1 account for 38% demand destruction implicitly as 1 / 2.125 * .75 = .62. Most conservative calculations would only assume 20% demand destruction for all reasons.
.-With 8 months of intake from Jul 15 to Mar 15 the intake this far has been 20K.
- This means CO is still short of the 30K mark which we believe is last year’s SOFAD. There will be no movement in the next bulletin only if they intend to have a 0 buffer or expect less than 30K SOFAD, the dashboard model does suggest that the Sofad this year maybe 5k lesser due to the approval of 20K additional I140’s in the last more months assuming 50% of this was absorbed in FY 2011 (In the later part of the last quarter movement was extremely limited) and 50% will carry over to FY-2012.

DASHBOARD TREND
The USCIS dashboard (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm...91&charttype=1) trend is good in terms of increased efficiency but quite bad for SOFAD. The backlog has come down from 25K to 17K which means a reduction of 8K. Another interesting point to note is that Sep 2012 saw an almost unprecedented number of completions 12K compared to just 5K in Sep 2010, this was a time when the VB did not advance for EB2 I/C in 2011.
All in all if the backlog reduction for I140 happens at this kind of pace we will not see 30K SOFAD this year by any chance. This will now significantly slow down actual EB2 I/C approvals that are Spillover dependent because they may have enough Eb2 I/C cases. An interesting thing could be how much of the impact of this was absorbed in FY 2011 itself because quite literally some of the concurrently filed cases for EB2 I/C cases would have been approved immediately after the I140 would have been approved. Assuming that 50% of the impact will be felt in 2012 SOFAD may come down by atleast 5K assuming the correction in backlog by ~ 12K in the preceding 3 months (I140 normally takes 3 months to hit I485). By this CO may have enough people by the Mar 15th 2008 date assuming the SOFAD expected is 25K and not 30K. The dates can move forward in the next VB only if the target for SOFAD is 30K, so I would scale down my expectations to maximum of 1.5-2 months in the best case scenario, there may also be a chance that in the next bulletin they may now scale the dates back for actual approvals assuming the intake is sufficient in the worst case scenario.

TREND
Following is a compare of the EB2 row and EB1 trend so far. For simplicity I just assumed that Nov is done for approvals.
EB1
2011 - 10+14+13 = 37
2012 - 7+11+38 = 56
The number of Eb1c approvals is almost at 3 times of last year. EB1 A & b are still in early days. Most EB1c cases will use up more visas as these folks are less likely to have us born kids as a lot of them will be in the age group 35-40 when they would have filed I140 & I485. Most of Eb1c is from India, this trend correlates well with high i140 approvals in recent days.
EB2 ROW
2011 - 88
2012 - 37
EB2 row is significantly underperforming, row has a tendency to pick up later in the year, last year also row stated weak initially but picked up later. Overall as of now I feel that things that Eb2 Row decline and EB1 moving faster may just cancel each other.

I hope this is helpful, please use this information based on your individual judgment & discretion. Comments, critique, suggestions and corrections are welcome and are appreciated.

Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 12-01-2011 at 04:01 PM. Reason: Corrected Based On Feedback From Iyer & Akshaya
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 12:55 PM
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Friends welcome to EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II), this is a continuation from the previous blog. Lets focus here on numbers and facts only, looking forward to a great discussion.

Acronyms
SOFAD - Spillover Fall Across and Down
SO - Spillover
FA - Fall Across
FD - Fall Down
CD - Cutoff Date
PD - Priority Date
PD<CD (Priority Date within Cut Off Date)
CP - Consular Processing
PWMB - People w PD prior to July 07 who missed boat (i.e. 2007 July 485 Boat).

Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 11-26-2011 at 01:34 AM.
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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 12:56 PM
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Resereved for additional info.

Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 12-01-2011 at 04:02 PM.
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  #4 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 01:12 PM
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Teddy,
I had tried to evaluate some of the unknown factors, but came up with very optimistic figures. While this may be slightly off topic, it would certainly help in these calculations.Appreciate your review and analysis of this please.

