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Old 12-03-2009, 06:56 PM
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Default Ground Reality for EB3 applicants

Following text is pasted from ImmInfo Newsletter: Just How Bad is the Backlog?



letís now take a look at the more complex problem of EB3 backlogs. Again, we will use the backlog information for EB3 visas shown on the CIS website, arranged, by priority dates, area of charge and year:

? Not able to paste the table ?
but this is available at this link


Availability is a bit more complex in this situation. Recall that the third employment based preference category (EB3) is allocated roughly 40,000 visas annually. These visas are issued on the basis of those with the oldest priority dates receiving visas first. There is, however, a single state limit that prohibits no more than seven (7%) of the total number of visas from being issues to persons born in a single country. This means that no more than 9,800 visas may be issued to persons born in any single country. Note that it is country of birth that determines chargeability, not country of citizenship.

This 9,800 limit applies to all employment based applicants from a single country, including first, second, third, fourth, and fifth preferences. When a country is subject to the single state limit, the 9,800 maximum is divided the same way that the five preferences are divided within the overall EB quota. That is, each of the first three preferences receive 28.8% of the total. For EB3 purposes, this means that there is a maxium allocation of about 2,822 visas annually for each country subject to the single state limit, provided there are that many applicants with sufficiently early priority dates.

Letís take a quick look at how this gets applied to the quota. We start with an overall allocation of 40,000 visas. The single state limits are not guarantees. They are maximum limits imposed on people born in those countries, within the overall limit. Within the 40,000 annual allocation, visas first go to those with the oldest priority dates. If, however, 2,822 people from a single country (including dependents) receive visas in a single fiscal year, then no additional applicants chargeable to that country may receive visas until the new quota becomes available in the next fiscal year. Unlike the second employment based preference category (EB2), there are no unused visas from the Worldwide category to be made available to the single state limited countries.

At the end of the first quarter of fiscal year 2010, the Worldwide EB3 cutoff date stands at June 1, 2001. By law, no more than 27% of the overall quota may be allocated in any of the first three quarters. This means that approximately 10,800 visas will be used in EB3 during the first quarter. This figure is greater than the total number of EB3 AOS applicants shown in the CIS backlog charts (8,884) for all applicants with priority dates earlier than 2002 and is further evidence that those charts do not reflect the full size of the demand.

The Visa Office had earlier said that they expected to see the cutoff date for Worldwide EB3 move into early 2006 by spring of next year. This seems likely to happen. For single state limited country applicants, however, the story is very different.

For EB3, the maximum number of visas that may be issued in a single year to applicants from single state limited countries is 2,822 visas. Initially, India and possibly Mexico will have individual cutoff dates that will lag behind the Worldwide EB3 cutoff date. As the Worldwide cutoff date advances, Mexico should catch up, but then the Philippines will start to lag.

The country that is going to see the worst delays, by far, is India. Letís take another look at the CIS reported demand for EB3 India AOS applicants, understanding that these numbers represent minimum demand and that the actual demand is greater:


? Not able to paste the table ?
but this is available at this link

If we subtract 2,822 visas per year from these total, we see that all of the pre-2002 India EB3 cases shown here should be resolved before the end of FY 2010. This is where things slow down. At the start of FY 2011, there would still be 7,756 AOS applicants in line with priority dates for 2002. Reducing this number at a rate of 2,822 visas per year it will take almost three and a half years to eliminate all of the currently pending (and reported) Indian EB3 adjustment of status cases. This would be some time in the late winter or early spring of 2015 . At that point, the Indian EB3 cutoff date would likely move into 2003. At that rate, it would then be approximately 2020 before the cutoff date would move into 2004. There isnít much point in taking this exercise any further. It is obvious that Indian EB3 is not going to go anywhere absent legislative relief.

Indian EB3 applicants have three options:

1. Stay the course and wait.
2. Hope for legislative relief.
3. Find a way to upgrade to EB2.

Unfortunately, there isnít a fourth option.



Good News for EB2

Letís take a look at the backlog information for EB2 visas shown on the CIS website, arranged, by priority dates, area of charge and year:


? Not able to paste the table ?
but this is available at this link

The Worldwide allocation for EB2 is roughly 40,000 visas annually, plus all unused EB1 numbers. For fiscal year 2008, a total of 35,590 employment-based first preference visas were issued. Due to the failure of the CIS to adjudicate enough family based adjustment of status cases, about 25,000 visas from that quota fell over into the employment based quota and a total of 70,135 EB2 visas were issued. For fiscal year 2009, there were considerably fewer family based visas available for use by the EB categories. For FY 2010, the State Department estimates that there will be only about 5,000 such additional visas available. For our purposes, we can assume that EB1 will have about 5,000 leftover visas and another 5,000 will become available from the family based quota. This means that the EB2 visa availability will be approximately 50,000 for this fiscal year.

If we assume that all of the demand shown on the CIS website remains, and that there is no additional demand, the total of pre-approved EB2 cases pending before the CIS with priority dates earlier than 2007 is almost 52,000. In reality, this demand represents about two-thirds of the actual demand, so the likelihood is that the EB2 cutoff date will not move beyond May, 2006 by the end of fiscal year 2010 (September 30, 2010).

If the EB2 cutoff date does reach May, 2006 by the end of FY 2010, then it would likely reach the end of calendar year 2008 (and probably go into early 2009) by the end of fiscal year 2011.



Good Luck TO ALL...
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  #2 (permalink)  
Old 12-03-2009, 07:10 PM
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Default Backlog

Looks pretty severe for EB3.

Perhaps the only way for us through legislative relief. But we dont have anything coming up to provide us some breakthrough.

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  #3 (permalink)  
Old 12-03-2009, 07:20 PM
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Default Backlog..

But some drastic change in the eb categories will happen early next year.

I had same thought during 2007 when the current window came for all EB categories.

Lets just wish that happens.

Wishing good luck to all our beloved EB2 and EB3 category queue waiters...............
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Old 12-03-2009, 08:01 PM
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Default

AT the cost of sounding like a broken record: The only thing that is in our control is educating our lawmakers. Please take an hour of your busy time and go to your local congressman's office. I urge each and every one of us to do this.

Point it out and educate them and tell them about this severe backlog in simple english. Do not be elaborate or use terms like I485 or anything like that. Build a rapport, follow up with articles, and reports.

Now, most people think-how is this going to help?.
But imagine if 10,000 of us go to our local reps. Divide this number by 435 or so house reps ...and it will be an average of 22 people per house reps. Now, we are concentrated in the large urban areas, so we wont visit all 435 house reps. So our number will be 100 or so average per house rep (considering we are in 100 districts).
That is a really good number. Chances are we can influence any legislation in our favor.

We know there wont be 10,000 people doing this. But even 100 do this, it will be worth it. My local congresswoman's office told me that I was the first one from the EB categories to visit them. They were amazed that nobody (read people like us) brought it to their attention. They were very friendly, welcoming and heard me out.

The point is to make them aware, so when a legislation comes on the floor, they are educated about the issues. The rapport we build with their offices, will help us in the future.

Last edited by amitjoey; 12-03-2009 at 08:05 PM.
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  #5 (permalink)  
Old 12-04-2009, 12:23 AM
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Default

How about EB3 ROW? Is that equally bad?
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  #6 (permalink)  
Old 12-04-2009, 01:05 AM
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Default EB3 ROW Movement

The Visa Office had earlier said that they expected to see the cutoff date for Worldwide EB3 move into early 2006 by spring of next year. This seems likely to happen. For single state limited country applicants, however, the story is very different.
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  #7 (permalink)  
Old 12-04-2009, 02:37 AM
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Thumbs up Not as bad

After readings Ron's bulletin, I posted the following questions and his answers are as below,

1). Can a country use more than the 2800 visas in EB3 for a year if there are unused visas in that category? If thats the case, there are about 150k(Does this include dependents?) applications in EB3 and I am assuming there will another say 30k in the next 3 years giving the condition of the economy giving a total of 180k, so should'nt at some point say in the next few years exhaust the backlog(40k a year x 5 years=200k).

Ans: If there are unused visas for Worldwide, then it is possible for people from single state limited countries to use them. At that point, until all of the unused numbers remain available, the single state limit no longer applies. When the visas are used up, then the limit applies again. This is current the case with EB2, where quite a few visas are being issued to citizens of China and India, even though they would otherwise be subject to the single state limit.
Don't look for EB3 Worldwide to become "current" any time soon, however.

2). If EB2 becomes current say in 2012, then I do not believe that the quota for EB2 is going to get filled for the years after that which will lead to visas going to EB3.

ANS: If EB2 is current for all countries, then the unused EB2 numbers will fall down into EB
Again, don't expect this to happen any time soon.

3).Also, if EB2 becomes current, more peple are going to port over to EB2 from EB3, which will help the EB3 backlog.
Ans: This is true.

Though the situation is bad, if EB3 applicants wait it for another 4 to 5 years, I think it will certainly improve greatly given that are going to be lesser and lesser greencard applicants and most of them applying through EB2. People like me who do not have the luxury of porting over to EB2 there is no other go...
__________________
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$300 contributed
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  #8 (permalink)  
Old 12-04-2009, 03:02 PM
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Default Gr8 job

You have done gr8 job and I hope for better situation, may be in 2012.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreenCard4US View Post
After readings Ron's bulletin, I posted the following questions and his answers are as below,

1). Can a country use more than the 2800 visas in EB3 for a year if there are unused visas in that category? If thats the case, there are about 150k(Does this include dependents?) applications in EB3 and I am assuming there will another say 30k in the next 3 years giving the condition of the economy giving a total of 180k, so should'nt at some point say in the next few years exhaust the backlog(40k a year x 5 years=200k).

Ans: If there are unused visas for Worldwide, then it is possible for people from single state limited countries to use them. At that point, until all of the unused numbers remain available, the single state limit no longer applies. When the visas are used up, then the limit applies again. This is current the case with EB2, where quite a few visas are being issued to citizens of China and India, even though they would otherwise be subject to the single state limit.
Don't look for EB3 Worldwide to become "current" any time soon, however.

2). If EB2 becomes current say in 2012, then I do not believe that the quota for EB2 is going to get filled for the years after that which will lead to visas going to EB3.

ANS: If EB2 is current for all countries, then the unused EB2 numbers will fall down into EB
Again, don't expect this to happen any time soon.

3).Also, if EB2 becomes current, more peple are going to port over to EB2 from EB3, which will help the EB3 backlog.
Ans: This is true.

Though the situation is bad, if EB3 applicants wait it for another 4 to 5 years, I think it will certainly improve greatly given that are going to be lesser and lesser greencard applicants and most of them applying through EB2. People like me who do not have the luxury of porting over to EB2 there is no other go...
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