We basically have 2 unknowns
1) Amount porting from EB3I to EB2I (lets call this P)
2) Local office count (lets call this L3 and L2 for EB3I and EB2I respectively)

I assumed that the percentage of local office counts for both EB2 and EB3 will be the same (lets call this C)

Now, the raw data I used was from:
Pending inventory list.
Pending EB3 till 2002 end as of 2009 end = 9731
Pending EB3 till 2002 end as of 2010 end = 8043
Pending EB2 till 2006 end as of 2009 end = 30092
Pending EB2 till 2006 end as of 2010 end = 14710
and from Visa Office 2010 report
Count of EB2 green cards processed = 20000
Count of EB3 green cards processed = 2800

From this, we can infer that:
Decrease in EB2 pending count = 20000-P-L2 = 20000-P-C*30092
Decrease in EB3 pending count = 20000-P-L3 = 2800+P-C*9731

This gives us 2 linear equations with 2 variables, the solution to which is:
C=0.143887 and P=288
First inference seems to show that there were around 15% "hidden" cases in local offices that were previously unaccounted for. But more interesting and what seems to be very good news is that there were only 288 portings from EB3I to EB2I. However, this seems too good to be true. Can anyone show me the fallacy here?

Potential fallacies, assumptions and my rationale for them, lacunae:
1) Are there any other unknown factors in my equations? One such may be the count of portings from EB2I to EB1I. I had disregarded this since I presumed this will be an insignificantly small a number.
2) Are there any other unknown factors in my equations? One such may be the count of dropouts (i.e. abandonments) from EB2I and EB3I each. I had disregarded both these since I presumed this will be an insignificantly small a number.
3) I had presumed that CP % of EB2I and EB3I will be the same. While there is no real numerical basis for this assumption, I proceeded with this since I do not see any reason for bias between EB2I and EB3I at the local offices. Over a period of tme and over large numbers I feel this is bound to even out. This is a statistical certainty. This is similar to the analogy of coin tossing: Toss a coin 10 times and there is a significant probability that 40% or less will be heads. However, repeat the same experiment with count of 1000 and the probability of this event will be small enough to mathematically discount as impossible.

Any other weaknesses or misses?
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 01:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
With ~ 24 K SOFAD we may reach Mid March 2007. Now lets look at all possible scenario’s.
Worst possible case is that we have 26.5K SOFAd just like last year, this will put us at 01-JAN02007.
how can 24k SOFAD move dates to March 2007, while 26.5K SOFAD moves to JAN 2007?
Teddy, can you explain the above discrepancy?
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 01:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belmontboy View Post
how can 24k SOFAD move dates to March 2007, while 26.5K SOFAD moves to JAN 2007?
Teddy, can you explain the above discrepancy?
Thanks for pointing out still in WIP I will correct the table as well. 26.5 K takes us to 01 Jan 2007 while ~ 34K takes us over March to 01-APR-2007. I will be making corresctions to the first post based on the latest data .

Last edited by TeddyKoochu; 02-10-2011 at 01:28 PM.
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 01:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by belmontboy View Post
how can 24k SOFAD move dates to March 2007, while 26.5K SOFAD moves to JAN 2007?
Teddy, can you explain the above discrepancy?

I think it was a typo by Teddy. He meant 34K instead of 24K SOFAD. That is what he was discussing just one line before mentioning 24K.
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 01:33 PM
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Default Thanks Teddy!

Man, try to push it to July 2007 by all means I know you'd like that too
Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyKoochu View Post
Thanks for pointing out still in WIP I will correct the table as well. 26.5 K takes us to 01 Jan 2007 while ~ 34K takes us over March to 01-APR-2007. I will be making corresctions to the first post based on the latest data .
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  #9 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 03:02 PM
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Teddy Thanks for all the calculations !!
I hope SOFAD is maximum so that every one can get greened :-)
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Old 02-10-2011, 05:13 PM
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Given below is the present position:

Comparison of cumulative demand data for EB2 India, since Oct 2010:

Source: EB2-I USCIS Data - Immigration Wiki

Month Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11

CY-2006 13125 13150 13125 13150 13175 13200 13200
CY-2007 22850 22850 22825 22900 22975 22950 22950
CY-2010 22925 23000 22925 23000 23025 23050 23050

The above data can be interpreted that EB3I to EB2I porting happens and that demand matches or almost over takes the supply/ availability of visas. From the above, I conclude that EB3I to EB2I porting is about 260 to 270 per month.


The published Visa Bulletin Priority Dates since are given below:

Month EB2-CH EB2-IN
04/01/2011 07/22/2006 05/08/2006
03/01/2011 07/08/2006 05/08/2006
02/01/2011 07/01/2006 05/08/2006
01/01/2011 06/22/2006 05/08/2006
12/01/2010 06/08/2006 05/08/2006
11/01/2010 06/01/2006 05/08/2006
10/01/2010 05/22/2006 05/08/2006

Source: Past Visa Bulletin Data - Immigration Wiki


With the PD announcements in every month visa bulletin and I-485 Inventory data, one would be able to calculate Visa Demand data position(pending applications), month wise.

The demand data position for April 2011, as calculated by me, is given below:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 565 4978
Aug-06 1677 693 7348
Sep-06 1745 773 9866
Oct-06 1747 732 12345
Nov-06 1737 667 14749
Dec-06 1881 770 17400

Jan-07 1540 654 19594
Feb-07 1444 615 21653


Every month USCIS allocates 233* visas each to EB2 India and EB2 China, as part of normal quota. So there will be 1000 visas issued each to India and China in next 3 months from April 2011 to June 2011.

*Using 140,00 total EB visas -

EB2 receives 28.6% of the 140,000 so the 7% limit for EB2-I is (140,000 * 0.286) * 0.07 = 2,803 visas.

Monthly quota = 2803/12 = 233

While EB2 China would move to 15th Aug 2006 by June 2011 VB, EB2 India would continue to stagnate at 8-May-2006 due to porting of EB3 to EB2.

My guesstimate for July 2011 demand data may look like smth as given below:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 0 4413
Aug-06 1677 558 6648
Sep-06 1745 773 9166
Oct-06 1747 732 11645
Nov-06 1737 667 14049
Dec-06 1881 770 16700

Jan-07 1540 654 18894
Feb-07 1444 615 20953

With my limited experience of last few years in dealing with USCIS and DOS, I am aware that the spillover calculations start happening in Q4, commencing from July. Further, there are resources constraint in USCIS centers. First 2 months of the Q4 (July and Aug), spillover allocation happen in full swing. Last month of the Quarter, remaining spillover is allocated.

The spillover whenever happens, it goes to the worst affected country, which is India.

If there is no spillover happening in July 2011, EB2 India and China would continue to get 233 visas every month for 3 months from July 2011 to Sep 2011. In the normal course, EB2 China would reach 15-Sep-2006.

After allocating all regular visas, the visa demand position may look smth like given below, for allocating Spillover visas:

Month India China Cum Total
May-06 1212 0 1212
Jun-06 1696 0 2908
Jul-06 1505 0 4413
Aug-06 1677 0 6090
Sep-06 1745 631 8466
Oct-06 1747 732 10945
Nov-06 1737 667 13349
Dec-06 1881 770 16000

Jan-07 1540 654 18194
Feb-07 1444 615 20253

I made assumption from the past trend about the availability of spillover visas. While EB5 spillover about 8K to 9K is certain, EB1 is not certain and EB2ROW to EB2 Ind/China is estimated to be 10K to 12K.

Then there are also People Who Missed the Boat, which I understand USCIS does not take into account for deciding the Cut Off date.

There are no clear or close figures available to the public for calculating availability of spillover visas for the current year in the absence of issue of visas country wise against demand. The data is available and it is closely guarded within DOS and USCIS departments.

If spillover is----------- Likely Cut-off date (for EB2 India & China)
8K----------------------30-Sep-06
10K--------------------- 22-Oct-06
12K--------------------- 15-Nov-06
14K--------------------- 8-Dec-06
16K--------------------- 31-Dec-06
18K--------------------- 31-Jan-07
20K--------------------- 28-Feb-07
22K--------------------- 31-Mar-07
24K--------------------- 30-Apr-07

If the spillover visas are about 16K, that would cover till Dec 2006. If it is 20K visas, it would cover till Feb 2007. If it is 24K visas, cut off would reach April 2007.

Last edited by gcwait2007; 03-19-2011 at 05:20 PM. Reason: updated
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  #11 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 05:21 PM
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Good job Teddy.
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  #12 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 05:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leo07 View Post
Man, try to push it to July 2007 by all means I know you'd like that too
I concur this
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  #13 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 05:34 PM
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Keep up the good work Teddy
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  #14 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 05:49 PM
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Thumbsup Teddy!..Fingers X'd
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  #15 (permalink)  
Old 02-10-2011, 06:12 PM
Senior Member
Priority Date
:
Oct-06
Category
:
EB2
I140 Mailed Date
:
02/10/2007
Chargeability
:
India
Processing Stage
:
I-485
I485 Mailed Date
:
07/29/2007
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Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 130
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gcwait2007 View Post
Given below is the present position:

The availability spillover visas: 8K+4K+10K = 22K
USCIS will try to split the spillover over 3 months, each month allocating 8K visas.
For July 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Sep-2006 (about 8K visas)
For August 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be 22-Dec-2006 (about 8K visas).
For Sept 2011 Visa Bulletin, EB2 India and China will be either end of Feb 2007 (about 4.5K visas) or end of March 2007 (about 6.5K visas).
Very good summary. I think this is inline with QESHMK, Teddy and other experts calculation.
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